Brewers 4, Cubs 3 (10 innings)

This is one of those games where I'm not sure whether to accentuate the positives or dwell on the negatives, especially this early in the season. So let's look at both, and then decide.

The Good: Kosuke Fukudome. Oh my goodness. 3-for-3, plus a walk, plus the game-tying three-run homer in the bottom of the ninth. Also, the only guy to get a hit off Ben Sheets (which doubles as the bad, I think). I'm not saying he's going to bat 1.000 this year, but if he really does put up that .400 OBP that PECOTA projected, well, golly. In my lifetime, the only Cubs to put up a .400 OBP over a full season have been Derrek Lee (2005 and 2007), Sammy Sosa (2000 and 2001), Mark Grace (1989, 1997 and 1998) and Gary Matthews (1984). Pretty select company. Also, he's currently on pace to hit 162 home runs. In addition, Carlos Zambrano looked strong through 6.2, although he has got to start hydrating during games. This whole leaving with cramps thing is getting ridiculous. (Possible alternate explanation: the 49-minute rain delay, although he went several innings after that before having the problem.) Also, Marmol looked to have picked up exactly where he left off in 2007 (not counting Game One of the NLDS).

The Bad: Fukudome was the only guy who could get a hit off Sheets. I know he's a Cub killer - 9-7, 3.87 all-time with 128 K in 144.1 IP, and two double-digit strikeout performances including one last year - but he didn't look very good in spring training. And then today he looked unhittable. I suppose the "good news" is that the Cubs could not hit Sheets at all and still almost won, which gives you more hope for games in which they don't have to face anyone nearly as good. But to win a World Series, you have to beat decent pitchers, generally. Also bad: the non-Marmol segment of the bullpen, as both Wood and Howry struggled to get guys out. Wood nearly lost the game; Howry did. It's just one game and this stuff will happen, but it wasn't a very encouraging start to the year, was it?

The Ugly: How about that top three! Theriot, Soriano and Lee combined to go 1-for-15 (Theriot and Soriano were 0-for-10) with two strikeouts each. Really, aside from Fukudome, the lineup in general was pretty poor. Ramirez was 0-for-3 (though he did walk and score); DeRosa was 0-for-3 (though he had a little bad luck, hitting two long outs to the wall in dead center); Soto was 0-for-2 (though he walked twice); and Pie was 1-for-4 and the one was a barely, since he only got on due to some first-base shenanigans by the ever ironically-named Prince Fielder. He also struck out twice.

Obviously, there's no reason to start worrying just yet. Frankly, it might be kind of heartening to have a game where the hitting was this lousy and still nearly win. But I hope Lou has the kind of patience with Theriot at the top of the order that I would - which is to say, not much. If he's going back to .326 OBP territory, move him. Hit Soriano first and Fukudome second - yes, I know that Soriano's OBP isn't much better, but at least he likes hitting leadoff, and at least you have Fukudome up there to reboot the lineup when Soriano isn't getting on (or hitting solo shots). Still, this is just the first game out of 162. We should probably all try not to overreact.

By the way, in case you were wondering if my complaints about what I anticipated as being the coverage of the whole 1908/2008 thing were overblown, here are the first four paragraphs of the AP's recap of the game:

Kosuke Fukudome did everything he could in his first major league game -- except bring the Chicago Cubs a victory.

Instead, the start of the Cubs' 100th season since winning the World Series ended in familiar fashion. Tony Gwynn hit a sacrifice fly in the 10th inning and the Milwaukee Brewers beat Chicago 4-3 on a wet Monday at Wrigley Field.

Fukudome, the team's main offseason acquisition, went 3-for-3, hitting a tying three-run homer in the ninth off Eric Gagne (1-0).

But it wasn't enough for the Cubs, who haven't even reached the World Series since 1945.

Hey, Associated Press? Fuck you. Seriously.

