Wednesday, April 18, 2007

Z Minus

What do you suppose are the odds that Jim Hendry is watching each new shitty Carlos Zambrano start with secret, unexpressed glee? Because right now Zambrano is saving him a shitload of money. Though he managed not to take the loss thanks to a Cubs rally (later squandered by Scott Eyre), Zambrano gave up five runs on eight hits, with two home runs and five walks, in six innings. He did strike out six, but big fucking deal, really. Amazingly, Zambrano's season up until this point has been so bad that five earned runs in six innings actually lowered his ERA from 7.88 to 7.77.

So, Zambrano this season has pitched 22 innings, struck out 16, walked 16, allowed 19 runs, and gone 1-2. His win (over Milwaukee on April 7) was his only start of four that could even be considered a good start; in his two losses he's struck out a total of four batters.

I mean, I know it's early, but have you ever seen anyone play worse when playing for a lucrative contract in his prime? If Zambrano had started the season on fire, he would have forced Hendry's hand; with Z struggling out of the gate, Hendry can bide his time, and if Zambrano doesn't right the ship I'm sure Jim will be ready to swoop in with a lower offer. Not that Omar Minaya won't throw nine figures at Zambrano even if he goes 12-18 this year... but you can bet no one else will. And frankly, even Minaya might look cross-eyed at that one. But hey, at least Zambrano leads the team in OPS.

Really, how well could things possibly have worked for Hendry? Sure, the Soriano signing has been something of a bust so far, and that was where all the money went, but if Soriano comes back healthy and can be moved out of center, I think he'll be all right. Meanwhile, the two prizes of the pitching market - which the Cubs needed more desperately than another leadoff guy who can't get on base, even if he hits 45 home runs - were Schmidt and Zito, a combined 2-4 with an ERA over 6.00 through three starts (and Schmidt is now on the DL). At the same time, Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis have a combined ERA of 2.50 and are 2-2 total (due more to bad luck than their pitching), with five quality starts out of their six total appearances. If Zambrano could turn it around, this pitching staff is, somewhat improbably, setting itself up to be something of a force in the NL. If only the hitting and bullpen were more consistent.

Monday, April 16, 2007

Seeing red

I would swear that up until last year or so, the Cubs had owned the Reds for a number of years. The Reds' offense has improved, but their pitching really doesn't seem dramatically better, so I'm not sure why they've suddenly become such a bugaboo. Let's recap the most recent series:

Friday, 4/13: Reds 6, Cubs 5
Zambrano mostly coasts through four innings, then suddenly fails to show up for the top of the fifth, allowing four runs and leaving the bases loaded before being yanked without having recorded a single out. Will Ohman promptly walks the next two guys, saddling Big Z with the loss. My dad speculates that it was all Zambrano's time on the basepaths that wore him out for the fifth - he had just homered in the bottom of the fourth, and in the second he doubled and scored a run. But shouldn't a guy who wants $15 million a year be just a little more of an athlete? Cripes. Of course, the Cubs' inability to score even one more run after the fourth inning isn't exactly inspiring.

Odd note about this game: in one of those weird quirks of baseball's rules, Todd Coffey got the win for the Reds in this game even though the winning run scored in the top of the fifth and Coffey didn't enter the game until the bottom of the seventh.

Saturday, 4/14: Cubs 7, Reds 0
Thank God for Rich Hill. At the risk of jinxing it, he is rapidly becoming the ace of the staff. He did walk four guys, but he still went 7 with just 95 pitches, and lowered his ERA to 0.64. Yeah, it's only two starts, but given how he finished last year it looks like he's finally got it. Fun fact: Hill, at age 27, is a year older than Zambrano.

Sunday, 4/15: Reds 1, Cubs 0
Now this was a traditional Cubs suck-job. Lilly strikes out ten in six innings, gives up two hits, the Reds scratch out a run... and the Cubs lose because the bats go absolutely frigid against Kyle Freaking Lohse of all people, who strikes out a career-high 12 in eight innings. In the sixth, it was first and third with no outs, and then Lohse struck out the next two guys. Almost anything else would have scored a run, but no. Three of the Cubs' hits came off the bat of Ryan Theriot, who is making a really good case to stay in the lineup (although where do you put him when Ramirez comes back?), but that was the only real positive of the day, aside from Lilly having a third good start but having nothing to show for it for the second straight outing.

4-7 is hardly the end of the world, but given how wide open this division should be, the Cubs cannot afford to lose so many games to division rivals this early in the year. Of course, the team is built almost entirely of slow starters, so come mid-May things may well be all right, but we'd better be careful that things haven't gotten out of control by then. The staff seems all right, assuming Zambrano doesn't flake out - I really hope this isn't extension-related spazzing out - and the team really should hit more than it has. Let's not rush to too many conclusions from 11 games. That said, as they say, pennants aren't won in April but they can be lost. Things need to start getting a bit better.

Sunday, April 01, 2007

A season on the brink

Most years, I go into the new Cubs season with a healthy sense of optimism. I look at what are usually a handful of fairly low-key offseason moves and a few players coming back from injury and say, "Well, if x happens, and y happens, and z happens, I think we could have a shot at the division." And I look forward to the start of the year, whereupon I am optimistic for maybe two and a half months before it (usually) becomes clear that it's not going to happen yet again.

This year, frankly, I'm terrified. Because after all the money that was spent, anything less than a playoff berth will seem like a failure, and god forbid this team fails to break .500 - it'll be a complete and total embarrassment. The one relief - if you'd call it that - is that almost no one is picking the Cubs to win the division or anything else. Who needs that kind of pressure? On the other hand, they're not doing so because despite the money, this team still has obvious flaws. They have too many flyball pitchers in a park where pop-ups find the basket on windy days. Their planned leadoff guy is speedy - when he gets on. But he's also a strikeout machine with a career OBP below .330, not to mention a CF who's never played center and apparently isn't looking that good out there. There's no obvious closer unless Dempster can regain form. Etc.

The thing is, if Zambrano gets signed (and it now seems like he will), this team will have a pretty strong core - Zambrano, Lee, Ramirez, Soriano - for years to come. That should be inspiring. Instead I'm just worried that they'll mess it up. If this were any other team the fans would be turning cartwheels, and here I am just waiting for the other shoe to drop. Isn't being a Cubs fan great?