In the regular season, the Cubs hit .271, but hit .281 with men on and .278 with RISP.
In the postseason, I believe - though I'm not looking this up - that they hit .104, and .037 with RISP. Whatever it was, it was terrible.
The Cubs played like it was May all over again. They played like a team that looked demoralized, that couldn't buy a hit or a break, like a team that won 45 of its 85 games against the five other teams from the NL Central. They looked, in a word, pathetic. They gave up 16 runs in three games to a team that averaged less than four and a half in the regular season. They got killed by Chris Young and Stephen Drew, who between them didn't even hit .240. They hit into approximately 74 double plays in three games. They looked abominable. The 1998 team put up more of a fight than this. It made me embarrassed to be a Cubs fan.
In the days or weeks to come, I'll talk about what I want to see from the 2008 team, the team burdened with the responsibility of stopping a century-long World Series drought. But for now I think I'm done with this team for a little bit.
Saturday, October 06, 2007
Friday, October 05, 2007
Game 2: Absolute disaster
Pessimist: Good thing Lou pulled Zambrano for Marmol last night to save him for Game Four. Is "Game Four" the name of the 16-inch softball league team he'll be pitching for on Sunday?
Optimist: Rough outing for Lilly, I know. But the bats woke up a little.
P: Great. Maybe by April they'll actually be ready to win a game.
O: 0-2 is hardly an insurmountable hole. Boston started 0-2 at Oakland in 2003, then won the next three games, including Game Five in Oakland.
P: Great. It's happened four times ever out of 48 divisional series. I'm brimming with confidence.
O: I'm picking up a little sarcasm here.
P: Oh, you think? Let's see: the supposed stopper looks like shit and gets shelled by a team that hit .251 collectively during the season. The lineup, once again, barely hits. Ramirez was beyond useless. They teased us in the late innings only to end up going down swinging yet again. And I had to watch all those fucking fairweather fans wave their fucking pompoms. You know you're dealing with a shitty baseball town when the stadium is full of idiots holding some toy like a pompom or a rumble stick, wearing some jersey they probably bought in the gift shop an hour earlier. They probably sold it out by putting tickets in every other issue of the Arizona Republic.
O: You done?
P: No, I'm not fucking done. If I have to hear Dick Stockton say how Augie Fucking Ojeda is "haunting his ex-teammates" one more time - never mind that Ojeda last played for the Cubs in 2003, meaning he was teammates with exactly three guys currently on the roster - I'm going to fucking lose it. Watching that ball ricochet off his skull in the ninth was a little satisfying, at least, but not nearly good enough. The worst thing about the D-Bags is they're a team full of those "scrappy, gritty players" that the sports press just loves to fellate. Never mind that none of them can hit worth a lick - if they suck at the plate and luckily manage to outperform their expected win total, they must be gritty! I hope Eric Byrnes' ACL rips in half in Game 3, whether we win or not.
O: Classy.
P: See if I care. I'm fucking pissed off right now. I don't care if the Diamondbacks won 90 games. Look at the stats! They're a fucking shitty team! They won 90 games based on luck and occasional good pitching. It's gotta run out sooner or later.
O: You actually sound a little optimistic there.
P: Fuck off. It probably won't matter in this series since the Cubs can't hit for shit anyway. But I'm looking forward to seeing the Rockies fucking smoke them. That and I get to concentrate my energy on the Yankees losing.
O: Would you at least concede that this series isn't over yet?
P: Of course it's fucking over. Have you even been watching these games? They can't hit, they can't pitch.
O: They've had some bad luck too, though. Yeah, lots of strikeouts, but they've hit a lot of solid balls that have just found gloves.
P: Is that supposed to cheer me up?
O: It should, a little. That's the sort of thing that tends to even out. Likewise, the Diamondbacks seem to be finding a lot of gaps right now. Their BABIP for the series is probably enormous. That can't possibly last.
P: They only need it to last for one more game. Probably not that difficult. And if you thought the Cubs were pressing in Game One, wait until you see them in front of a despondent home crowd with their backs against the wall! Oh yeah, that'll be fun. Can you even give me a reason to watch that game?
O: Rich Hill, 2007: 4-0, 0.96 ERA on six or more days of rest. Six days going into Saturday.
P: And at least there won't be any fucking pompoms.
Optimist: Rough outing for Lilly, I know. But the bats woke up a little.
P: Great. Maybe by April they'll actually be ready to win a game.
O: 0-2 is hardly an insurmountable hole. Boston started 0-2 at Oakland in 2003, then won the next three games, including Game Five in Oakland.
P: Great. It's happened four times ever out of 48 divisional series. I'm brimming with confidence.
O: I'm picking up a little sarcasm here.