Here goes nothing

At the moment, it's raining here in Chicago, and it's slated to do so all day Monday. But if there's a break, tomorrow is when the Cubs are scheduled to begin the defense of their division title and, hopefully, begin a run towards the pennant and beyond. In some ways I'm really looking forward to this season - on paper, it's gotta be at least the most talented Cubs team since 1984 and possibly longer (I'm not including last year, here). Most of the stars are in the relative primes of their careers; the oldest everyday position player is 33 and the oldest starting pitcher is 32. The only obvious flaw right now is the youth up the middle - as fans, I don't think we can really be sure what we're going to get from Soto, Theriot and Pie, although the former and latter at least seem likely to produce on the defensive side and it's hard to see how either could really be any worse offensively than the guys who spent the most time at those positions last year. Theriot needs to hit like he did last July, or like he did in 2006; he can't put up another cumulative .326 OBP as he did for the 2007 season. At least Cedeno provides an alternative, although he's sort of an enigma too at the pro level. Anyway.

Frankly, I'm a little uncomfortable with the prospect of this season. The Cubs go into the year as favorites, and that's not a position they've been in too often. Anything less than a playoff appearance will be a massive failure. What's more, because this is the century year since the last Cubs title, we're going to be hearing about that fact on every last national broadcast. Hey, Red Sox fans, you think you had it bad with the Curse of the Bambino garbage? Just wait. Every single game on Fox or ESPN is going to mention 1908; most will mention the goat and Steve Bartman. Certainly, if the Cubs do make the playoffs, every last playoff game will make some mention of these facts. The only place it's likely to be avoidable is on WGN (and Comcast), which makes me reeeeally glad to live in Chicago right now.

Plus, if the Cubs win the World Series, it'll be "Oh, well, they had to, right? Because it was the 100-year anniversary?" And of course if the Cubs don't win it'll just be same-old, same-old. There's no way for this to be as fun a season as it seems like it should be. And that's just annoying.

But, I'll hope, as I do every year. Here's to still having it as late as October.

Northbound Suarez

The team is preparing to head north, to the point that stuff is getting put on the trucks and Lou is telling players to find apartments if they haven't already. But things aren't totally set, it seems.

* Fontenot and Cedeno both made the team. While you obviously need infield backups, doesn't this sort of suggest that Lou is looking for a little insurance should Theriot repeat last year's form? Fontenot and Cedeno have both hit in spring training, but not that much (although both have OPSes well over .800, which you'd definitely take from a middle infielder). Theriot does lag behind them in power but he hit .348 in Mesa.

* Murton is apparently going to start the year at Iowa, which almost certainly means he's going to finish it in a completely different major league city. This makes me a little sad. I'm not sure Murton was ever given a totally fair shake with the Cubs, although if you really look at it I guess his OPS+ in 2006 was only 104, which is above average but isn't exactly setting the world on fire. Soriano's OPS+ in 2007, by comparison, was 123. And Murton isn't known as a great fielder (although he was at least serviceable in left). I mean, even though Murton has put up a pretty good OBP in his career, you certainly can't fault the Cubs for going to get Soriano ahead of him, and Murton's best position is left field - and while he can play right, if Kosuke Fukudome really has a .400 OBP this year, I don't think we're going to miss Matty too much. I wish there was a place for the guy, but he plays better when he starts and you really can't justify starting him at this point (except maybe as the DH in games in AL parks - although even then, Daryle Ward probably fills that role better). Oh well.

* The battle for 12th pitcher appears to be coming down to Marshall vs. Pignatiello, because I guess we only need one lefty in the pen. (We only had one regular last year, and that was Eyre, who spent the majority of the year sucking ass.) Marshall went two innings today, giving up one run on one hit (he walked three and didn't strike anyone out). Marshall's another guy I've liked since he came up - I was at Wrigley for his first career home win, a 3-1 decision over the Marlins on April 25, 2006, and he's a lefty who is one day younger than I am. He had a 119 ERA+ last year, which is pretty dang good for a fifth starter, but he was squeezed out of the rotation by Dempster's move into it (and even if he hadn't done that, the Lieber acquisition probably would have pushed Marshall aside as well). This although Dempster is five years older than Marshall and his career high ERA+ as a starter is 120 (and Lieber has never had one as high as 119, not even in 2001 when he was the last Cub to win 20). Right now I'm expecting Marshall to start the year in Iowa; I don't think you can ignore Pignatiello's 0.90 spring ERA. But I'm not sure I wouldn't bring Marshall over Kevin Hart. Doesn't look like that's gonna happen, though.

