I did this last year, and okay, it wasn't exactly a harbinger of good things for the playoffs. But with 11 games left to win, here are the 11 best Cubs games of the 2008 regular season, this time with video! Let's hope that by the time October's over, they're games #12-22 of the 2008 season.
11. "Atta boy, Jimmy!" (June 12)
Hosting the Braves and Tim Hudson, the Cubs struggled to get much offense going all day behind Carlos Zambrano. Trailing 2-1 entering the bottom of the ninth, Jim Edmonds - who was still fairly new as a Cub and trying to win the fans over - smacked a 1-0 offering from Blaine Boyer out to left to tie the game, eliciting this call from Len Kasper, who (on WGN's 60th anniversary) had clearly been saving it all day. Perhaps even more entertaining was the Cubs winning the game in the 11th when they loaded the bases and Reed Johnson took a ball off his shoe to drive in the winning run.
10. Revenge is a dish best served cold (May 11)
Hosting the Diamondbacks for the first time since being eliminated from the playoffs in three straight games the previous October, the Cubs had already won the series with a Sunday game against Randy Johnson looming. But due to the conditions (cold, wet, and with a 24-mph breeze blowing in), both teams scrapped their intended starters, treating the fans to Sean Gallagher against Edgar Gonzalez. Gonzalez got the better of the head-to-head, but the Cubs rallied - down 4-2 in the seventh, they scored two to tie it when Reed Johnson smacked a no-doubt line drive into the teeth of the wind in left center, his first Cubs home run. In the eighth, Daryle Ward blasted a pinch-hit two-run double to right center, and the Cubs swept the D-Backs out of Wrigley with a 6-4 win, an early statement series for the season (at a time when people still thought the D-Backs were good).
9. Ward pinches the Fish (August 15)
Daryle Ward might not have had the kind of 2008 we all hoped for after his stellar 2007, but he could still come through in a big spot. Aside from the above mentioned double to beat Arizona, he also had a dramatic go-ahead three-run homer on the same night that Michael Phelps won his seventh gold in Beijing. (So you can see why Ward got overshadowed.) With the Cubs down 5-3 against Marlins closer Kevin Gregg, Mark DeRosa drew a walk and Reed Johnson singled, leading to Ward's heroics. The Cubs held on to win 6-5 (not without a scare as Wood walked one, hit another and threw a wild pitch), their fifth in a row at the time.
8. "Beating" Sabathia (July 28)
The Brewers had been adrift in the Central, falling as far back as 8.5 games on June 15 - the exact same deficit the Cubs had come back from a year earlier. And the Brewers, like the Cubs, came all the way back by the end of July, tying the division on July 26 and entering a pivotal four-game series in Milwaukee just a game back, having already taken four of six from the Cubs at Wrigley earlier in the year. The Cubs weren't about to yield anything, even against Milwaukee's newly-acquired ace CC Sabathia, who was already 4-0 as a Brewer with three complete games and a shutout. Ted Lilly was pitching well until giving up consecutive homers to J.J. Hardy and Ryan Braun in the sixth, followed by a run-scoring double to Corey Hart that put the Cubs behind 3-2. Sabathia couldn't hold the lead, however, giving up two singles, a double steal and a walk that loaded the bases with one out. Derrek Lee grounded into what looked like an inning-ending double play, but Reed Johnson made a good takeout slide into second and Rickie Weeks fired wide of first, scoring two runs and putting the Cubs back ahead 4-3. Bob Howry blew the lead in the bottom of the inning with a solo home run to Russell Branyan, but the Cubs won it 6-4 in the ninth, Lee atoning for his near-DP with a double to score the go-ahead run. It was the only game the Brewers would lose behind Sabathia (though he ended without a decision) until the Cubs beat him outright on September 16.
7. Really beating Sabathia (September 16)
Speaking of which, here's that game. By this point the Cubs had an eight-game lead in the division, and they entered their final series with Milwaukee at Wrigley with a magic number of six. They lowered it to four after finally handing Sabathia an L to call his own, though it was close. The Cubs led 3-0 after three thanks to a couple of RBI doubles from Lee and Ramirez, but the Brewers closed it to 3-2 in the top of the sixth when Ryan Dempster allowed a mammoth home run to the mammoth Prince Fielder. Sabathia was still around in the seventh when Alfonso Soriano added a much-needed insurance run, taking the big fella deep to left to make it 4-2. Fielder struck again to lead off the eighth, but the Cubs added another run in the bottom of the inning with a Henry Blanco pinch-hit RBI single. This was again needed to survive a set of Kerry Wood adventures in the ninth, which finally ended the game at 5-4 when he struck Fielder out looking on a gutsy breaking pitch.