P: Oh, you think? Let's see: the supposed stopper looks like shit and gets shelled by a team that hit .251 collectively during the season. The lineup, once again, barely hits. Ramirez was beyond useless. They teased us in the late innings only to end up going down swinging yet again. And I had to watch all those fucking fairweather fans wave their fucking pompoms. You know you're dealing with a shitty baseball town when the stadium is full of idiots holding some toy like a pompom or a rumble stick, wearing some jersey they probably bought in the gift shop an hour earlier. They probably sold it out by putting tickets in every other issue of the Arizona Republic.
O: You done?
P: No, I'm not fucking done. If I have to hear Dick Stockton say how Augie Fucking Ojeda is "haunting his ex-teammates" one more time - never mind that Ojeda last played for the Cubs in 2003, meaning he was teammates with exactly three guys currently on the roster - I'm going to fucking lose it. Watching that ball ricochet off his skull in the ninth was a little satisfying, at least, but not nearly good enough. The worst thing about the D-Bags is they're a team full of those "scrappy, gritty players" that the sports press just loves to fellate. Never mind that none of them can hit worth a lick - if they suck at the plate and luckily manage to outperform their expected win total, they must be gritty! I hope Eric Byrnes' ACL rips in half in Game 3, whether we win or not.
O: Classy.
P: See if I care. I'm fucking pissed off right now. I don't care if the Diamondbacks won 90 games. Look at the stats! They're a fucking shitty team! They won 90 games based on luck and occasional good pitching. It's gotta run out sooner or later.
O: You actually sound a little optimistic there.
P: Fuck off. It probably won't matter in this series since the Cubs can't hit for shit anyway. But I'm looking forward to seeing the Rockies fucking smoke them. That and I get to concentrate my energy on the Yankees losing.
O: Would you at least concede that this series isn't over yet?
P: Of course it's fucking over. Have you even been watching these games? They can't hit, they can't pitch.
O: They've had some bad luck too, though. Yeah, lots of strikeouts, but they've hit a lot of solid balls that have just found gloves.
P: Is that supposed to cheer me up?
O: It should, a little. That's the sort of thing that tends to even out. Likewise, the Diamondbacks seem to be finding a lot of gaps right now. Their BABIP for the series is probably enormous. That can't possibly last.
P: They only need it to last for one more game. Probably not that difficult. And if you thought the Cubs were pressing in Game One, wait until you see them in front of a despondent home crowd with their backs against the wall! Oh yeah, that'll be fun. Can you even give me a reason to watch that game?
O: Rich Hill, 2007: 4-0, 0.96 ERA on six or more days of rest. Six days going into Saturday.
P: And at least there won't be any fucking pompoms.
Wednesday, October 03, 2007
Game 1: Not what you like to see
I know this is campy and has been done to death, but here's the optimist and pessimist in me battling it out after the opening 3-1 loss.
Optimist: All right, disappointing start. I'm not going to sugarcoat it. But you have to be encouraged by the fact that the Diamondbacks clearly have no offense. If the Cubs hit at all, how do they not win any game not being started by Webb? He can't start more than two; ergo, Cubs win.
Pessimist: They could keep swinging at just about every pitch, for one thing. I know Webb's good, but is he really that ridiculously deceptive? He made Lee look terrible (and Lee knew it) - I swear Derrek swung at something like five pitches that might have hit him if he didn't foul them off. And how many first pitch outs were there? At least a handful. Way to make the guy work.
O: All right, they didn't look as good as they could have at the plate. But when they made contact, they hit the ball pretty well a lot of the time, and just had a few bad breaks. Ramirez flew out twice to the warning track - in Wrigley he probably has two homers. Anyway, win tomorrow and you still take home-field advantage away from Arizona.
P: Well, Lilly has been the stopper, but the Cubs haven't done great against Doug Davis historically - they only hit .235 off him, and we all know they struggle against lefties.
O: Ah, they hit .263 off lefties. Could have been better but it could have been a lot worse, really. And they have beaten Davis five times in twelve decisions; he hasn't been completely dominant against them or anything.
P: Whatever. And what was up with taking Zambrano out? The guy was coasting! That move lost the game, right there.
O: It did, but it might have won the series. Lou already announced his intention to start Zambrano on short rest in Game Four...
P: You've gotta get to Game Four first! You can't gamble like that in the playoffs, you have to take your chance to win!
O: With the way the offense was going, would it have mattered that much if Zambrano had thrown 30 more pitches?
P: You're starting to sound like me.
O: You get my point. I mean, you're telling me that when Marmol came in you thought he was going to blow up? Even you had to think the seventh inning was pretty safe.
P: Yeah, I'll be honest, if I expected anyone to blow up it would have been Dempster, or maybe if Lou had brought Eyre in. Not Marmol so much.
O: It only looks like a bad move in retrospect. This isn't leaving Pedro Martinez in to face Jorge Posada; Marmol was lights-out all year and Lou trusted him in that spot. He had a bad inning; it happens to the best of them.
P: Yeah, well, it was a pretty bad time for it to happen to the best of them.
O: Sure. But still, I think with Webb out of the way, you have to like the Cubs' chances in these next two games. Arizona isn't going to be able to win this series scoring three runs a game. I'd bet on that, if I gambled.
