Carlosing it

Where have I been lately? Well, things were steaming along, I didn't have much to add and little complain about, so I just let it go. But as much as I hate to complain after a win, tonight's game seems to deserve some addressing.

What in the hell is wrong with Carlos Zambrano? Is it just arm angle? Mental? Fatigue? A combination?

After coming off the DL, Zambrano appeared to have found his form. Here were his first six starts after returning, not including his solid two innings in the All-Star Game:

July 4 @ STL: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 5 K
July 9 vs. CIN: 8 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 5 K
July 19 @ HOU: 6.1 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 6 BB, 3 K
July 24 vs. FLA: 7 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 6 K
July 29 @ MIL: 8 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 9 K
August 3 vs. PIT: 5 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 2 K

Pretty strong there, except for the game in Houston right after the break. But that's five out of six strong starts; the July 4, 9 and 29 games, in particular, are probably the three best games he threw all year.

Then came his last few starts:

August 9 vs. STL: 4.1 IP, 10 H, 9 R, 1 BB, 3 K
August 15 @ FLA: 6 IP, 4 H, 5 R, 5 BB, 6 K
August 21 vs. CIN: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 4 BB, 4 K
August 26 @ PIT: 4.1 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 4 BB, 3 K

After all this, his ERA is only 3.53, but this is still a disturbing trend. That's awful control the last three starts, and he just doesn't seem to be missing many bats. Okay, it's only four starts, and actually he's only 1-1 through them, but... recently on ESPN.com, Jayson Stark did a chat that debated which team had the best potential playoff rotation (i.e. top four starters), and he picked the Cubs. But if Zambrano - the theoretical ace of the staff - can't be relied upon not to walk four guys and give up 5-6 runs or worse, that puts a pretty big hole in the rotation.

It may be that I'm overreacting. Z was up and down last year too, putting together five straight starts in August/September where he allowed 31 runs in 28.2 innings (and bookended those five starts with two starts in which he gave up a combined 12 walks in 11 innings, although he allowed just two runs combined in those two games, somehow). He also proceeded to go 4-1 in his last five starts, giving up no runs in the last two, and then had a nice start in the playoffs. So really, who the hell knows? But with that said, he's making what, 18 million a year? You need to be better than the third-best guy on a staff for that kind of cash.

Well, anyway. That's nine straight series wins, the first time the Cubs have done that since 1907, which is ridiculous. It's also their first time at 32 games over .500 since September 15, 1984 and, before that, September 2, 1969; if they win tomorrow, it'll be their first time at 33 games over .500 since they finished the 1945 season at 42 over. I refuse to assume a championship or even a pennant, but with stats like that... if this isn't the year, what the hell is it going to take?