6. Rallying past the Phillies (August 28)
Opening a big home series against one of the NL contenders, the Cubs trailed 4-1 going into the bottom of the eighth after doing little against Cole Hamels. Although the Phillies' bullpen was strong for much of the year, seeing anyone but Hamels suited the Cubs as they scored five runs in the eighth. Mike Fontenot led off the inning with a pinch-hit homer, and a double, single and walk loaded the bases for Aramis Ramirez, who put the Cubs up 6-4 with a single swing. Wood had to face the big bats in the ninth, but allowed just a single to Jimmy Rollins, ending the game with a Ryan Howard pop-up.
5. Rallying past the Brewers (September 18)
For sheer degree of difficulty, it's tough to top this game (although the Cubs managed it; see #3). The Cubs trailed 6-2 heading into the bottom of the ninth, and proceeded to make two quick outs; at this point, the likelihood of them winning the game was so low that Baseball-Reference actually rounds it down to zero. But Ramirez doubled on the first pitch he saw, Edmonds singled (scoring Ramirez to make it 6-3), and DeRosa singled, bringing up Geovany Soto, who also took a liking to the first pitch he saw and murdered it to left center, enough of a no-doubter that, as you can see on the video, Ryan Braun didn't even move. This sent the game to extras; Marmol and Wood mowed the Brewers down in the 10th and 11th, but in the 12th Wood put himself in a second and third, no out jam before working out of it. In the bottom of the 12th, Derrek Lee came up with two outs and runners at second and third; he'd been 0-for-5, but picked a good time for his first hit, lacing a single up the middle to win the game and drop the Cubs' magic number to two.
4. Mr. Clutch (June 20)
Aramis Ramirez has taken heat over the years for not hustling all the time, but he was pretty good at coming through when it mattered in 2008, and isn't that what's really important? Perhaps the best example was the opening game of interleague against the White Sox; the Cubs trailed 3-1 after doing little off John Danks in six innings, but Octavio Dotel was greeted with consecutive homers from Lee and Ramirez to open the seventh (winning some lucky WGN listener $7,000, no less), tying the game up. There it stayed until the bottom of the ninth, when Ramirez, leading off against Scott Linebrink, hit the second pitch to pretty much dead center. The Cubs had six walk-off wins in 2008, but this was the only one on a home run.
3. Climbing the Rockies Mountain (May 30)
Ted Lilly won 17 games for the Cubs in 2008, but he was also capable of having really bad outings. This was one such; Lilly lasted just three innings, allowing seven runs (though only four were earned). Jon Lieber replaced him and allowed two more; by the time the Cubs came to bat in the fifth, they were already down 9-1 and their chance of winning the game was down to about 1%. It was bad enough that Lou Piniella actually pulled Lee and Soto, putting Blanco and Micah Hoffpauir in their places. This turned out to be a pretty good move. Hoffpauir smacked a double to start the sixth, which was followed by home runs from Kosuke Fukudome and Jim Edmonds, cutting the deficit to 9-4. Still, the Cubs only had a 3% chance of winning entering the seventh inning, which they turned around in a hurry. With one out, Mike Fontenot singled, followed by a Blanco home run to cut the lead to 9-6. After Hoffpauir and Fukudome singled, Edmonds hit a deep double to center, scoring both runners and cutting it to 9-8. The next hitter was Mark DeRosa, who lifted a full-count pitch into the breeze, giving it enough to carry to the seats in left center and sending the remaining fans (of which there were surprisingly many, but then why leave the ballpark early on a late spring afternoon?) into a frenzy. The Cubs still had to hold the slim 10-9 lead, but Marmol struck out the side in the eighth, and Wood got a convenient lineout double play in the ninth before Todd Helton ended it with a flyout to right.
2. The Clinch (September 20)
Only once in the division play era had the Cubs clinched things at home (2003), and the time was right to add a second, especially against the rival Cardinals and on national TV. The Cubs jumped ahead with three runs in the second, as Soriano hit a single that skipped past Brian Barton in left, clearing the bases and allowing Soriano to go all the way to third. The Cubs tacked on two more in the fourth on a Mark DeRosa RBI double and, amusingly, a suicide squeeze from Ted Lilly (he ended up being safe on the play when the Cardinals attempted to get DeRosa at home and failed). Lilly's squeeze, somewhat fittingly, ended up being the difference, as he scuffled in the sixth, giving up a predictable home run to Troy Glaus to cut the lead to 5-4. That was as close as the Cardinals would get, however, as Kerry Wood closed the door once more in the ninth - also fittingly, as he's the only Cub to appear on every playoff team of the wild card era.