P: They don't have to face top-form Z over the next couple games, either.
O: You know as well as I do that Lilly's been about as good as Zambrano this year, and Hill is 4-0 with a 0.96 ERA in his four starts this year that came after 6 or more non-start days - and he'll have had six off days when he goes on Saturday.
P: Well... can we at least agree that Soriano gave the Cubs nothing tonight?
O: Well, yeah. He sucked.
Optimist: All right, disappointing start. I'm not going to sugarcoat it. But you have to be encouraged by the fact that the Diamondbacks clearly have no offense. If the Cubs hit at all, how do they not win any game not being started by Webb? He can't start more than two; ergo, Cubs win.
Pessimist: They could keep swinging at just about every pitch, for one thing. I know Webb's good, but is he really that ridiculously deceptive? He made Lee look terrible (and Lee knew it) - I swear Derrek swung at something like five pitches that might have hit him if he didn't foul them off. And how many first pitch outs were there? At least a handful. Way to make the guy work.
O: All right, they didn't look as good as they could have at the plate. But when they made contact, they hit the ball pretty well a lot of the time, and just had a few bad breaks. Ramirez flew out twice to the warning track - in Wrigley he probably has two homers. Anyway, win tomorrow and you still take home-field advantage away from Arizona.
P: Well, Lilly has been the stopper, but the Cubs haven't done great against Doug Davis historically - they only hit .235 off him, and we all know they struggle against lefties.
O: Ah, they hit .263 off lefties. Could have been better but it could have been a lot worse, really. And they have beaten Davis five times in twelve decisions; he hasn't been completely dominant against them or anything.
P: Whatever. And what was up with taking Zambrano out? The guy was coasting! That move lost the game, right there.
O: It did, but it might have won the series. Lou already announced his intention to start Zambrano on short rest in Game Four...
P: You've gotta get to Game Four first! You can't gamble like that in the playoffs, you have to take your chance to win!
O: With the way the offense was going, would it have mattered that much if Zambrano had thrown 30 more pitches?
P: You're starting to sound like me.
O: You get my point. I mean, you're telling me that when Marmol came in you thought he was going to blow up? Even you had to think the seventh inning was pretty safe.
P: Yeah, I'll be honest, if I expected anyone to blow up it would have been Dempster, or maybe if Lou had brought Eyre in. Not Marmol so much.
O: It only looks like a bad move in retrospect. This isn't leaving Pedro Martinez in to face Jorge Posada; Marmol was lights-out all year and Lou trusted him in that spot. He had a bad inning; it happens to the best of them.
P: Yeah, well, it was a pretty bad time for it to happen to the best of them.
O: Sure. But still, I think with Webb out of the way, you have to like the Cubs' chances in these next two games. Arizona isn't going to be able to win this series scoring three runs a game. I'd bet on that, if I gambled.
P: They don't have to face top-form Z over the next couple games, either.
O: You know as well as I do that Lilly's been about as good as Zambrano this year, and Hill is 4-0 with a 0.96 ERA in his four starts this year that came after 6 or more non-start days - and he'll have had six off days when he goes on Saturday.
P: Well... can we at least agree that Soriano gave the Cubs nothing tonight?
O: Well, yeah. He sucked.
One for the road
There is always a choice between optimism and pessimism when it comes to being a Cubs fan, especially on those rare occasions when the team makes the playoffs. You can either believe, optimistically, that this is our year, or you can believe, pessimistically, that if the Cubs haven't done it by now they never will, that Durham and Bartman are proof this team can't win, blah blah blah cursecakes. During the regular season I found myself leaning rather heavily toward the pessimistic end of the spectrum - in spite of the fact that I tried very hard to keep my expectations low entering the season, I found myself increasingly frustrated by the team's poor play through early June (driven to the edge by the season-high six-game losing streak from May 27 to June 2), only to be sucked back in by the run the Cubs made shortly thereafter, including the season-high seven-game winning streak from June 22 to June 29 that was punctuated by the single most exciting moment of the Cubs' season (which we'll discuss more in a little bit). From then on the season was something of a roller coaster, with the renewed optimism occasionally tainted by inconsistent play, such as losing series to bad teams (scroll down a couple entries to see how crazy the Marlins sweep made me, for example).
Ultimately, however, there is a strong case to be made that this could be the third-best Cubs team since 1945, behind just 1984 and the unlucky 1969 team, and furthermore that unlike in many past years, the Cubs definitely have as good a chance to come out of the NL this year as anyone does. The 2003 Marlins had a surprisingly strong across-the-board combination of hitting, power hitting, speed, and pitching, which made them not a very good matchup for the Cubs. No team in the NL really has that this year; the Diamondbacks and Phillies have speed, the Phillies and Rockies have hitting and power hitting; the Diamondbacks have pitching (although beyond Webb their rotation is a bit iffy). No one really has all of them, which means there is no truly awful matchup for the Cubs. (Also, the Cubs have a ton more postseason experience than any other team - the Rockies and Diamondbacks have almost none, and the Phillies' key players have very little in total - but of course it's debatable how much of a difference this actually makes. The other teams also have much lower fanbase expectations, with the possible exception of the Phillies.) And yes, I know the Cubs only won 85 games, but since dropping to 22-31 on June 2, they've actually been playing .577 ball, which is 94 wins over a full season. And that's with the sub-.500 August.
