Tuesday, April 25, 2006

In attendance

Today was the coldest day in weeks, so of course it was the game Drew and I had tickets for. Fortunately, the following things were true:

(a) It was a Cubs win (most important)
(b) Marshall pitched well
(c) It was over in not much more than two hours (not as important as the win, but pretty nice)

I was almost surprised by how confident Marshall seemed. He gave up a couple hot shots, and possibly if the wind hadn't been blowing in he could have given up a homer somewhere, and sure it was the Marlins, but the bottom line is he gave up just two hits and two walks in seven innings, with seven strikeouts. He didn't allow a run and brought his ERA all the way down to 4.22, and if he keeps pitching like this, I think there's a very good chance that he could hang around as a fifth starter even after everyone comes back.

(I mean, say Prior, Wood, and Miller are all back by the end of May - but say that Marshall is something like 6-1 with a 3.25 ERA at that point. You'd really send him to the bullpen or Iowa? I sure wouldn't. Not that a six-man rotation would be the worst thing in the world either, especially with half the starters coming off of injuries.)

Three runs on five hits isn't tremendously impressive, but this team seems to be finding ways to win in a lot of its games (usually only failing to do so when the starting pitching seriously falters). Yeah, it's only the Marlins, but you have to love Murton's big hits, and the squeeze play in the seventh was a ballsy call that paid off. (You can't always tell that well from the bleachers, but the Cubs' runners seemed to be just safe in at least three cases today, that being one of them.) I may have said it before, but I love - love - that this team has speed now, and I like that Baker actually appears to be using it. (I never thought he'd call a squeeze.)

Oddly, Baker appears to have taken past criticisms of his managing style to heart. The Cubs are stealing bases - you could argue that this is due to finally having some personnel with speed, of course, but Baker's teams have never been that big on the stolen base - he hasn't managed a team that finished in the top half of the NL in swipes since the 1998 Giants, back when Barry Bonds was still a 30/30 guy. (In what is most likely not any kind of coincidence, the '01 Giants finished dead last.)

Plus, early in the season he was yanking starters at the first sign of trouble. The middle relief is much improved, but if Dusty was worried about gassing the starters, it seemed for a while that the relief corps had equal potential to be worn down too soon. Fortunately, Cubs starters have now gone at least seven in three straight games, which you'd like to see more of. (With Guzman taking the mound tomorrow just after being called up, I don't know if that streak will last, but let's hope it does.) Though it is of course richly ironic that just after this team finally starts to gain some pitching consistency, their best hitter goes down. Grr.

Monday, April 24, 2006

Eight is enough

For seven innings, it was a pretty lousy game for the Cubs, but the middle relief kept them in the game (who could have foreseen that this would suddenly turn into one of the team's strengths after being a major hindrance for so long?) and the eighth was just awesome. In the car, I turned the radio on just as the Marlins were changing pitchers, so I heard Walker's walk, Ramirez's chopper (3-1), Barrett's K, Murton's single (3-3), and Jones' homer (6-3!) as well as the rest of the eighth and another smooth ninth for Dempster. Obviously you'd love to see the Cubs win every game 10-0, but you have to win games like this and in other years the Cubs might not have. I happen to think that this year's team is pretty resilient. We'll see.

Figures my tickets would be for a Dontrelle Willis game. I guess it's mildly exciting to see a game in which the Marlins' only two players of any note will be playing (if your manager is at worst the third-most famous player on your team, that's probably not a good sign - I'm looking at you, Nationals), but Willis scares me to death, mostly because the Cubs rarely hit him. At least I thought so until I looked up the stats, showing that Willis is 2-2 with a 4.64 ERA vs. the Cubs in the last three years, and the Cubs hit nearly .300 off him. In fact, the only NL teams against which Willis has done worse in that span are the Dodgers (1-3, 8.50) and Giants (0-3, 7.83). So maybe this is a good sign after all. Still, tonight's game is the kind that leaves you sorry you weren't there, and hoping it doesn't qualify as a near miss.

I have to go see Maddux pitch sometime this year. Hopefully in the next few weeks.

Rumors hold that the Cubs are looking into Tony Clark. You know, if the guy can't start for the Diamondbacks, maybe that should be kind of a warning sign.