More stuff to figure out

The Cubs just keep on giving us things to consider.

* Lee and Soto both hit home runs today in a 7-5 win over the Giants, which was good to see; Hill also put together a decent start, going five innings, allowing 2 ER on five hits and a walk, while striking out six. All three guys had been struggling, so it was good to see them do something for a change.

* New acquisition Reed Johnson started in center to get some at-bats with the team; he went 2-for-5 and scored two runs. If these trends continue... ayyyyyy.

* Michael Wuertz, subject of trade rumors that I think were just planted by Tigers beat writers, since trading him never made sense, had yet another scoreless inning. Spring ERA? 0.00. Carmen Pignatiello finally allowed a run; his spring ERA is 1.00.

* Matt Murton went 1-for-3 with a sac fly RBI; he also preserved a 4-4 tie in the seventh by throwing out Fred Lewis at home plate from left field. Soriano's not the only one with gifts.

* Hoffpauir, Patterson, and Fuld (along with Walrond and McGehee) were officially sent down. The roster on Cubs.com is currently listed at 29: 15 pitchers, two catchers, seven IFs and five OFs. This means four more guys have to get lost between now and opening day. The outfield - Soriano, Pie, Fukudome, Murton and Johnson - seems set, so who else is going?

Well, the current list of seven IFs is Lee, DeRosa, Theriot, Ramirez, Cedeno, Fontenot and Ward. If you have to cut one from that - and I think Lou wants 12 pitchers, so it's likely that someone will get cut - I'd say it's clearly Cedeno vs. Fontenot. Cedeno is probably stronger defensively, while Fontenot is probably stronger offensively and gives the Cubs another lefty bat on the bench. I really don't know what the Cubs should do with Cedeno; unless Theriot absolutely doesn't hit, he's blocked up here, but he tore up the PCL last year to such great effect that it's not clear more time in the minors is going to help him. It's no wonder he was supposed to be part of the now-dormant Brian Roberts deal. But between them I think I'd keep Fontenot for the time being.

As for the pitchers, the 15 left are the five starters (Zambrano, Lilly, Hill, Dempster, Marquis), the closer (Wood), and nine relievers going for what I think will be six spots (Lieber, Marmol, Howry, Marshall, Hart, Pignatiello, Wuertz, Lahey and Eyre). Eyre is apparently injured, so forget him for the time being. That leaves two more. I don't see how Lahey makes it; I assume the only reason he's still hanging in there is, as a Rule V draftee, the Cubs can't option him to the minors. That leaves one, and it's clearly between Hart and Pignatiello, and although Hart was great last year, he hasn't had all that good of a spring, whereas Pignatiello has. Pignatiello is also a lefty, and with Eyre injured the only other lefty in the pen would be Marshall, so he fills a need.

Makes sense to me. Thoughts? Would you send Pignatiello (or Marshall?) down so you could keep Cedeno up, or does 12 pitchers make the most sense right now?

Trees to Lorax: "Shut up"

If you read Deadspin, you're probably familiar with the various season previews, usually given to fans of a team as a soapbox to say how they feel about the team for the upcoming year. Or, in this case, given to the most famous magazine editor willing to call himself a Cubs fan. Complete idiocy or subtle sabotage by Cardinals fan Will Leitch? You be the judge.

FRAUD MARKER #1
Believes the 1908 World Series was held at Wrigley Field, which was not built until 1914. (At which time it was called Weeghman Park, anyway.)