The point is, I'm choosing to be optimistic and you can't stop me. This may change if they start looking terrible, of course, but why not be optimistic? Sure, I guess I'd rather be pessimistic and have the Cubs win than be optimistic and have them lose, but it's kind of ridiculous to think that my personal feelings on their chances of winning actually affect said chances, so I might as well try to be optimistic so that if they do win, I'll actually enjoy it. Is it going to be fun if the Cubs win the World Series and I'm spending the entire time watching through my hands, thinking "What new way are they going to figure out to mess with me now?" Not really.
There's a couple things I wanted to get out of the way before the first game, so let's do those.
The playoff roster
Here's your final roster for the NLDS:
SP: Zambrano, Lilly, Hill, Marquis
RP: Dempster, Eyre, Hart, Howry, Marmol, Wood, Wuertz
C: Kendall, Soto
IF: Lee, DeRosa, Theriot, Ramirez, Cedeno, Fontenot, Ward
OF: Soriano, Jones, Floyd, Murton, Pie
No real surprises here, I'd say. You have to take Marquis, even though Lou has announced his intention to start Zambrano on short rest in Game Four - which I don't especially like, but Marquis was god-awful down the stretch (6.21 ERA in September with opponents hitting .309 off him) and excused his brutal performance in Sunday's meaningless finale by saying he was "out of his normal role." I should be fair here - Marquis had some decent starts in September (9/1, 2 ER on 5 H in 6.2 IP, W; 9/6, 2 ER on 4 H in 7 IP, in line for the W until Dempster blew up in the ninth; 9/16, 1 ER on 5 H in 6.1 IP, W) and his ERA was inflated by two particularly heinous outings (7 ER in 2.2 IP vs. Pittsburgh on 9/21, a game the Cubs won anyway, and the 4 ER in 0.2 IP in that meaningless Reds game to end the season). That said, I wouldn't trust him much further than I could throw him.
Hart is a minor surprise, but he's pitched really well, and who else do you take? Ohman? (Thank God they left him off; my optimism would've turned dark in a hurry.) There are few surprises in the infield or outfield either. I know not everyone would have taken Cedeno, but you need backups and Fontenot isn't as capable at short and third as Cedeno would be (also, Cedeno hit .391 in September in limited action while Fontenot has really done nothing since his June explosion). And in the outfield, Murton's bat has been on fire down the stretch (.326 and a .979 OPS in September), plus he's been killing lefty pitching all year (.319, .892). So there's no one else you could really take there. And Pie's necessary for pinch-running and defense, and he's a slightly better bat than Fuld (not saying much). So yeah, I think the NLDS roster is about as good as could be expected.
The eleven best single moments of the 2007 Cubs season
Why eleven? Because that's how many wins are left.
11. June 23: The Squeeze
After losing four out of five to the Padres and Rangers, the Cubs dropped to their largest division deficit of the year, 8½ games. On this day, the middle game of a series with the White Sox that the Cubs would sweep, Rich Hill pitched well but Javier Vazquez pitched even better, and the score was tied at 1-1 going into the ninth inning. To preserve the tie, Ozzie Guillen brought in Bobby Jenks, who was perhaps the only reliable reliever the Sox had in 2007. Cliff Floyd singled with one out, and Daryle Ward followed with a pinch-hit single to left, sending Floyd's pinch-runner Angel Pagan to third. With runners at the corners, Ryan Theriot came up and executed a perfect squeeze play, bringing Pagan home with the winning run as Jenks' only play was to first. The Cubs won 2-1 to maintain their 8½-game deficit, and the next day they began their climb.
10. June 14: Izturis beats Mariners
It was looking like one of those games the Cubs found a way to lose. After jumping to a 3-0 lead in the first inning, they were unable to score again off Jeff Weaver, whose ERA was well over 10. Then the Mariners scored four in the sixth using just a single hit (Jason Marquis walked two and hit the pitcher Weaver, plus one man reached on an error). So with just three hits on the day, the Mariners led 4-3, and now the Cubs were stuck facing one of the better bullpens in baseball. Mark DeRosa and Mike Fontenot walked to start the eighth, however, and after Koyie Hill bunted them into scoring position, Cesar Izturis lashed a double down the left field line, scoring both and giving the Cubs a 5-4 lead, which would be the final score.