Streak-stopper

Greg Maddux has now won his first four starts for the first time in his entire career. This includes 1994 and 1995, both awesome seasons for him. Unreal. I don't know what this guy ate in the offseason but I hope it has a few more months in it. Can you imagine if he won 20+ games and the Cy Young? I probably should stop saying stuff like that.

The Cubs demoted Jerome Williams and brought up Angel Guzman from Iowa. Because really, 1-2 with a 6.61 ERA against Triple-A hitting is way more impressive than 0-2 with a 7.30 ERA against major-league hitting. And didn't Williams pitch pretty well against the Pirates and just have the bad luck that the team couldn't hit Duke that day? Seriously, what? It seems a bit early in the year to give up on the guy after one bad outing (against, you know, the best team in the league, more or less). I wonder if the Lee injury just has the front office more panicked about any bad play and more willing to shake things up. I guess that really isn't such a bad thing in the long run. Still, bit of an odd move. But let's hope Guzman pitches well.

Saturday, April 22, 2006

Just kill me.

Peter Gammons on Mike & Mike this morning:

"Derrek had told me [during the Cardinals series at Wrigley], basically that his deal was done, his contract extension. And I gave him the usual New York/Boston line, why wouldn't you wait, go out on the free agent market and wait for the Yankees and Red Sox to bid? And he said, 'First of all, I love playing here, and second, how do I know I won't break my wrist two weeks from now?'"

Unbelievable.

Thursday, April 20, 2006

It figures.

Call it "Cubbies' Law": Anything that can go wrong for the Cubs, will go wrong for the Cubs. Today we had the most recent and one of the best examples to date of this phenomenon: Derrek Lee has Rafael Furcal run into him at first during a game and ends up breaking two bones in his wrist. Lee's out at least 8-10 weeks. The Cubs' season? Likely out with him.

This phenomenon most recently reared its head in 2003, of course - Mark Prior collided with Marcus Giles on the basepaths and missed nearly a month during a key part of the season (July into August). Of course, Prior came back in August and went 10-1 with an ERA around 2.00 in his last 11 starts. Cubbies' Law was saving its coup de grace that season, of course - it waited for That Game, to borrow Bill Simmons' term for another disastrous Game Six.

We can't allow ourselves to wallow in misery, however. Prior, Wood and Miller are supposedly almost back (another couple weeks), and if they play well this team could at least hold the fort down until the All-Star break. Remember, the 2003 Cubs were 46-46 when Prior went down in July, and they still won the division. Cautious optimism? Reckless optimism? Outright stupidity?

The question is this: with whom do you replace Lee? It's probably too early to swing any kind of major trade, if indeed such a trade is to be had, and anyway it's not like Lee's dead - there's no reason to mortgage the future in any way for a two-month rental who you don't plan to start for the whole season. Various minor leaguers have been bandied about, but they're not exactly big names - Ryan Theriot? Brandon Sing? Michael Restovich? John Mabry is a possibility, but that thins out the bench (and you still have to call up someone). Walker could move to first and give Hairston or Perez an everyday job at second.

That's acceptable enough, I guess, but it sure doesn't make a division winner. Then again, would anyone? You don't exactly replace .335/46/107, even if Lee wasn't going to repeat those numbers to the hit.

And with that, a series at New Busch, or whatever they're calling it. Great time to have that one.

Monday, April 17, 2006

Cy Old

Possible alternate title for this entry: "40 and Fabulous." Maddux didn't miss a beat in tonight's start, what with the eight innings of three-hit ball, one run, no walks, and six strikeouts. He gave up a few long outs, but the Dodgers never significantly threatened; the four runs were more than enough, especially with Dempster slamming the door once more. I've decided I need to see Maddux pitch in person at least once this year... and maybe a Maddux jersey. If there's one guy where I wouldn't be thinking, "Well, what if he gets traded or leaves," it would be Maddux. Plus, future Hall of Famer (even if, as I noted in the main blog, he's going in as a Brave).

Even though Pierre hasn't found his hitting touch yet, I love that this team finally has speed. Pierre, Cedeno, Murton, Pagan when healthy, even Lee - finally we're seeing a Dusty Baker team do a good job of manufacturing runs on the basepaths.