FRAUD MARKER #2
Believes the Cubs' last title was won over the Pirates, who finished third in the NL (that's right, same league as the Cubs!) in 1908. When I first read this I thought it was a joke, but I don't think I can extend that kind of benefit of the doubt.

FRAUD MARKER #3
Thinking Hideki Matsui played on a Yankees team that won a World Series. His first year in New York was 2003. Not even close. This isn't Cubs-related, but it does tell you something about how much of a baseball fan the guy is. And even if he wasn't sure, it would have taken, what, ten seconds to look that up?

FRAUD MARKER #4
Thinking Sean Marshall is a viable candidate for the rotation, and apparently having no idea that Ryan Dempster was in the mix. Unless this article was written two months ago, what serious Cubs fan has an excuse for having no clue as to what the starting rotation will look like, especially when it was just announced?

FRAUD MARKER #5
Ditto for the whole "Howry/Marmol as two-headed closer" thing. Have you been in a cave since February 1?

FRAUD MARKER #6
Thinking Fukudome is a 40-45 HR threat. I'm hopeful for the guy, but nobody is projecting he's going to have that kind of power. Maybe if you just heard that the Cubs were getting some Japanese guy and read nothing about him, you could make that kind of leap in your mind.

FRAUD MARKER #7
Thinking that Soto was "landed ... this off-season." Uh, did you watch the playoffs last year? When he was our starting fucking catcher?

FRAUD MARKER #8
Thinking that Felix Pie is "finally making his big league debut." I'll cut him some slack here; maybe he just doesn't know what "debut" means. Pie didn't play a ton last year, but he did appear in 87 games, which is more than half a season.

FRAUD MARKER #9
Generally sounding like a shit-eating 22-year-old who just graduated from Notre Dame and is on his third Old Style in the top of the second. All that was missing was his failure to work in some sort of "Cardinals suck, Sox swallow" joke.

God. And see, this is the kind of person that the media allows to be the face of Cubs fans. No wonder everyone pictures us as drunken, overgrown frat boys who are more interested in getting a sunburn than watching a baseball game. Ugh.

The rotation is set. For now.

So the big announcement came today, and it was a little bit of a surprise, at least to me. The rotation will look like so:

1. Zambrano
2. Lilly
3. Dempster
4. Hill
5. Marquis

Not that order of rotation matters so much, but I was a little surprised Dempster was named the third starter, although I assume it's because he breaks up Hill and Lilly, the two lefties in the rotation. My question would be, why exactly did Dempster make it over Lieber? Your spring stats:

Dempster: 5.23 ERA, 11 BB (plus 2 HBP), 18 K, 2 HR allowed
Lieber: 2.50 ERA, 3 BB, 15 K, 1 HR allowed

By all reasonable standards, Lieber was better. I assume the thinking runs mostly along the lines that Dempster gave up the closer job to compete for the rotation, and now the closer job is no longer available. And Dempster's been a Cub longer than Lieber (kinda), and anyway Lieber will still fill a valuable role as the Glendon Rusch-like spot starter/long man out of the pen (hopefully in a way that resembles 2004 Glendon Rusch and not 2005 or - ugh - 2006 Glendon Rusch). At any rate, should Dempster bomb out of the gate, I don't doubt Lou will be ready with Lieber. Eyre's elbow injury also gives Marshall a chance to make the team, and he's another guy who could potentially make a spot start or go three innings in one day.

Going back to the lineup for a minute, I have a question. Why does everyone seem to be talking about Felix Pie in a "He can't do it, we know he can't do it, we'd better find another OF for the exact moment he can't do it" kind of way? I don't know if you've looked at the spring numbers, but Pie has been one of the best hitters on the team, with a .340 average and an OPS of .952. Small sample size? Absolutely. But only two at-bats smaller than that of Micah Hoffpauir, who's being talked about like the next Mickey Mantle after hitting .382 with an OPS of 1.004 so far in camp. And yeah, that's really good. But if we take those numbers at face value from a career minor leaguer (please note that Hoffpauir is more than two years older than I am and has a career minors OPS of a mere .790), why not assume that Pie, who only just turned 23, is likely to be figuring things out when he hits .340 in spring? Maybe it's because Hoffpauir is blocked by Lee, and so we don't really have to worry about being wrong - he's almost certainly starting the season at Iowa no matter what. Pie, on the other hand, is the starting CF. We've got more to lose if we're wrong about him.