9. August 21: Lincecum collapses
Giants wunderkind Tim Lincecum had cruised through eight innings, with the Cubs recording just two hits, both singles. But the Giants' 1-0 lead was tenuous, and in the ninth, the Cubs obliterated it. Theriot opened the inning with a double - becoming the first Cub to reach second all day - then moved to third on a Jacque Jones single and scored on Derrek Lee's single. After Aramis Ramirez was walked to load the bases, Floyd singled to right, scoring two and putting the Cubs 3-1. They would tack on two more, improbably winning a game in which they'd appeared to have nothing at the plate, and stayed tied with Milwaukee atop the division.
8. September 14: Ward clears the bases
Carlos Zambrano had pitched well, allowing one run on four hits in eight innings, but the Cubs were clinging to a slim 2-1 lead in the top of the ninth at St. Louis. Felix Pie doubled off Jason Isringhausen with one out and moved to third on a DeRosa groundout; looking to force Piniella to take Zambrano out of the game, Tony LaRussa had Isringhausen walk both Jones and Jason Kendall, loading the bases for pinch-hitter Daryle Ward. Ward made LaRussa pay by driving a double to deep left-center, clearing the bases and giving the Cubs a 5-1 lead, which they would need to survive Ryan Dempster's adventures in the bottom of the ninth.
7. May 19: Lee's pinch-hit grand slam
The Cubs trailed 6-5 to the White Sox entering the bottom of the eighth on a day when runs were pretty easy to come by. The Cubs took a 7-6 lead after Theriot tripled, Alfonso Soriano singled and Ramirez followed with another triple, but such a slim lead did not look safe. An intentional walk of Ward and an infield single from Michael Barrett loaded the bases, and Piniella pinch hit Derrek Lee - then coming off an injury - for the struggling Jacque Jones. Lee sent Boone Logan's 3-1 pitch into the seats in right-center for a grand slam to boost the lead to 11-6, the eventual final, giving the pre-June Cubs their high point (soon to be overshadowed as the Cubs dropped ten of the next 12, unfortunately).
6. September 2: Lee HR beats Houston
The Astros held a 5-4 lead on the Cubs going into the bottom of the eighth, and Lee came up with two outs and Soriano on first. After fouling off the first pitch, Lee sent a moon shot to left field that found the basket, giving the Cubs the 6-5 win and maintaining their slim 1½-game division lead.
5. August 30: Murton and Soriano go back to back
It was the final meeting between the Cubs and Brewers all year, with the Cubs up by a game and a half coming in. The game was tied 3-3 in the bottom of the sixth with Chris Capuano pitching; he'd been relegated to the bullpen due to his struggles as a starter, but had held the Cubs through two innings thus far. With two outs, Matt Murton - who had entered the game on defense in the top of the inning - came to the plate. On a 3-2 pitch, Murton parked one in the seats in left-center, then was followed by Soriano, who hit Capuano's second pitch out to left. The Cubs took a 5-3 lead and held on to win 5-4, leaving their final series with Milwaukee with a 2½-game lead in the Central.
4. August 1: Murton comes home
Murton ended August by winning a game for the Cubs, the same way he had begun it. The Cubs took a 4-1 lead on the Phillies, then gave it back when Rich Hill couldn't get out of the fifth. The Cubs loaded the bases in the eighth but failed to score; the Phillies did the same in the top of the ninth. The Cubs loaded them again in the bottom of the ninth, when Murton doubled and advanced to third on a wild pitch. Cedeno walked and Jones was walked intentionally to load them up; after a Jason Kendall strikeout for the first out, Brett Myers uncorked his second wild pitch of the inning before Floyd could even take the bat off his shoulder. Murton raced home with the winning run and the Cubs, for the first time all season, moved into a tie for first place with Milwaukee.
3. September 17: DeRosa's fifth beats Reds
The Cubs trailed 6-4 going into the bottom of the ninth with their slim one-game lead in the Central on the line. But David Weathers, usually pretty strong against the Cubs, couldn't even record an out. After a Theriot walk and a Lee single, Ramirez hit one to right center that just eluded a diving Norris Hopper, who had robbed Ramirez of extra bases in the fifth. Theriot and Lee scored to tie the game, and after Ward was intentionally walked, DeRosa - who was already 4-for-4 - hit a shot up the middle that deflected off Weathers' glove for an infield single. Sam Fuld, pinch-running for Ramirez, dashed home from third and the Cubs' division lead was safe for the day.
