Strike a match

The playoffs are locked up. Home field advantage is locked up. Now, there's only two questions: can the Cubs really get to the World Series, and who are they going to have to beat to do it?

First things first: of course the Cubs can get to the World Series. They've been the best team in the NL all year and have the record to prove it. If they don't have the best top-to-bottom pitching, they're darn close, and they have the highest-scoring offense. Anything can happen in short playoff series, but it's inarguable that the Cubs can win the pennant.

But will they? To answer that, we have to look at the other NL playoff teams (or potential playoff teams) and ask ourselves how they match up with the Cubs, and what the Cubs have to do to win.

Possible Opponent #1: Mets
At the moment, this looks like the most likely option for the Division Series. After beating the Cubs tonight, the Mets have a one-game lead in the wild card over the Brewers with five games to play. Of course, the Mets have two more against the Cubs (and won't get to start Johan Santana in those games) while the Brewers are playing Pittsburgh, their personal bitches for 2008. So check back on Thursday night, because it's entirely possible the Mets won't be the wild card leaders anymore.

Pros for the Cubs: For a team that's scored 781 runs, the Mets seem to have a tendency the last couple seasons to lock up in the clutch. The Cubs shut them down at Wrigley earlier this year, although that was so long ago at this point that it's virtually meaningless. The Mets' pitching is also highly suspect once you get beyond Johan Santana, especially in the bullpen, which lacks a real closer with Billy Wagner injured and is even thinner beyond that.

Cons for the Cubs: Even ahead of the Phillies, the Mets might be the scariest offensive team in the playoffs (if they make it), with David Wright, Jose Reyes, and a suddenly alive Carlos Delgado, among others. There's also the little matter of Johan Santana, who could pitch twice in a five-game series, leaving little margin for error if the Cubs struggle to hit him as they did tonight after the first three innings.

Possible Opponent #2: Phillies
It should probably be noted that the Mets are only 1.5 back of the Phillies in the NL East right now, meaning it's not yet impossible that the Cubs could see Philadelphia in the first round. Still, an NLCS matchup seems more likely if anything.

Pros for the Cubs: Last year the Phillies were the second-hottest team in baseball going into the playoffs, and they got skunked in three straight. Of course, the team doing the skunking was the hottest team in baseball. But the Phillies are still not blessed with a ton of playoff experience - really, the bulk of their major players have just that one series to point to. The Cubs have a good deal more than that. The Phillies' starting pitching is also a bit thin beyond their top two, and while they have a lot of power, they're not really great at getting on base, often more important in the playoffs than the ability to hit home runs.

Cons for the Cubs: The Phillies went 4-3 against the Cubs this year but it could easily have been 7-0, as the Cubs only won their one game in Philly thanks to a phantom home run call and needed late comebacks against the Phillies' bullpen just to split the four-game set at Wrigley in August. Hamels and Myers are good pitchers, but the Cubs have made them look like Koufax and Drysdale, with Hamels allowing one run and six hits in fourteen innings vs. the Cubs this year and Myers is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in two starts. That could easily present problems in a short series if the Cubs can't do a better job of solving them. The Phillies' power and speed are also both liable to be problems. This is probably the one team in the NL I absolutely don't want to see, certainly not in the Division Series.

Possible Opponent #3: Dodgers
If the wild card is won by the Brewers, the Cubs won't play the wild card team; instead, they'll play the division winner with the worst record, which is going to be the team out of the West. Right now that's LA - they should lead by three games by the end of the night with just five to play, an awfully difficult lead to blow, especially when they don't play second-place Arizona.

Pros for the Cubs: The Cubs went 5-2 against the Dodgers this year, sweeping them at Wrigley Field. And aside from one bad Carlos Zambrano start, they mostly kept the Dodgers from scoring, allowing less than two runs per game in the other six contests. The Dodgers have also been pretty bad on the road this year, and of course the Cubs would have home-field.

Cons for the Cubs: The Cubs also didn't hit Dodger pitching all that well, scoring a total of 19 runs in the seven games. They were shut out by Hiroki Kuroda at Chavez Ravine, and twice needed to get into the bullpen to win, including the May 28 game at Wrigley where it was 1-0 Dodgers in the bottom of the ninth before the Cubs managed to tie the game on a sac fly and win in ten innings. Also, we can't count on the Dodgers to be a lousy offensive team anymore, given the improvement in their numbers since the addition of Manny Ramirez.

Possible Opponent #4: Diamondbacks
The chances of this look pretty slim right now, thank God.

Pros for the Cubs: The Diamondbacks stink. They're 79-78 right now!

Cons for the Cubs: Anybody who tells you they want to face Webb, Haren and Johnson to start a five-game set is crazy. It could be over before it even begins, just like last year. And just for good measure, give them Cub killer Adam Dunn. You don't know how glad I am this isn't happening.

Possible Opponent #5: Brewers
This could only happen in the NLCS, and they need to catch the Mets for the wild card to do it. But they're only a game out, hardly insurmountable with five to play.

Pros for the Cubs: The Cubs know the Brewers very well. They also seem to own them at Miller Park, making the possible 3-4-5 middle section of the NLCS not as daunting as it might be in another city. In addition, the Brewers have pretty much stunk on ice in the last month, and Sabathia seems to be wearing down, something that won't be helped by all the pitching he'll be doing on three days' rest in the next week.

Cons for the Cubs: For some reason, the Brewers seem to play almost as well at Wrigley as the Cubs do at Miller. Also, the Brewers might be able to get on a roll if they win a first-round series; not that the Cubs wouldn't be on a roll also, but with Fielder and Braun, that could certainly be dangerous. You wouldn't want to end up in a slugfest with that team. Still, I'd rather face the Brewers than the Phillies here, given the option.

So, who would you rather face? I'll take whatever I can get, of course, but I'm inclined to prefer Mets/Brewers, although that combo is really unlikely to happen since at this point it looks like an either/or as to which one gets in. So let's say Dodgers/Brewers. The Dodgers are better than they were, but they aren't great.