I've heard talk that Reed Johnson might be picked up as a backup CF option to Pie, if he clears waivers. For those of you who have no idea who he is - and rightly so - here's the book, briefly:

Johnson: 31 years old; can play all three OF slots at least serviceably; had an OBP of .390 for Toronto in 2006. Then sucked (and was injured) in 2007.

This could possibly continue the Cubs trend of signing outfielders a year or two after they've stopped being good, hoping they'll go back to being good, only they get even worse (see: Pierre, Juan; Monroe, Craig). It also, according to ESPN.com, "could free them to trade Matt Murton in the next few days."

ARRRRGH NO NO NO

God. Okay, fine, Murton can't play center. But why would you trade away 40-50 points of OBP for a backup plan? I've said it before and I'll say it again - if Pie can't hack it, move Fukudome to center and put Murton in right. That's probably well over 700 points of OBP in two-thirds of the outfield. And if Pie works out just fine, Murton can hit against lefties off the bench. He kills lefties. You do not just trade a guy who kills lefties because you want a slightly stouter defensive backup center fielder. Jesus Christ. Is this really that hard?

A pressing question

I have a very serious question for all Cubs fans, and it regards prospective trades. Here it is:

Why does Jim Hendry hate Mark DeRosa?

DeRosa was basically a below-average offensive player for the bulk of his career, until 2006, when he had a decent season (108 OPS+) with Texas. Hendry signed him to shore up what seemed at the time to be a gaping need, second base; DeRosa responded by going .293/.371/.420, not huge numbers but pretty strong for a guy who never had a ton of power, and more than 30 points above his career OBP. He also played right field when called upon to do so and in general was a good soldier.

Now, I'm not in the clubhouse. So maybe he's a dick or something. But with all that in mind, why does Hendry seem so insistent on booting DeRo to the bench? The Brian Roberts trade was one thing. Roberts' OBP last year was .377; in 2005 it was .387. He's two-plus years younger than DeRosa; he also steals bases (50 last year), which DeRosa does not, and he's a better fielder, although perhaps not by a ton. He also gives the Cubs an obvious leadoff man, which currently they lack (unless Ryan Theriot can get his OBP back up to 2006 levels). So that, at least, I understand.

But now, apparently, there's talk of trading for Felipe Lopez. What? Hey, you know why Felipe Lopez is on the trading block? Because he sucks fucking ass. Here's Felipe Lopez's stats from last year: .245/.308/.352. Are you fucking kidding me? He would immediately become the worst infielder on the team. I'm not sure what Jim's attachment is to Hispanic infielders who don't hit well, but why not just stick Ronny Cedeno out there if that's the case? I thought when we got rid of Cesar Izturis that those days were over.

I mean, if you're going to trade for Lopez, at least tell me that you're during it as insurance, just in case DeRosa's heart isn't fine, and not because you're actually looking to hand Lopez a starting job. And please don't tell me you'd trade more than a single B-grade prospect for him. Hendry has made two of the biggest steals in recent trading history in his acquisitions of Lee and Ramirez; let's not give away all that good will by making idiotic moves right when we need you the most, Jim.