2. June 25: Soriano beats Rockies
If any proof was needed that the 2007 Cubs were doing their darnedest to reverse karma, this game - the kind that most Cubs teams, and maybe most teams period, lose - was it. The Cubs appeared to be coasting, entering the top of the ninth with an 8-3 lead. Scott Eyre - then in the throes of his mid-season struggles - had gotten through 1.1 innings with minimal problems so far, but in the ninth he lost it, giving up a single to Kaz Matsui, walking Matt Holliday, and then allowing a Todd Helton double to make it 8-4. Eyre was pulled for Bob Howry with men at second and third, and Howry - otherwise very solid all year - apparently didn't like pitching from the stretch, as he allowed two straight run-scoring singles and a three-run homer to rookie Troy Tulowitzki. Just like that, the Cubs were down 9-8, a turn of events so horrifying it actually led a fan to run onto the field and charge Howry, yelling at him, "What are you doing??" as he was tackled by security. The bases clear, Howry apparently relaxed, inducing two groundouts to short and striking out Cory Sullivan to end the inning. Still, the damage had been done, or so it seemed. But in the bottom of the ninth, everything broke right. After DeRosa singled and Pagan struck out, Rob Bowen grounded a tailor-made double play ball to first - but Rockies then-closer Brian Fuentes failed to cover first in time and the slow-footed Bowen made it to first without even a return throw from second. Koyie Hill then pinch-hit and laced a single to left, advancing Bowen to second. Theriot hit a ball to second that should also have ended the game, but it ate up Matsui and everyone was safe, though Jones, pinch-running for Bowen, nearly overran third. Soriano came up with the bags full and smacked a single into right center, scoring Jones and Hill and giving the Cubs the improbable 10-9 win.
1. June 29: Ramirez walk-off
Perhaps no single at-bat was more emblematic of the Cubs' 2007 campaign. The Cubs entered the series opener with Milwaukee at Wrigley riding a six-game winning streak, alone in second place in the division (7½ back), and looking to reach .500 for the first time since May 10. Rich Hill got pounded for five runs in the top of the first, however, and the Cubs played from behind all day. They scratched back two runs in the fourth and one in the seventh, but still trailed 5-3 entering the bottom of the ninth against Francisco Cordero, who had been virtually unhittable for the Brewers to that point in the season. Theriot opened the inning with a popout to second, but Soriano singled and Mike Fontenot's single sent him to third. Lee hit a sac fly to right to cut the score to 5-4, bringing Ramirez up with one on and two outs. He swung at the first pitch, and Len Kasper's call on WGN TV (warning: make sure your speakers aren't turned up too loud) pretty much sums up how every Cubs fan watching felt.
So there you go - eleven things that made being a Cubs fan pretty awesome this year. Let's hope tonight is the start of eleven more. Go Cubs.
Ultimately, however, there is a strong case to be made that this could be the third-best Cubs team since 1945, behind just 1984 and the unlucky 1969 team, and furthermore that unlike in many past years, the Cubs definitely have as good a chance to come out of the NL this year as anyone does. The 2003 Marlins had a surprisingly strong across-the-board combination of hitting, power hitting, speed, and pitching, which made them not a very good matchup for the Cubs. No team in the NL really has that this year; the Diamondbacks and Phillies have speed, the Phillies and Rockies have hitting and power hitting; the Diamondbacks have pitching (although beyond Webb their rotation is a bit iffy). No one really has all of them, which means there is no truly awful matchup for the Cubs. (Also, the Cubs have a ton more postseason experience than any other team - the Rockies and Diamondbacks have almost none, and the Phillies' key players have very little in total - but of course it's debatable how much of a difference this actually makes. The other teams also have much lower fanbase expectations, with the possible exception of the Phillies.) And yes, I know the Cubs only won 85 games, but since dropping to 22-31 on June 2, they've actually been playing .577 ball, which is 94 wins over a full season. And that's with the sub-.500 August.
The point is, I'm choosing to be optimistic and you can't stop me. This may change if they start looking terrible, of course, but why not be optimistic? Sure, I guess I'd rather be pessimistic and have the Cubs win than be optimistic and have them lose, but it's kind of ridiculous to think that my personal feelings on their chances of winning actually affect said chances, so I might as well try to be optimistic so that if they do win, I'll actually enjoy it. Is it going to be fun if the Cubs win the World Series and I'm spending the entire time watching through my hands, thinking "What new way are they going to figure out to mess with me now?" Not really.
There's a couple things I wanted to get out of the way before the first game, so let's do those.
The playoff roster
Here's your final roster for the NLDS:
SP: Zambrano, Lilly, Hill, Marquis
RP: Dempster, Eyre, Hart, Howry, Marmol, Wood, Wuertz
C: Kendall, Soto
IF: Lee, DeRosa, Theriot, Ramirez, Cedeno, Fontenot, Ward
OF: Soriano, Jones, Floyd, Murton, Pie
No real surprises here, I'd say. You have to take Marquis, even though Lou has announced his intention to start Zambrano on short rest in Game Four - which I don't especially like, but Marquis was god-awful down the stretch (6.21 ERA in September with opponents hitting .309 off him) and excused his brutal performance in Sunday's meaningless finale by saying he was "out of his normal role." I should be fair here - Marquis had some decent starts in September (9/1, 2 ER on 5 H in 6.2 IP, W; 9/6, 2 ER on 4 H in 7 IP, in line for the W until Dempster blew up in the ninth; 9/16, 1 ER on 5 H in 6.1 IP, W) and his ERA was inflated by two particularly heinous outings (7 ER in 2.2 IP vs. Pittsburgh on 9/21, a game the Cubs won anyway, and the 4 ER in 0.2 IP in that meaningless Reds game to end the season). That said, I wouldn't trust him much further than I could throw him.