Tonight's game lasted 1:59. Under two hours! To say Maddux was locked in would be underestimating it; he threw just 87 pitches in 8 IP. I know fans like to see home runs, but it really is a pleasure watching a game this well-pitched. Anyone who can't appreciate that shouldn't bother with baseball.

The rumor was that the Cubs might bring up Felix Pie to take Pagan's spot in the clubhouse, but it went to David Aardsma instead. I'm fine with that. No need to rush Pie (although can he play right? Jones is now hitting .091), and I'll take all the bullpen assistance the Cubs can bring in.

I'm curious to see how Zambrano does tomorrow. He's certainly looked a bit flaky at times this season, but this Dodgers team has been offensively challenged in recent games. Maybe that'll give him a jump-start.

Sunday, April 16, 2006

Rusch job

I didn't see much of today's game (like I'm getting up for a 12:30 start on a Sunday!), but from the stats and the highlights, it looked like Rusch did pretty well. Six innings, five hits, five Ks - 3 earned runs, but those were all on the same hit, so at least he wasn't just giving up hit after hit there. Rusch is a flyball pitcher; he's going to give up home runs sometimes. At least it was only one and not four like in his last start. Also, the Cubs were up 7-0 already when Wilson went deep, and the relievers handled things - three innings, two hits, no runs. It was good to see that Novoa pitched well - 1.2 IP, one hit, one walk, just 16 pitches. Given that they sent Wuertz down to bring Novoa up, it's good that he started off with a nice outing. More importantly, the Cubs got the series win - that's four series so far and just one loss (although just two wins thanks to the 1-1 season opener in Cincy). The Cubs have owned the Pirates at PNC recently, though.

Although the Cubs lost - it figures - I was also glad to see that Jerome Williams had a good game on Saturday. We really need a solid third starter to emerge in the absence of Wood, Prior, and Miller; Rusch still might be it if Sunday's game was indicative of him settling down, and Marshall's been decent but I don't want to have to lay that on a rookie if it can be helped. Let's see if Williams can keep it up.

Maddux goes tomorrow in the first game against the Dodgers. Night game; 9 PM out here, so I'm definitely watching that one. Hopefully it doesn't go too late.

Friday, April 14, 2006

Marshall law

Right now this pitching staff has me really, really worried. Three home runs in four batters? Not great. Marshall did look pretty good through five - I wasn't a fan of the bases-loaded, no-out jam in the fourth, but the fact that he was able to get out of it allowing just two runs says tons about his composure. Drew and I are looking into seeing a game on the 25th which, by my calculations, Marshall would start if the rotation holds.

The kid looks to have decent stuff. His fastball doesn't break 92, but coming down from that 6'7" frame helps, as does the fact that he's a lefty, and he has a nice sweeping curve that he used several times to good effect. That said, he hardly looks unhittable; the Pirates went down quickly the first time through the order, but they handled him a little better after that. It also would have been nice if he could have gone more than five. That's nine games this season and Cubs starters have yet to go even seven innings. Yeah, it's early, and yeah, it's a patchwork rotation at the moment. But the last thing this team needs is a gassed bullpen come late summer. Anyway, congrats to Marshall on his first win (and first Cubs win), as well as his first hit and RBI. Way to help your own cause!

Much more pleased with the hitting, as you'd expect. I love Walker; it's a shame this guy can't be an everyday player, but at least he's making his statement when he gets up. Murton also continues to get me excited - nice double, nicer triple. Amazing that he ends up being the only real value we got from the Garciaparra trade and yet I still feel like we made out better than anyone involved, long-term. Okay, Boston got the World Series out of it. But other than that. (Cabrera and Mientkiewicz are no longer with Boston; Justin Jones has yet to play in the majors; Alex Gonzalez didn't even finish that season with Montreal; Brendan Harris and Francis Beltran have made no big-league noise yet. In other words, there were four teams and eight players involved in that deal and Murton is the only guy starting for the team to which he was traded, a year and a half later. I'll take it.)

I'm not quite as happy with Juan Pierre, who teased us with a 3-for-6 opening day and hasn't had more than one hit in a game since. Right now he's the ghost of CP in center, at least at the plate. He's not, historically, this slow a starter, not even last year (his worst overall). But this is a new team for him, and all that. You have to think the hits will come. Still, right now it just doesn't seem like he's making great contact; rather than hitting line drives and flares, spraying hits like he has in the past, he's hitting a lot of weak grounders. I think he'll figure it out. He'd better, anyway - didn't we trade three pitchers to get this guy? We could use those freaking pitchers right about now.

