Magic number: zero

Today I got a new cable box for my HDTV, which unfortunately I didn't get working until the fourth inning of the game, but I still got to see the winning runs (gotta love that the eventual winning run was a well-executed suicide squeeze by Lilly) and, of course, Marmol and Wood closing the door in the eighth and ninth. (The Glaus home run was depressing and utterly predictable - like with most of the home runs Lilly gives up, you could see it coming a mile away - but fortunately it ended up not mattering.)

With the division wrapped up, there are now a few things to concentrate on. In order:

1) Wrapping up the best record in the league (I believe the magic number for this is 3)
2) Being able to set the rotation for the playoffs
3) Determining the playoff roster

#1, while not set in stone, seems like all but a foregone conclusion. The Cubs have eight games left, meaning a simple 3-5 record in that span would be enough to clinch the league's best record, and that's if the Phillies don't lose another game, which they almost certainly will.

#2 has some bearing on #1, of course, but I'm not sure that the rotation is going to need much setting. Looking at the current lineup of probables, here's how the next eight games would be started: Dempster, Marquis, Harden, Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster, Marquis, Harden. The last game happens on Sunday, September 28, and the first game of the NLDS is three days, on Wednesday, October 1. If you assume Zambrano starts that one, that means he'll have had fully six days of rest before it, and I'm going to guess he won't be throwing a ton of pitches against the Mets this Wednesday. Assuming Dempster starts Game Two, he'll have had five days of rest, and if Lilly is your Game Three guy, he gets the nod on a full eight days off. Then, if needed, Harden goes on six days' rest (and probably after a kid-gloves outing on the final day of the regular season, if he even goes then; given how well he's pitched on long rest I might give Marshall a start in that spot to save Harden up) and Zambrano comes back for Game Five. And if they do make the NLCS, I'm frankly fine with pretty much any order. Obviously it'd be nice if you could get there in four games or less, enabling Zambrano and Dempster to pitch four of a possible seven games in the NLCS. But there's no reason to get greedy.

#3: I'm assuming the postseason roster is going to consist of 11 pitchers and 14 position players, at least for the first round (if you're not carrying five starters, there's no reason to carry 12 pitchers). Here's my vote:

Starters: Zambrano, Dempster, Lilly, Harden

Marquis has been surprisingly competent in the second half this year, effectively reversing his usual trend. He's got a 3.38 ERA in September (albeit in just 18.2 innings), and in his last eight starts, dating to August 1, he hasn't given up more than 4 runs (and then just twice) and has four quality starts in the group. But with all that said, there's really no need to have five starters for the Division Series. Maybe you could bring him back for the NLCS, if the Cubs get that far.

Relievers: Wood, Marmol, Cotts, Howry, Samardzija, Marshall, (Gaudin, Lieber or Wells)

The first six are pretty obvious. Wood and Marmol are the best the Cubs have, and Samardzija has tailed off a bit, but he's still a better option than the other available ones. Cotts and Marshall are your lefties (and of course Marshall can throw long innings in an absolute pinch), and Howry... well, he's a veteran. And actually, aside from a real stinkbomb four-run, no-out appearance on September 2 at Houston, he hasn't given up a run since August 22 and has allowed just six hits in eight other innings in that time. Okay, only eight innings, but he hasn't looked this good since May. As for the last slot, I'm not sure at the moment about the injury status of Gaudin and Lieber right now. I'd take Gaudin if all were healthy. If Gaudin and Lieber are both question marks, Randy Wells has looked pretty good in a couple outings so maybe you go that direction. Wuertz is about the only other option but I think it's fair to say Piniella isn't exactly crazy about him (and he gave up three of the runs in that ridiculous 14-9 win over the Reds).

Catchers: Soto, Blanco

Duh.

Infield: Lee, DeRosa, Theriot, Ramirez, Fontenot, Cedeno, Ward

No hard choices here.

Outfield: Soriano, Edmonds, Johnson, Fukudome, (Hoffpauir or Pie)

The only real question here is whether you value Hoffpauir's bat or Pie's value as a pinch-runner and defensive replacement. The latter might be more important in the playoffs (and Pie has shown the ability to get a hit on occasion anyway, and he's also left-handed), so I might go with Pie here, especially since Hoffpauir's defensive value is pretty much nil.

Looking at that lineup, it's almost funny how there's no real difficult decision to be made. You'll probably live with any of the back-end relief pitchers, and Hoffpauir vs. Pie is probably a tossup as far as how much value either will give you, albeit maybe in different ways. If Marquis isn't on the roster, you may prefer Pie to pinch-run for Ward in close spots, of which there will assuredly be some.

There's still some baseball to be played, of course, but we can't avoid it now: the Cubs are in the playoffs.