Hart is a minor surprise, but he's pitched really well, and who else do you take? Ohman? (Thank God they left him off; my optimism would've turned dark in a hurry.) There are few surprises in the infield or outfield either. I know not everyone would have taken Cedeno, but you need backups and Fontenot isn't as capable at short and third as Cedeno would be (also, Cedeno hit .391 in September in limited action while Fontenot has really done nothing since his June explosion). And in the outfield, Murton's bat has been on fire down the stretch (.326 and a .979 OPS in September), plus he's been killing lefty pitching all year (.319, .892). So there's no one else you could really take there. And Pie's necessary for pinch-running and defense, and he's a slightly better bat than Fuld (not saying much). So yeah, I think the NLDS roster is about as good as could be expected.
The eleven best single moments of the 2007 Cubs season
Why eleven? Because that's how many wins are left.
11. June 23: The Squeeze
After losing four out of five to the Padres and Rangers, the Cubs dropped to their largest division deficit of the year, 8½ games. On this day, the middle game of a series with the White Sox that the Cubs would sweep, Rich Hill pitched well but Javier Vazquez pitched even better, and the score was tied at 1-1 going into the ninth inning. To preserve the tie, Ozzie Guillen brought in Bobby Jenks, who was perhaps the only reliable reliever the Sox had in 2007. Cliff Floyd singled with one out, and Daryle Ward followed with a pinch-hit single to left, sending Floyd's pinch-runner Angel Pagan to third. With runners at the corners, Ryan Theriot came up and executed a perfect squeeze play, bringing Pagan home with the winning run as Jenks' only play was to first. The Cubs won 2-1 to maintain their 8½-game deficit, and the next day they began their climb.
10. June 14: Izturis beats Mariners
It was looking like one of those games the Cubs found a way to lose. After jumping to a 3-0 lead in the first inning, they were unable to score again off Jeff Weaver, whose ERA was well over 10. Then the Mariners scored four in the sixth using just a single hit (Jason Marquis walked two and hit the pitcher Weaver, plus one man reached on an error). So with just three hits on the day, the Mariners led 4-3, and now the Cubs were stuck facing one of the better bullpens in baseball. Mark DeRosa and Mike Fontenot walked to start the eighth, however, and after Koyie Hill bunted them into scoring position, Cesar Izturis lashed a double down the left field line, scoring both and giving the Cubs a 5-4 lead, which would be the final score.
9. August 21: Lincecum collapses
Giants wunderkind Tim Lincecum had cruised through eight innings, with the Cubs recording just two hits, both singles. But the Giants' 1-0 lead was tenuous, and in the ninth, the Cubs obliterated it. Theriot opened the inning with a double - becoming the first Cub to reach second all day - then moved to third on a Jacque Jones single and scored on Derrek Lee's single. After Aramis Ramirez was walked to load the bases, Floyd singled to right, scoring two and putting the Cubs 3-1. They would tack on two more, improbably winning a game in which they'd appeared to have nothing at the plate, and stayed tied with Milwaukee atop the division.
8. September 14: Ward clears the bases
Carlos Zambrano had pitched well, allowing one run on four hits in eight innings, but the Cubs were clinging to a slim 2-1 lead in the top of the ninth at St. Louis. Felix Pie doubled off Jason Isringhausen with one out and moved to third on a DeRosa groundout; looking to force Piniella to take Zambrano out of the game, Tony LaRussa had Isringhausen walk both Jones and Jason Kendall, loading the bases for pinch-hitter Daryle Ward. Ward made LaRussa pay by driving a double to deep left-center, clearing the bases and giving the Cubs a 5-1 lead, which they would need to survive Ryan Dempster's adventures in the bottom of the ninth.
7. May 19: Lee's pinch-hit grand slam
The Cubs trailed 6-5 to the White Sox entering the bottom of the eighth on a day when runs were pretty easy to come by. The Cubs took a 7-6 lead after Theriot tripled, Alfonso Soriano singled and Ramirez followed with another triple, but such a slim lead did not look safe. An intentional walk of Ward and an infield single from Michael Barrett loaded the bases, and Piniella pinch hit Derrek Lee - then coming off an injury - for the struggling Jacque Jones. Lee sent Boone Logan's 3-1 pitch into the seats in right-center for a grand slam to boost the lead to 11-6, the eventual final, giving the pre-June Cubs their high point (soon to be overshadowed as the Cubs dropped ten of the next 12, unfortunately).
6. September 2: Lee HR beats Houston
The Astros held a 5-4 lead on the Cubs going into the bottom of the eighth, and Lee came up with two outs and Soriano on first. After fouling off the first pitch, Lee sent a moon shot to left field that found the basket, giving the Cubs the 6-5 win and maintaining their slim 1½-game division lead.