Thursday, April 13, 2006

Reds 8, Cubs 3

My dad, for about as long as I can remember, has been saying that the Cubs need to blow up Wrigley Field, his main reason for that theory being that the ballpark has a tendency to turn pop flies into home runs (at least when the wind is blowing out, which seems to be eight times out of ten). The bigger problem as I see it is not that Wrigley does this but that the Cubs, for reasons which defy all conventional logic, never seem to profit from it as much as visiting teams do.

Take this Reds series. For all three games, the wind was blowing out pretty steadily. The one game the Cubs won was a 4-1 win in which no home runs were hit by either side, and in fact three of the Cub runs in that game were helped by five Cincinnati errors in the first three innings. The other two games, the Reds won by a combined score of 17-5. In those two games, Cincinnati outhomered the Cubs by a margin of 8-2. 8-2! This despite the fact that the Cubs were facing a pitcher on Thursday who gave up 83 home runs over the last two seasons and whose ERA in 2005 was 6.47.

To be fair, Thursday's lineup for the Cubs featured minimal power apart from Derrek Lee (Aramis is still out, Jones [ha!] is still out, and Barrett was out because Blanco was catching Zambrano). Lee saw almost no pitches to hit if the Gamecast was any indication, which is probably because he had Matt Murton hitting behind him. Murton, to his credit, drove in all three Cub runs, including the only homer of the game for the home team (a solo shot in the fourth). I like this kid, but still, Ramirez he is not.

But still. Eric Milton was on the mound and the wind was blowing out. And the Cubs could only score three runs?

I guess I shouldn't be complaining that much. They're still 5-3 with that sweep of the Cardinals, and any sweep in a series is a good thing. I guess I'm just annoyed because there should be more. I expect the Reds to score some runs; they're a homer-happy team. But their pitching is not good. Bronson Arroyo and Eric Milton are probably running neck-and-neck for ace duties, which is embarrassing. On the other hand, Milton just outdueled our supposed ace (the maddeningly inconsistent Zambrano, who followed up both home runs he allowed by ending those innings immediately with a combined three strikeouts, and also surrendered a balk of all things).

So, yeah, right now this rotation is being held together with hot glue and hair ties. And I've said all along that staying competitive until May is the big key. But it would be nice to see some more consistency from the offense - sure, 16 runs is an obvious fluke, but going from 8 in the third St. Louis game to nine in three games against the pitching-challenged Reds? Woof. Fair play to the Reds, but this is a team we have to be beating if we plan on winning the division (or even the wild-card). It's like an NCAA Tournament résumé - sure, it looks good if you beat a #1 team, but you also need to beat those teams you're supposed to beat. And as arrogant as it may sound, the Reds are a team that, all things being equal, I think we're supposed to beat. Yet so far we've had quite a time of it.

Just like starting over

"Long-time" readers will recall that I tried this last year, but I started at right around the same time the Cubs began to fade for good, and as a result, I quickly lost interest.

New year, new attitude. I've rediscovered, or in some cases just discovered, my sports fandom in the past year or so, and it's time I did the same for the Cubs. They've always been my favorite sports team, since baseball is my favorite sport, but I think not growing up in Chicago stifled my growth as a fan. It was all too easy to simply tune the Cubs out during mediocre or bad seasons, of which there were plenty during my youth; there was never the same suffering as if I lived in Chicago. And since the only local team I followed at the time was the Devils, and since the Bulls were America's Team during their title runs, I got spoiled - the teams I got to watch were teams that won.

2003 changed everything, but it was still my first moment of true suffering in a lifetime of being a fan. And since I haven't been to Wrigley since May of that season, despite living so close since September of 2004, you could argue that I didn't learn anything at all.

No longer. This team drives me crazy in both good and bad senses of the word, and this is, henceforth, a place to get that out, come hell or high water, come the World Series or a 155-game losing streak to end this season. Call it a blog version of an exposure exercise, as my girlfriend would say - I can't keep feeling like writing about the Cubs, one of the few things I really want to do all baseball season, causes them to lose. And I can't keep clogging up my main blog with huge Cubs posts, lest everyone stop showing up. So here goes nothing.