I guess I'm worried about panic setting in. This team was built to win now, and everyone knows it, and any suggestion that it's not going to happen seems to be leading Hendry and Piniella to want to change whatever they can. For his part, at least Piniella said that he plans on keeping the lineup how it is right now:

1. Theriot
2. Soriano
3. Lee
4. Ramirez
5. Fukudome
6. DeRosa
7. Soto
8. Pie
9. P

I will continue my objection to trading for someone to possibly replace Pie in center. Put Fukudome in center and Murton in right. Okay, it's probably a slight defensive liability, but Murton gets on base, man. And as I've said several times in recent posts, Byrd and Crisp do not. Are a few balls that get cut off before reaching the gap worth 40 points of OBP?

The rotation is expected to be announced tomorrow. Marquis had another good outing today - though he had a rough first inning (having started with a 6-0 lead), he settled down after that and ended up allowing just the three runs (which came on a single home run in the first) on four hits, with five Ks in 4.1 innings. Afterwards, Piniella said that Marquis hasn't done anything this spring to suggest he wouldn't be in the rotation. To me, that points to Dempster being the odd man out - he's done a fine job, but as I said last post, his ERA is the highest of those three guys competing for the two spots, plus Dempster has bullpen experience. The question, of course, is what good a non-closing Dempster is in the bullpen; we saw how rough he could be in non-save situations, so do you trust him as a 2-3 inning guy every fourth or fifth day?

I'll have another post after we learn the rotation. Baseball is a week away, guys.

Making a mountain out of a mole Hill

I know, I know - it's spring training. But just when I think I have a handle on what the Cubs are going to do, or should do, a guy looks better or worse and makes me rethink everything, which makes me wonder how Lou is going to handle this.

* Murton was 2-for-4 with two doubles and two runs scored against the Rockies today; he's hitting .354 in the spring and I think he has to go north and stay with the team. Why would you get rid of this guy when he's proven he can hit and get on base? Okay, he's not a great defender in right and he probably can't play center, which means you probably can't start him unless Fukudome moves to center. And either way he's not a huge power guy, which is what you'd to get from a corner OF (not that Fukudome is expected to be a huge power guy either, of course, and at least Murton's hitting right now). But the main point is, why would you trade this guy for Marlon Byrd, which is apparently what the Cubs wanted to do a couple months ago? Marlon Byrd? He doesn't have any power either and doesn't get on base like Murton (.334 career, although .355 last year). Yes, he can play center, but he plays it below-average according to the fielding stats (although we all know that fielding stats aren't necessarily the most reliable things on earth). Murton's stats are slightly above average, and he's been worth 6.2 wins over replacement the last two years, while Byrd has been worth just 3.9. And Murton hits lefties, which is what you supposedly want, Hendry! In fact, he kills them - .326 with a .909 OPS career. What is the problem here?

* I'm starting to think that the rotation issue is going to be resolved by Rich Hill pitching his way right out of it. Hill started today, and the good news is he only allowed one hit. The bad news is he walked six in one and a third, allowing two ER (three total). His spring ERA is now 7.11, which would probably get him a nice sponsorship deal if he worked for the White Sox. I'm not sure what to do with Hill right now - by most accounts he hasn't looked very good, and I hope it doesn't have anything to do with doubling his workload from 99 innings in 2006 to 195 last year. He was a solid #3 last year, going 11-8 with a 3.92 ERA (119 ERA+), and you hate to lose a lefty from your rotation. But with Lieber, Dempster and Marquis all pitching great right now, and with the expectations high around here, can we possibly afford to let Hill pitch his way out of this with the big club?

* Meanwhile, Neal Cotts, who has seemed to pitch himself off the team several times this spring, went two innings today, giving up a hit and two walks but allowing no runs. He even got the win! Kerry Wood also returned from back spasms to throw an inning; he allowed two hits and a run, but he did strike out two. Michael Wuertz continues to look like the best guy in the pen, striking out two and allowing no hits in 1.1 innings. In 8.0 spring innings, Wuertz has allowed five hits, struck out 13, and has an ERA of triple bagels. Wuertz has always been kind of overlooked - his career ERA+ is 127, and his K/9 is nearly 10. Let's hope he keeps this up. Marmol's been looking a little shaky, which means we need a shutdown guy in the middle. Although even if Marmol were looking great, who doesn't want more shutdown guys in the middle?