5. August 30: Murton and Soriano go back to back
It was the final meeting between the Cubs and Brewers all year, with the Cubs up by a game and a half coming in. The game was tied 3-3 in the bottom of the sixth with Chris Capuano pitching; he'd been relegated to the bullpen due to his struggles as a starter, but had held the Cubs through two innings thus far. With two outs, Matt Murton - who had entered the game on defense in the top of the inning - came to the plate. On a 3-2 pitch, Murton parked one in the seats in left-center, then was followed by Soriano, who hit Capuano's second pitch out to left. The Cubs took a 5-3 lead and held on to win 5-4, leaving their final series with Milwaukee with a 2½-game lead in the Central.
4. August 1: Murton comes home
Murton ended August by winning a game for the Cubs, the same way he had begun it. The Cubs took a 4-1 lead on the Phillies, then gave it back when Rich Hill couldn't get out of the fifth. The Cubs loaded the bases in the eighth but failed to score; the Phillies did the same in the top of the ninth. The Cubs loaded them again in the bottom of the ninth, when Murton doubled and advanced to third on a wild pitch. Cedeno walked and Jones was walked intentionally to load them up; after a Jason Kendall strikeout for the first out, Brett Myers uncorked his second wild pitch of the inning before Floyd could even take the bat off his shoulder. Murton raced home with the winning run and the Cubs, for the first time all season, moved into a tie for first place with Milwaukee.
3. September 17: DeRosa's fifth beats Reds
The Cubs trailed 6-4 going into the bottom of the ninth with their slim one-game lead in the Central on the line. But David Weathers, usually pretty strong against the Cubs, couldn't even record an out. After a Theriot walk and a Lee single, Ramirez hit one to right center that just eluded a diving Norris Hopper, who had robbed Ramirez of extra bases in the fifth. Theriot and Lee scored to tie the game, and after Ward was intentionally walked, DeRosa - who was already 4-for-4 - hit a shot up the middle that deflected off Weathers' glove for an infield single. Sam Fuld, pinch-running for Ramirez, dashed home from third and the Cubs' division lead was safe for the day.
2. June 25: Soriano beats Rockies
If any proof was needed that the 2007 Cubs were doing their darnedest to reverse karma, this game - the kind that most Cubs teams, and maybe most teams period, lose - was it. The Cubs appeared to be coasting, entering the top of the ninth with an 8-3 lead. Scott Eyre - then in the throes of his mid-season struggles - had gotten through 1.1 innings with minimal problems so far, but in the ninth he lost it, giving up a single to Kaz Matsui, walking Matt Holliday, and then allowing a Todd Helton double to make it 8-4. Eyre was pulled for Bob Howry with men at second and third, and Howry - otherwise very solid all year - apparently didn't like pitching from the stretch, as he allowed two straight run-scoring singles and a three-run homer to rookie Troy Tulowitzki. Just like that, the Cubs were down 9-8, a turn of events so horrifying it actually led a fan to run onto the field and charge Howry, yelling at him, "What are you doing??" as he was tackled by security. The bases clear, Howry apparently relaxed, inducing two groundouts to short and striking out Cory Sullivan to end the inning. Still, the damage had been done, or so it seemed. But in the bottom of the ninth, everything broke right. After DeRosa singled and Pagan struck out, Rob Bowen grounded a tailor-made double play ball to first - but Rockies then-closer Brian Fuentes failed to cover first in time and the slow-footed Bowen made it to first without even a return throw from second. Koyie Hill then pinch-hit and laced a single to left, advancing Bowen to second. Theriot hit a ball to second that should also have ended the game, but it ate up Matsui and everyone was safe, though Jones, pinch-running for Bowen, nearly overran third. Soriano came up with the bags full and smacked a single into right center, scoring Jones and Hill and giving the Cubs the improbable 10-9 win.
1. June 29: Ramirez walk-off
Perhaps no single at-bat was more emblematic of the Cubs' 2007 campaign. The Cubs entered the series opener with Milwaukee at Wrigley riding a six-game winning streak, alone in second place in the division (7½ back), and looking to reach .500 for the first time since May 10. Rich Hill got pounded for five runs in the top of the first, however, and the Cubs played from behind all day. They scratched back two runs in the fourth and one in the seventh, but still trailed 5-3 entering the bottom of the ninth against Francisco Cordero, who had been virtually unhittable for the Brewers to that point in the season. Theriot opened the inning with a popout to second, but Soriano singled and Mike Fontenot's single sent him to third. Lee hit a sac fly to right to cut the score to 5-4, bringing Ramirez up with one on and two outs. He swung at the first pitch, and Len Kasper's call on WGN TV (warning: make sure your speakers aren't turned up too loud) pretty much sums up how every Cubs fan watching felt.
So there you go - eleven things that made being a Cubs fan pretty awesome this year. Let's hope tonight is the start of eleven more. Go Cubs.
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