1. Zambra-No (September 14)
It was an up-and-down season for Carlos Zambrano, as it often is. But he found time to throw the first Cubs no-hitter since Milt Pappas in 1972, oddly enough against the Astros at Miller Park, the game having been moved due to Hurricane Ike (or, if you believe Astros fans, due to an anti-Houston conspiracy cooked up by secret Cubs fan Bud Selig). Zambrano needed 110 pitches, striking out 10 (including the last batter of the game) and walking just one (he put a second man on with a hit by pitch). Alfonso Soriano led off the game with a home run, and it was all the offense the Cubs needed; the Astros only sent two balls out of the infield, both caught by Mark DeRosa in right. It was a great moment, and yet another historic punctuation to a season we all hope will end with even bigger things. (And yes, Zambrano followed this up with the worst post-no-hitter start since Bob Forsch in 1978. Let's not dwell on that.)
The playoffs start tomorrow. Recaps/commentary will be here, hopefully for a lot longer than they were last year. Go Cubs go.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Sunday, September 28, 2008
Dodge this.
There won't be a New York team in the playoffs, and I'm feelin' fine. But now that we know the Cubs' opponent, it's time to focus on the Dodgers and see just how these teams match up.
Season Series: Cubs 5, Dodgers 2
The Cubs took all three games at Wrigley Field in late May before splitting four at Chavez Ravine a week later. Just about every game in the series was pretty close, though; the Cubs won the first two games at Wrigley by identical 3-1 scores, then squeezed out a 2-1 win in the finale only by scraping out a run in the ninth and then another in the tenth. In LA, the Cubs blew a 4-0 lead in the first game but got a run in the ninth to win 5-4; the Dodgers then got a complete-game shutout from Hiroki Kuroda, followed by a 7-3 win when Carlos Zambrano fell apart in the bottom of the seventh. The Cubs salvaged a split, winning the fourth game by that familiar 3-1 score behind, somewhat surprisingly, Jason Marquis, who allowed just three hits in 6.1 innings.
Reason not to take the season series results very seriously: Manny Ramirez
The Cubs played all their games against a Dodgers team that was still sending Juan Pierre into left every day (and, for that matter, that was still going with Chin-Lung Hu and his .181 batting average at short). Going into today, Manny Ramirez was putting up this line as a Dodger: .396/.489/.743, with 17 homers and 53 RBI in 53 games. A little better than Juan Pierre and his .327 OBP and .329 slugging.
Position-by-Position
To be honest, it's not entirely clear to me who the starters are at some positions for LA. For example, Rafael Furcal started the year as the starter at short. Then I think he was injured, and most recently the starter had been Angel Berroa - until Furcal started the last three games. Also, Jeff Kent has been on and off at second base. And frankly, how one evaluates the Dodgers changes a lot depending on whether Kent and Furcal are starting, as opposed to Blake DeWitt and Berroa. So I'll have to play the comps a bit by ear, here, based on what they're likely to throw out. Could I wait until Torre announces his roster? Maybe, but I don't feel like it.
Catcher: Geovany Soto vs. Russell Martin
Martin is a very good hitter for a catcher - .279/.384/.395 this year - and he's pretty strong defensively, winning the Gold Glove last year (I know, I know). He's also caught the staff with the lowest ERA in the NL, for whatever that's worth. But Soto has been a more valuable hitter - .285/.364/.504 - and his staff isn't too shabby itself, plus Soto's caught-stealing percentage is slightly higher.
Edge: Cubs, though not by as much as you might think.
First Base: Derrek Lee vs. James Loney
Loney's had an okay year, but hasn't flashed a lot of power for a first baseman - his OPS+ is actually just below average, at 99. His .341 OBP is pretty mediocre as well. Lee, for all the knocks on him, still managed to get to 20 home runs (although most were at home) and had a .363 OBP, which isn't too bad. For all the noise about his double plays, he ended up grounding into 26, but Loney grounded into 25 himself. Add in the fact that Lee is a great defensive first baseman while Loney is average, and the fact that Loney is in his second full season while Lee has a World Series ring, and that should give the Cubs the edge.
Edge: Cubs.
