Two weeks and counting

It's hard to believe that the new baseball season is only 14 days away. Possibly as hard as it is to believe that the Cubs actually seem to have too many decent starting pitchers. With that in mind, a few things to look at as the season approaches.

Item #1: Who's Going North

The Cubs will meet Milwaukee on March 31 with a 25-man roster. Assuming it's 13 position players and 12 pitchers, here's who I think we're looking at:

Infield: Lee, DeRosa, Theriot, Ramirez
Outfield: Soriano, Pie, Fukudome
Catchers: Soto, Blanco
Reserves: Ward, Fontenot, Murton, Fuld
Starters: Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster, Lieber, Hill, Marquis
Relievers: Wood, Wuertz, Hart, Marmol, Howry, Eyre

It wasn't exactly an easy pick, as I'm sure it won't be for Lou. Other possibilities include Hoffpauir, Cedeno, and Patterson, but I think all three start the year at Iowa (ditto for Koyie Hill, who will probably only get called up if there's an injury). As for pitchers, I'm not entirely sure how the starter logjam gets resolved without a trade, and I suppose Hart might start the year in the minors, though he looked pretty good last year and so far this spring. It's hard to believe Marshall will have to start the year in AAA, but unless Marquis gets moved I don't think Marshall's spring performances have been compelling enough. It's weird to think that the Cubs have too many good players, although it's possible that I like a lot of these guys more than is rational.

We should also note that the potential addition of Brian Roberts changes the list quite a bit (in particular, it probably relegates Fontenot to Iowa, which might not be the worst thing ever), as would the addition of that center fielder Hendry wants, be it Coco Crisp, Marlon Byrd, or whomever. (I think Fuld would be the casualty here, unless Murton were traded.)

Personally I don't want Crisp or Byrd. Why do we need them? Fukudome and Soriano are both capable of playing center - even if the latter clearly doesn't like it - and Murton can play the corners (though he's had some fielding struggles when stuck in right). More importantly, Murton's career OBP is .365, which is pretty dang respectable. Crisp's is .329; Byrd's is .334. You know what this team doesn't need? More assholes who can't get on base. Why not just see what Pie can do rather than hitting the panic button and jerking him around like last year? This team oughta have enough bats that you can bury Pie in the 8th hole if he's not hitting and he's a good defender. And if it's really that bad stick Fukudome in center and Murton in right.

Item #2: Opening Day Batting Order

Here's what I think it will be:

1. Soriano
2. Theriot
3. Lee
4. Ramirez
5. Fukudome
6. DeRosa
7. Soto
8. Pie
9. Pitcher

Here's what I would like it to be:

1. Theriot
2. Fukudome
3. Lee
4. Ramirez
5. Soriano
6. DeRosa
7. Soto
8. Pie
9. Pitcher

I realize that Theriot at the top of the order looks a little silly when his OBP was .326 last year. But it was .412 in 53 games in 2006; now that he's used to playing a full season, maybe he can turn it back up. He's hit all right in spring training, although he needs to take more walks. At any rate, it's good to have speed at the top of the order and Soriano isn't running much these days. That 2-through-5 would be great as long as Lee and Fukudome start hitting (I hope to crap that the Wrigley fans don't boo Fukudome if he starts slowly), and 6-7-8 actually has a lot of potential if DeRo keeps hitting for us, Soto lives up to his potential from last year, and Pie lives up to his potential in general. Really, if everyone does what they're capable of doing this is easily the best lineup in the NL Central and probably not worse than third in the league. That's a pretty big "if" though, as evidenced by the general lack of home runs last season despite three guys who are capable of going for 40.

It should again of course be noted that things will be a bit different if Roberts comes aboard. To wit:

1. Roberts
2. Soriano
3. Lee
4. Ramirez
5. Fukudome
6. Soto
7. Pie
8. Theriot
9. Pitcher

Yeah, I would move Soriano back up to second if we actually had a reliable leadoff guy who could steal bases. Soriano needs to be in a place where he can drive in runs; otherwise, his low OBP and high SLG are kinda being wasted. The only universe in which it makes sense to hit Soriano leadoff is one in which he's convinced himself that he has to hit leadoff and won't produce anywhere else. I think the experiment with moving him last year was abandoned too quickly; how much was 40 total PAs going to tell us? On the other hand, the pressure to win this year is probably even greater than it was last year, so if Soriano is moved and struggles early, there's going to be a clamor to hit him leadoff again. I think only the presence of Roberts - a natural leadoff hitter convincingly better-suited for that spot than Soriano (unlike Theriot, who was even worse at getting on base last year than Fonzie was) - might keep Soriano from spending the bulk of the year hitting leadoff. I suppose if he hits 46 home runs again it might not matter, but just think what those 46 home runs might do if more came with men on base.

Item #3: Johnny, Are You Worried Yet?

I'm certainly not ready to hand the Cubs the World Series, no matter how symmetrical, nor even the NL. I think we're definitely the favorites for the division, particularly since we underachieved last year and should field a stronger lineup this year, but I'm still looking at the Brewers with some trepidation. The rest of the division, maybe not so much - the Pirates look awful, the Cardinals seem ready to collapse, I have no idea who's going to get the ball to Jose Valverde in Houston, and the Reds are probably a year away, although with Dusty at the helm trying to get Adam Dunn to strike out 300 times, one wonders if they'll ever get there. The rest of the league is less of a layup; the whole East is kind of scary with the possible exception of Washington (Florida wouldn't be scary if they didn't have our number for some reason) and we struggled against the West last year. But with a little seasoning, I think we'd be a tougher out in the playoffs than last year.

I always hate to get ahead of myself with the Cubs. It never seems to turn out well. But I like rooting for this team a lot right now. Hopefully I'll like it even more in five months.