Making a mountain out of a mole Hill

I know, I know - it's spring training. But just when I think I have a handle on what the Cubs are going to do, or should do, a guy looks better or worse and makes me rethink everything, which makes me wonder how Lou is going to handle this.

* Murton was 2-for-4 with two doubles and two runs scored against the Rockies today; he's hitting .354 in the spring and I think he has to go north and stay with the team. Why would you get rid of this guy when he's proven he can hit and get on base? Okay, he's not a great defender in right and he probably can't play center, which means you probably can't start him unless Fukudome moves to center. And either way he's not a huge power guy, which is what you'd to get from a corner OF (not that Fukudome is expected to be a huge power guy either, of course, and at least Murton's hitting right now). But the main point is, why would you trade this guy for Marlon Byrd, which is apparently what the Cubs wanted to do a couple months ago? Marlon Byrd? He doesn't have any power either and doesn't get on base like Murton (.334 career, although .355 last year). Yes, he can play center, but he plays it below-average according to the fielding stats (although we all know that fielding stats aren't necessarily the most reliable things on earth). Murton's stats are slightly above average, and he's been worth 6.2 wins over replacement the last two years, while Byrd has been worth just 3.9. And Murton hits lefties, which is what you supposedly want, Hendry! In fact, he kills them - .326 with a .909 OPS career. What is the problem here?

* I'm starting to think that the rotation issue is going to be resolved by Rich Hill pitching his way right out of it. Hill started today, and the good news is he only allowed one hit. The bad news is he walked six in one and a third, allowing two ER (three total). His spring ERA is now 7.11, which would probably get him a nice sponsorship deal if he worked for the White Sox. I'm not sure what to do with Hill right now - by most accounts he hasn't looked very good, and I hope it doesn't have anything to do with doubling his workload from 99 innings in 2006 to 195 last year. He was a solid #3 last year, going 11-8 with a 3.92 ERA (119 ERA+), and you hate to lose a lefty from your rotation. But with Lieber, Dempster and Marquis all pitching great right now, and with the expectations high around here, can we possibly afford to let Hill pitch his way out of this with the big club?

* Meanwhile, Neal Cotts, who has seemed to pitch himself off the team several times this spring, went two innings today, giving up a hit and two walks but allowing no runs. He even got the win! Kerry Wood also returned from back spasms to throw an inning; he allowed two hits and a run, but he did strike out two. Michael Wuertz continues to look like the best guy in the pen, striking out two and allowing no hits in 1.1 innings. In 8.0 spring innings, Wuertz has allowed five hits, struck out 13, and has an ERA of triple bagels. Wuertz has always been kind of overlooked - his career ERA+ is 127, and his K/9 is nearly 10. Let's hope he keeps this up. Marmol's been looking a little shaky, which means we need a shutdown guy in the middle. Although even if Marmol were looking great, who doesn't want more shutdown guys in the middle?

(I just looked and Marmol's spring ERA is 2.08. Maybe not that shaky. Although he's walked six in 8.2 innings, so.)

* Marquis is apparently being dangled as trade bait. Which I understand - but his spring ERA is 1.93! Okay, so he'll probably turn into a pumpkin sometime around July 1 - last year his first half ERA was 3.67 and his second half ERA was 5.73 - but he eats innings (200+ in two of the last four years) and is capable of winning 15 games (he did it in 2004), and yes, I know wins are a bad way to judge a pitcher but the point is that he's had decent years. He's only 29. He's lighting it up this spring and he says he wants to be a Cub. I know anyone who falls out with Piniella tends to be gone the next day, although if you really look at Marquis' comments they don't seem unfair, and he's certainly heeded Lou's advice of letting his pitching make the case for his inclusion in the rotation. And need I remind anyone that he threw our only complete game shutout - only complete game, period - last year?

If I were making the rotation right now, I think I'd go Zambrano, Lilly, Lieber, Marquis, Hill, in that order, with Dempster as maybe long-man/spot-starter and Marshall, sorry, probably at Iowa. Dempster has looked great at times, but his ERA is 4.50, so he has had some blow-up moments. Yes, Lilly and Hill both have worse ERAs this spring, but with all due respect, they were both starters last year, which means they have less to prove. If I'm Lou, I clap Dempster on the back, congratulate him on a pretty good spring, and tell him that he's first into the rotation if anyone goes down, but right now we like him better as a guy who maybe goes 2-3 innings or helps break up the rotation on occasion if there are a lot of games in a row.

I still can't believe I feel like I'm worried about the Cubs having too many good players, although I've probably got the rose-colored glasses on a bit. After all, it's easy to look at any bad spring and say "Well, it's just spring training," while simultaneously looking at the good springs and touting them as proof that these guys are ready to rock the house come March 31. I just hope that whoever is on the 25-man come March 31 is ready to rock the house; I'm not prepared for the season to start with a loss to fucking Milwaukee.