Second Base: Mark DeRosa vs. Jeff Kent/Blake DeWitt
This depends a lot both on DeRosa's health - he's been nursing a strained calf for a few days - and on which player is actually starting for the Dodgers. Kent came off the DL last Saturday, but has only appeared in three games since then and only twice as a second baseman. I'm guessing Kent gets the nod if he's healthy, as DeWitt is just a rookie and hasn't hit all that well (although he's having a strong September), but Kent's OBP for the year is only .327. He murdered the Cubs in his five games against them, though, going 8-for-19 with two home runs. As for DeRosa, assuming he's fully healthy, he's having a career year, setting new career marks in home runs, RBI, runs scored, walks, and OBP and slugging. All this and he's been 11 runs above average on defense, despite being shuttled around between four different positions and appearing in right field more often than at second base in September. For this he's been worth 7.8 WARP1 and is top 30 in the NL in VORP; Kent has been a below average defender and contributed just 2.3 wins to the Dodger cause.
Edge: Cubs if DeRosa is healthy, although even if they're forced to start Mike Fontenot at second, they might still have the edge (Fontenot was worth more wins that either Kent or DeWitt this year).
Shortstop: Ryan Theriot vs. Rafael Furcal/Angel Berroa
It seems like it's Furcal's job now that he's back, and why not - his OBP in 36 games is .439, compared to Berroa's .305 in 83 games. Furcal has also been the superior defender historically in spite of his occasional tendency to air-mail throws to first. As for Theriot, he's never going to be mistaken for Alex Rodriguez at the plate, what with his one home run this year, but he's been pretty good at finding a way on base in big spots, whether by slapping a single or drawing a walk, and he does walk more than he strikes out, which is certainly a nice feature. All told he's been worth about five wins to the Cubs; all the guys who have played short for the Dodgers combined add up to just slightly more, although a full season of Furcal, presumably, would have been worth more than that (I would project, but his slashes are so high in his short period of time that it's going to be inflated past what he likely would actually have contributed). At any rate, a fully healthy Furcal - if that's what he is - is probably a better player than Theriot.
Edge: Dodgers if Furcal is 100%, Cubs if he's not (and especially if he isn't playing at all).
Third Base: Aramis Ramirez vs. Casey Blake
Blake has hit 10 home runs since coming over from Cleveland, but his OBP is .313. Ramirez, meanwhile, might be the best hitter on the Cubs. The two are probably about a wash on defense, so you have to give the edge to Ramirez's offense.
Edge: Cubs.
Left Field: Alfonso Soriano vs. Manny Ramirez
Soriano, somewhat quietly, is really the engine that drives the Cubs. When he's out, you can tell; just look at the Cubs' record without him this year. He added 5.8 wins in just 108 games played; over a full season he might have added nearly 9, a pretty robust number. But Ramirez has added a mind-boggling 5.3 wins to the Dodgers in 53 games since coming over! He gives that lineup an entirely new dimension, and he's also got a ton of playoff experience.
Edge: Dodgers.
Center Field: Jim Edmonds/Reed Johnson vs. Matt Kemp
I was surprised to see Baseball Prospectus credit Kemp with 6.1 WARP1, since his OBP is only .340 and he's listed as an average fielder. I was even more surprised to then find out that combined, Edmonds and Johnson have only added 6.6 wins to the Cubs. Consider, however, that Kemp has played in almost every game for the Dodgers, while Edmonds and Johnson combined have about 25 fewer at-bats than Kemp does alone. Given the Cubs' ability to platoon, and the postseason experience Edmonds brings, I think you have to favor the Cubs here.
Edge: Cubs.
Right Field: Kosuke Fukudome vs. Andre Ethier
There's no guarantee Fukudome will even be starting, of course; if his bat stays silent, Piniella might try to play DeRosa out there (though that would depend on his injury) or even Hoffpauir (although that's a lot of defense to give up in a playoff environment). Either way, you probably have to give the offensive edge to LA; Ethier is hitting .302/.373/.507 this year, but .447/.547/.671 in September, possibly thanks to hitting in front of Ramirez, and seeing better pitches as a result, for most of the month. The Cubs have the advantage on defense, but for the moment you have to give the Dodgers the nod thanks to Ethier's hot bat.
Edge: Dodgers.
Starting Pitching: Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, Rich Harden and Ted Lilly vs. Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda and Greg Maddux
Dempster finished third in the NL in VORP, the highest among this group; next was Billingsley at seventh. Lowe was tenth, and while you have to go all the way to 23rd to hit the next Cub, Zambrano, Lilly and Harden are bunched up at 23, 24 and 28, just ahead of Kuroda at 30 and well ahead of Maddux at #80 (most of that accomplished with the Padres, of course). But Maddux might not even start; Joe Torre has suggested Lowe could come back on short rest in Game Four if the situation called for it. At any rate, this will probably be a series for people who love pitching. Certainly it was in the regular season, with both teams scoring less than three runs per game.