(I just looked and Marmol's spring ERA is 2.08. Maybe not that shaky. Although he's walked six in 8.2 innings, so.)

* Marquis is apparently being dangled as trade bait. Which I understand - but his spring ERA is 1.93! Okay, so he'll probably turn into a pumpkin sometime around July 1 - last year his first half ERA was 3.67 and his second half ERA was 5.73 - but he eats innings (200+ in two of the last four years) and is capable of winning 15 games (he did it in 2004), and yes, I know wins are a bad way to judge a pitcher but the point is that he's had decent years. He's only 29. He's lighting it up this spring and he says he wants to be a Cub. I know anyone who falls out with Piniella tends to be gone the next day, although if you really look at Marquis' comments they don't seem unfair, and he's certainly heeded Lou's advice of letting his pitching make the case for his inclusion in the rotation. And need I remind anyone that he threw our only complete game shutout - only complete game, period - last year?

If I were making the rotation right now, I think I'd go Zambrano, Lilly, Lieber, Marquis, Hill, in that order, with Dempster as maybe long-man/spot-starter and Marshall, sorry, probably at Iowa. Dempster has looked great at times, but his ERA is 4.50, so he has had some blow-up moments. Yes, Lilly and Hill both have worse ERAs this spring, but with all due respect, they were both starters last year, which means they have less to prove. If I'm Lou, I clap Dempster on the back, congratulate him on a pretty good spring, and tell him that he's first into the rotation if anyone goes down, but right now we like him better as a guy who maybe goes 2-3 innings or helps break up the rotation on occasion if there are a lot of games in a row.

I still can't believe I feel like I'm worried about the Cubs having too many good players, although I've probably got the rose-colored glasses on a bit. After all, it's easy to look at any bad spring and say "Well, it's just spring training," while simultaneously looking at the good springs and touting them as proof that these guys are ready to rock the house come March 31. I just hope that whoever is on the 25-man come March 31 is ready to rock the house; I'm not prepared for the season to start with a loss to fucking Milwaukee.

Two weeks and counting

It's hard to believe that the new baseball season is only 14 days away. Possibly as hard as it is to believe that the Cubs actually seem to have too many decent starting pitchers. With that in mind, a few things to look at as the season approaches.

Item #1: Who's Going North

The Cubs will meet Milwaukee on March 31 with a 25-man roster. Assuming it's 13 position players and 12 pitchers, here's who I think we're looking at:

Infield: Lee, DeRosa, Theriot, Ramirez
Outfield: Soriano, Pie, Fukudome
Catchers: Soto, Blanco
Reserves: Ward, Fontenot, Murton, Fuld
Starters: Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster, Lieber, Hill, Marquis
Relievers: Wood, Wuertz, Hart, Marmol, Howry, Eyre

It wasn't exactly an easy pick, as I'm sure it won't be for Lou. Other possibilities include Hoffpauir, Cedeno, and Patterson, but I think all three start the year at Iowa (ditto for Koyie Hill, who will probably only get called up if there's an injury). As for pitchers, I'm not entirely sure how the starter logjam gets resolved without a trade, and I suppose Hart might start the year in the minors, though he looked pretty good last year and so far this spring. It's hard to believe Marshall will have to start the year in AAA, but unless Marquis gets moved I don't think Marshall's spring performances have been compelling enough. It's weird to think that the Cubs have too many good players, although it's possible that I like a lot of these guys more than is rational.

We should also note that the potential addition of Brian Roberts changes the list quite a bit (in particular, it probably relegates Fontenot to Iowa, which might not be the worst thing ever), as would the addition of that center fielder Hendry wants, be it Coco Crisp, Marlon Byrd, or whomever. (I think Fuld would be the casualty here, unless Murton were traded.)

