Change of plans

The Cubs officially announced their playoff rotation today. Fortunately, this year the Cubs have four starters and won't have to do anything like pull Zambrano a little early in Game One to save him for Game Four. Of course, they also won't have to do that this year because Zambrano isn't starting Game One. Your planned rotation:

Game One (Wednesday): Ryan Dempster
Game Two (Thursday): Carlos Zambrano
Game Three (Saturday): Rich Harden
Game Four (Sunday): Ted Lilly
Game Five (Tuesday): Ryan Dempster

I think this works out pretty well. For one thing, it's obvious that Dempster has been the Cubs' best pitcher all season, so why not reward him? He's also got a 14-3 home record, lest we forget, so having him possibly start two games, both at home, seems like it would work out pretty well. Better still, you're starting your two ground-ball pitchers at home and your two fly-ball pitchers on the road, and "the road" is looking more and more like it's going to be pitcher's park Chavez Ravine.

I think it's time to revisit the playoff roster debate:

Starters: Dempster, Zambrano, Harden, Lilly
Relievers: Wood, Marmol, Marquis, Marshall, Howry, Samardzija, Cotts

I'm not totally sure about Marquis. Remember last year during the season-ending series in Cincinnati, when he was put in as a reliever, got shelled, and then afterwards said that he really only feels comfortable when he's starting? He's been good down the stretch this year, in defiance of his usual form, but he's right - his value is as a fifth starter who can usually give you six innings and maybe only allow three or four runs. But he often allows all those runs in one inning. I guess he could be the long-relief backup plan should anything happen with Zambrano or Harden (or, for that matter, the occasionally homer-happy Lilly), but man - if we see Marquis trotting in to save the Cubs' season in Game Three or Four, I don't think I'm going to be feeling very good. As for the rest of them, I don't really like the last three, but where else do you go? You need that second lefty in Cotts, and Howry and Samardzija, while they haven't necessarily been great, have probably been the two most effective relievers outside of the Wood-Marmol team in the last month. The only other possibility is Kevin Hart; Gaudin pitched himself out of consideration last night, and Wells and Lieber are hurt.

Eleven pitchers allows for 14 position players, which is nice. I think the debate here is about the same as the last time I talked about it:

Catchers (2): Soto, Blanco
Infielders (6): Lee, DeRosa, Theriot, Ramirez, Fontenot, Cedeno
Outfielders (4): Soriano, Edmonds, Johnson, Fukudome
Bench (2): Ward, Hoffpauir

I've been on board with taking Pie over Hoffpauir, but I was thinking about this just now and changed my mind for a couple reasons, and Hoffpauir's recent 5-for-5, two-homer night doesn't even have much to do with it.

Reason #1: Carrying three center fielders is crazy.
I mean, if you're not going to carry three catchers, there's no reason to carry three center fielders, and you've already got the Edmonds/Johnson team platooning at that spot. And let's not forget that in an absolute pinch you can switch DeRo into right (since you are carrying three guys who can play second base) and move Fukudome into center. Pie may be a better center field defender than any of them, but is it by so much that you have to have him on the team?

Reason #2: Bringing Pie over Hoffpauir basically says, "We're valuing late-inning defense and pinch-running over pinch-hitting."
If you bring Pie, he's probably your absolute last pinch-hit choice off the bench, unless you're trying to create a lefty-righty matchup. But Hoffpauir also creates that matchup, and he's a much better shot to get a hit, it seems to me. Pie can pinch-run, but so could Cedeno, Fontenot, or Marquis if it came to that. And as for late-inning center-field defense, you can replace Edmonds with Johnson if you're so worried. Johnson himself probably doesn't even need replacing.

So yeah, Ward and Hoffpauir are basically the same guy - slow-footed lefties who can play first and, if you're really desperate, an outfield corner, but who in the playoffs will only really be used for pinch-hitting anyway. And if someone gets injured, you are allowed to replace that player for the series with someone not on the 25-man (this rule only started in 2007, apparently), so it's not like you absolutely have to plan for all contingencies at the start of the series.

So... the Dodgers, probably? Unless we beat the Brewers the next two days, which isn't impossible. (Even then, the Mets would have to win their next two, and I don't know about that.) The Dodgers don't have lefty power, which is nice, but I do worry a little about their pitching, as I've said.