The opening game will match Dempster and Lowe. Dempster, famously, was 14-3 at Wrigley this year, while Lowe has been touchable on the road, his BAA rising from .206 at Chavez Ravine all the way to .292. He doesn't walk many, though, and he's a sinker-ball pitcher, both factors that will give the Cubs trouble. Lowe started twice against the Cubs this year, both times matching up with Zambrano; he got a no-decision after seven shutout innings in the Dodgers' 2-1 loss on May 28, but won the 7-3 Dodgers win in LA on June 7, though he allowed three runs in seven innings in that one. Dempster was also 1-0 with a no-decision against LA, though the Cubs won both games; his start at Wrigley was seven innings of one-run ball.
Game Two as scheduled will pit Zambrano against Billingsley. Like Lowe, Billingsley has pitched worse on the road - not surprising for pitchers in a pitcher's park - but not by much, and he's only got a couple bad starts all year. Zambrano, of course, is Zambrano; really, who has any idea what to expect out of him at this point? He might go eight innings and give up three hits, or he might get knocked out in the fourth. His biggest problem is always walks; if he can restrict those and keep himself under emotional control, he could be great. Let's not forget that he turned in a strong start on the road last year in the playoffs after sucking out loud for much of the final two months. The good news is, the Dodgers don't take a ton of walks. The bad news is they pounded 13 hits off him in his June 7 start in LA.
Game Three should match up Harden and Kuroda in Los Angeles, where Kuroda blanked the Cubs on June 6. Like Lowe, Kuroda does not issue a lot of walks (in fact, the Dodgers were second in walks allowed, which partially explains their #1 ERA); he's also pitched better at home, though like Billingsley, the split isn't all that wide. Harden is one of the most unhittable pitchers in baseball; in seven of his 12 starts for the Cubs, he's allowed no more than two hits. Two! The only problems, of course, are (1) in three of those starts, he's only gone five innings and (2) he's also got four starts with at least four walks. The piece de resistance was on September 18, when he threw 115 pitches in five innings against the Brewers, walking six and striking out seven. (I believe he also hit the bull mascot twice.) His ERA with the Cubs is 1.77, but that's only so useful if he's forcing you to call the bullpen after five innings. Hopefully he can turn in seven of similar quality in what will likely be yet another pitchers' duel. Harden has been slightly worse on the road this year, but since he's a flyball pitcher when the ball actually gets in play, starting him away from Wrigley Field probably isn't a bad thing.
Ted Lilly may be the hottest pitcher the Cubs have; he's gone 16-5 since a 1-4 start, and lowered his ERA to 4.09 after it was over 5.00 as late as June 10. He's pitched particularly well on the road of late, with his last two road starts both seeing him take no-hitters into the seventh inning (and both times at Miller Park). For the season, he's 10-4, 3.77 on the road next to 7-5, 4.50 at home, so throwing him out there on the road in a pitcher's park can't be a bad thing. Of course, he might not make a start in this series depending on how things go. As for who he would face, it's either Lowe on short rest or Maddux, who has been mediocre as a Dodger.
Edge: It's pretty even, which isn't surprising when you have the top two teams in ERA going at it. But because of the home field advantage and the way the pitching lines up with that, I'd probably give a very slight edge to the Cubs, pretty much no more edge than the home field allows for. Obviously a lot of this depends on which Zambrano shows up. A top-of-his-game Zambrano, following a good outing by Dempster, gives the Cubs a good chance of being up 2-0 when heading out west. If Zambrano drops a bomb, that pretty well changes the complexion of the series.
Middle Relief: Carlos Marmol, Jeff Samardzija and the rest vs. Joe Beimel, Jonathan Broxton, Cory Wade, Chan Ho Park and the rest
The Dodgers have more middle relievers in which I'd be willing to have confidence; the Cubs are pretty much down to two, and frankly I'm not sure I trust Samardzija all that far right now. The Cubs catch a break in that Hong-Chih Kuo, possibly the Dodgers' best reliever, won't be available, but they've got several guys with sub-3.00 ERAs. I don't even know who Piniella wants to take besides the above two since everyone else has been so lousy; I expect Howry will show up on the roster, and at least one of Marshall and Cotts. Kevin Hart has also pitched fairly well since being called back up on September 1. I've gotta think Marmol is the best of this bunch, and in fact he's fifth in baseball in WXRL, a reliever's win expectation over replacement (lineup-adjusted), adding more than five wins to the Cubs, a lot for a guy who pitches under 100 innings. But you go through six Dodgers on the list before you get to another Cub who isn't Wood, and that's Marshall at #125 in baseball. On volume, the Dodgers are better, and more equipped to handle the early departure of a starter.