Personally I don't want Crisp or Byrd. Why do we need them? Fukudome and Soriano are both capable of playing center - even if the latter clearly doesn't like it - and Murton can play the corners (though he's had some fielding struggles when stuck in right). More importantly, Murton's career OBP is .365, which is pretty dang respectable. Crisp's is .329; Byrd's is .334. You know what this team doesn't need? More assholes who can't get on base. Why not just see what Pie can do rather than hitting the panic button and jerking him around like last year? This team oughta have enough bats that you can bury Pie in the 8th hole if he's not hitting and he's a good defender. And if it's really that bad stick Fukudome in center and Murton in right.

Item #2: Opening Day Batting Order

Here's what I think it will be:

1. Soriano
2. Theriot
3. Lee
4. Ramirez
5. Fukudome
6. DeRosa
7. Soto
8. Pie
9. Pitcher

Here's what I would like it to be:

1. Theriot
2. Fukudome
3. Lee
4. Ramirez
5. Soriano
6. DeRosa
7. Soto
8. Pie
9. Pitcher

I realize that Theriot at the top of the order looks a little silly when his OBP was .326 last year. But it was .412 in 53 games in 2006; now that he's used to playing a full season, maybe he can turn it back up. He's hit all right in spring training, although he needs to take more walks. At any rate, it's good to have speed at the top of the order and Soriano isn't running much these days. That 2-through-5 would be great as long as Lee and Fukudome start hitting (I hope to crap that the Wrigley fans don't boo Fukudome if he starts slowly), and 6-7-8 actually has a lot of potential if DeRo keeps hitting for us, Soto lives up to his potential from last year, and Pie lives up to his potential in general. Really, if everyone does what they're capable of doing this is easily the best lineup in the NL Central and probably not worse than third in the league. That's a pretty big "if" though, as evidenced by the general lack of home runs last season despite three guys who are capable of going for 40.

It should again of course be noted that things will be a bit different if Roberts comes aboard. To wit:

1. Roberts
2. Soriano
3. Lee
4. Ramirez
5. Fukudome
6. Soto
7. Pie
8. Theriot
9. Pitcher

Yeah, I would move Soriano back up to second if we actually had a reliable leadoff guy who could steal bases. Soriano needs to be in a place where he can drive in runs; otherwise, his low OBP and high SLG are kinda being wasted. The only universe in which it makes sense to hit Soriano leadoff is one in which he's convinced himself that he has to hit leadoff and won't produce anywhere else. I think the experiment with moving him last year was abandoned too quickly; how much was 40 total PAs going to tell us? On the other hand, the pressure to win this year is probably even greater than it was last year, so if Soriano is moved and struggles early, there's going to be a clamor to hit him leadoff again. I think only the presence of Roberts - a natural leadoff hitter convincingly better-suited for that spot than Soriano (unlike Theriot, who was even worse at getting on base last year than Fonzie was) - might keep Soriano from spending the bulk of the year hitting leadoff. I suppose if he hits 46 home runs again it might not matter, but just think what those 46 home runs might do if more came with men on base.

Item #3: Johnny, Are You Worried Yet?

I'm certainly not ready to hand the Cubs the World Series, no matter how symmetrical, nor even the NL. I think we're definitely the favorites for the division, particularly since we underachieved last year and should field a stronger lineup this year, but I'm still looking at the Brewers with some trepidation. The rest of the division, maybe not so much - the Pirates look awful, the Cardinals seem ready to collapse, I have no idea who's going to get the ball to Jose Valverde in Houston, and the Reds are probably a year away, although with Dusty at the helm trying to get Adam Dunn to strike out 300 times, one wonders if they'll ever get there. The rest of the league is less of a layup; the whole East is kind of scary with the possible exception of Washington (Florida wouldn't be scary if they didn't have our number for some reason) and we struggled against the West last year. But with a little seasoning, I think we'd be a tougher out in the playoffs than last year.

I always hate to get ahead of myself with the Cubs. It never seems to turn out well. But I like rooting for this team a lot right now. Hopefully I'll like it even more in five months.