Edge: Dodgers.
Closer: Kerry Wood vs. Takashi Saito
Saito was out for two months and has only had one save chance since coming back, but I'm assuming he'll be the closer in the playoffs. Edge to Wood mostly on the freshness count; Saito's stats are comparable to Wood's, with a better ERA, but the Cubs have also handed him a blown save and a loss this year in the two times he came on in either a save situation or a tie.
Slight edge: Cubs.
Put it all together: The Cubs are going to be the favorites, and they should be, but this isn't going to be a cakewalk. In the playoffs, you need good starting pitching, timely hitting, and a bit of luck. Last year the Cubs had none of that. If they want to avoid another, even more serious disappointment, things have to begin with the starters and roll from there; that's how the Red Sox and White Sox broke their droughts (the latter in particular). This should be obvious, of course, but that's what I'll be looking forward to seeing starting Wednesday. This team is the best team in the NL and it should be representing the league in the World Series if it plays up to its potential. Whether or not that happens... that's why they play the games.
Season Series: Cubs 5, Dodgers 2
The Cubs took all three games at Wrigley Field in late May before splitting four at Chavez Ravine a week later. Just about every game in the series was pretty close, though; the Cubs won the first two games at Wrigley by identical 3-1 scores, then squeezed out a 2-1 win in the finale only by scraping out a run in the ninth and then another in the tenth. In LA, the Cubs blew a 4-0 lead in the first game but got a run in the ninth to win 5-4; the Dodgers then got a complete-game shutout from Hiroki Kuroda, followed by a 7-3 win when Carlos Zambrano fell apart in the bottom of the seventh. The Cubs salvaged a split, winning the fourth game by that familiar 3-1 score behind, somewhat surprisingly, Jason Marquis, who allowed just three hits in 6.1 innings.
Reason not to take the season series results very seriously: Manny Ramirez
The Cubs played all their games against a Dodgers team that was still sending Juan Pierre into left every day (and, for that matter, that was still going with Chin-Lung Hu and his .181 batting average at short). Going into today, Manny Ramirez was putting up this line as a Dodger: .396/.489/.743, with 17 homers and 53 RBI in 53 games. A little better than Juan Pierre and his .327 OBP and .329 slugging.
Position-by-Position
To be honest, it's not entirely clear to me who the starters are at some positions for LA. For example, Rafael Furcal started the year as the starter at short. Then I think he was injured, and most recently the starter had been Angel Berroa - until Furcal started the last three games. Also, Jeff Kent has been on and off at second base. And frankly, how one evaluates the Dodgers changes a lot depending on whether Kent and Furcal are starting, as opposed to Blake DeWitt and Berroa. So I'll have to play the comps a bit by ear, here, based on what they're likely to throw out. Could I wait until Torre announces his roster? Maybe, but I don't feel like it.
Catcher: Geovany Soto vs. Russell Martin
Martin is a very good hitter for a catcher - .279/.384/.395 this year - and he's pretty strong defensively, winning the Gold Glove last year (I know, I know). He's also caught the staff with the lowest ERA in the NL, for whatever that's worth. But Soto has been a more valuable hitter - .285/.364/.504 - and his staff isn't too shabby itself, plus Soto's caught-stealing percentage is slightly higher.
Edge: Cubs, though not by as much as you might think.
First Base: Derrek Lee vs. James Loney
Loney's had an okay year, but hasn't flashed a lot of power for a first baseman - his OPS+ is actually just below average, at 99. His .341 OBP is pretty mediocre as well. Lee, for all the knocks on him, still managed to get to 20 home runs (although most were at home) and had a .363 OBP, which isn't too bad. For all the noise about his double plays, he ended up grounding into 26, but Loney grounded into 25 himself. Add in the fact that Lee is a great defensive first baseman while Loney is average, and the fact that Loney is in his second full season while Lee has a World Series ring, and that should give the Cubs the edge.
Edge: Cubs.
Second Base: Mark DeRosa vs. Jeff Kent/Blake DeWitt
This depends a lot both on DeRosa's health - he's been nursing a strained calf for a few days - and on which player is actually starting for the Dodgers. Kent came off the DL last Saturday, but has only appeared in three games since then and only twice as a second baseman. I'm guessing Kent gets the nod if he's healthy, as DeWitt is just a rookie and hasn't hit all that well (although he's having a strong September), but Kent's OBP for the year is only .327. He murdered the Cubs in his five games against them, though, going 8-for-19 with two home runs. As for DeRosa, assuming he's fully healthy, he's having a career year, setting new career marks in home runs, RBI, runs scored, walks, and OBP and slugging. All this and he's been 11 runs above average on defense, despite being shuttled around between four different positions and appearing in right field more often than at second base in September. For this he's been worth 7.8 WARP1 and is top 30 in the NL in VORP; Kent has been a below average defender and contributed just 2.3 wins to the Dodger cause.
Edge: Cubs if DeRosa is healthy, although even if they're forced to start Mike Fontenot at second, they might still have the edge (Fontenot was worth more wins that either Kent or DeWitt this year).
Shortstop: Ryan Theriot vs. Rafael Furcal/Angel Berroa
It seems like it's Furcal's job now that he's back, and why not - his OBP in 36 games is .439, compared to Berroa's .305 in 83 games. Furcal has also been the superior defender historically in spite of his occasional tendency to air-mail throws to first. As for Theriot, he's never going to be mistaken for Alex Rodriguez at the plate, what with his one home run this year, but he's been pretty good at finding a way on base in big spots, whether by slapping a single or drawing a walk, and he does walk more than he strikes out, which is certainly a nice feature. All told he's been worth about five wins to the Cubs; all the guys who have played short for the Dodgers combined add up to just slightly more, although a full season of Furcal, presumably, would have been worth more than that (I would project, but his slashes are so high in his short period of time that it's going to be inflated past what he likely would actually have contributed). At any rate, a fully healthy Furcal - if that's what he is - is probably a better player than Theriot.
Edge: Dodgers if Furcal is 100%, Cubs if he's not (and especially if he isn't playing at all).
Third Base: Aramis Ramirez vs. Casey Blake
Blake has hit 10 home runs since coming over from Cleveland, but his OBP is .313. Ramirez, meanwhile, might be the best hitter on the Cubs. The two are probably about a wash on defense, so you have to give the edge to Ramirez's offense.
Edge: Cubs.
Left Field: Alfonso Soriano vs. Manny Ramirez
Soriano, somewhat quietly, is really the engine that drives the Cubs. When he's out, you can tell; just look at the Cubs' record without him this year. He added 5.8 wins in just 108 games played; over a full season he might have added nearly 9, a pretty robust number. But Ramirez has added a mind-boggling 5.3 wins to the Dodgers in 53 games since coming over! He gives that lineup an entirely new dimension, and he's also got a ton of playoff experience.
Edge: Dodgers.
Center Field: Jim Edmonds/Reed Johnson vs. Matt Kemp
I was surprised to see Baseball Prospectus credit Kemp with 6.1 WARP1, since his OBP is only .340 and he's listed as an average fielder. I was even more surprised to then find out that combined, Edmonds and Johnson have only added 6.6 wins to the Cubs. Consider, however, that Kemp has played in almost every game for the Dodgers, while Edmonds and Johnson combined have about 25 fewer at-bats than Kemp does alone. Given the Cubs' ability to platoon, and the postseason experience Edmonds brings, I think you have to favor the Cubs here.
Edge: Cubs.
Right Field: Kosuke Fukudome vs. Andre Ethier
There's no guarantee Fukudome will even be starting, of course; if his bat stays silent, Piniella might try to play DeRosa out there (though that would depend on his injury) or even Hoffpauir (although that's a lot of defense to give up in a playoff environment). Either way, you probably have to give the offensive edge to LA; Ethier is hitting .302/.373/.507 this year, but .447/.547/.671 in September, possibly thanks to hitting in front of Ramirez, and seeing better pitches as a result, for most of the month. The Cubs have the advantage on defense, but for the moment you have to give the Dodgers the nod thanks to Ethier's hot bat.
Edge: Dodgers.
Starting Pitching: Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, Rich Harden and Ted Lilly vs. Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda and Greg Maddux
Dempster finished third in the NL in VORP, the highest among this group; next was Billingsley at seventh. Lowe was tenth, and while you have to go all the way to 23rd to hit the next Cub, Zambrano, Lilly and Harden are bunched up at 23, 24 and 28, just ahead of Kuroda at 30 and well ahead of Maddux at #80 (most of that accomplished with the Padres, of course). But Maddux might not even start; Joe Torre has suggested Lowe could come back on short rest in Game Four if the situation called for it. At any rate, this will probably be a series for people who love pitching. Certainly it was in the regular season, with both teams scoring less than three runs per game.
The opening game will match Dempster and Lowe. Dempster, famously, was 14-3 at Wrigley this year, while Lowe has been touchable on the road, his BAA rising from .206 at Chavez Ravine all the way to .292. He doesn't walk many, though, and he's a sinker-ball pitcher, both factors that will give the Cubs trouble. Lowe started twice against the Cubs this year, both times matching up with Zambrano; he got a no-decision after seven shutout innings in the Dodgers' 2-1 loss on May 28, but won the 7-3 Dodgers win in LA on June 7, though he allowed three runs in seven innings in that one. Dempster was also 1-0 with a no-decision against LA, though the Cubs won both games; his start at Wrigley was seven innings of one-run ball.
Game Two as scheduled will pit Zambrano against Billingsley. Like Lowe, Billingsley has pitched worse on the road - not surprising for pitchers in a pitcher's park - but not by much, and he's only got a couple bad starts all year. Zambrano, of course, is Zambrano; really, who has any idea what to expect out of him at this point? He might go eight innings and give up three hits, or he might get knocked out in the fourth. His biggest problem is always walks; if he can restrict those and keep himself under emotional control, he could be great. Let's not forget that he turned in a strong start on the road last year in the playoffs after sucking out loud for much of the final two months. The good news is, the Dodgers don't take a ton of walks. The bad news is they pounded 13 hits off him in his June 7 start in LA.
Game Three should match up Harden and Kuroda in Los Angeles, where Kuroda blanked the Cubs on June 6. Like Lowe, Kuroda does not issue a lot of walks (in fact, the Dodgers were second in walks allowed, which partially explains their #1 ERA); he's also pitched better at home, though like Billingsley, the split isn't all that wide. Harden is one of the most unhittable pitchers in baseball; in seven of his 12 starts for the Cubs, he's allowed no more than two hits. Two! The only problems, of course, are (1) in three of those starts, he's only gone five innings and (2) he's also got four starts with at least four walks. The piece de resistance was on September 18, when he threw 115 pitches in five innings against the Brewers, walking six and striking out seven. (I believe he also hit the bull mascot twice.) His ERA with the Cubs is 1.77, but that's only so useful if he's forcing you to call the bullpen after five innings. Hopefully he can turn in seven of similar quality in what will likely be yet another pitchers' duel. Harden has been slightly worse on the road this year, but since he's a flyball pitcher when the ball actually gets in play, starting him away from Wrigley Field probably isn't a bad thing.
Ted Lilly may be the hottest pitcher the Cubs have; he's gone 16-5 since a 1-4 start, and lowered his ERA to 4.09 after it was over 5.00 as late as June 10. He's pitched particularly well on the road of late, with his last two road starts both seeing him take no-hitters into the seventh inning (and both times at Miller Park). For the season, he's 10-4, 3.77 on the road next to 7-5, 4.50 at home, so throwing him out there on the road in a pitcher's park can't be a bad thing. Of course, he might not make a start in this series depending on how things go. As for who he would face, it's either Lowe on short rest or Maddux, who has been mediocre as a Dodger.
Edge: It's pretty even, which isn't surprising when you have the top two teams in ERA going at it. But because of the home field advantage and the way the pitching lines up with that, I'd probably give a very slight edge to the Cubs, pretty much no more edge than the home field allows for. Obviously a lot of this depends on which Zambrano shows up. A top-of-his-game Zambrano, following a good outing by Dempster, gives the Cubs a good chance of being up 2-0 when heading out west. If Zambrano drops a bomb, that pretty well changes the complexion of the series.
Middle Relief: Carlos Marmol, Jeff Samardzija and the rest vs. Joe Beimel, Jonathan Broxton, Cory Wade, Chan Ho Park and the rest
The Dodgers have more middle relievers in which I'd be willing to have confidence; the Cubs are pretty much down to two, and frankly I'm not sure I trust Samardzija all that far right now. The Cubs catch a break in that Hong-Chih Kuo, possibly the Dodgers' best reliever, won't be available, but they've got several guys with sub-3.00 ERAs. I don't even know who Piniella wants to take besides the above two since everyone else has been so lousy; I expect Howry will show up on the roster, and at least one of Marshall and Cotts. Kevin Hart has also pitched fairly well since being called back up on September 1. I've gotta think Marmol is the best of this bunch, and in fact he's fifth in baseball in WXRL, a reliever's win expectation over replacement (lineup-adjusted), adding more than five wins to the Cubs, a lot for a guy who pitches under 100 innings. But you go through six Dodgers on the list before you get to another Cub who isn't Wood, and that's Marshall at #125 in baseball. On volume, the Dodgers are better, and more equipped to handle the early departure of a starter.
Edge: Dodgers.
Closer: Kerry Wood vs. Takashi Saito
Saito was out for two months and has only had one save chance since coming back, but I'm assuming he'll be the closer in the playoffs. Edge to Wood mostly on the freshness count; Saito's stats are comparable to Wood's, with a better ERA, but the Cubs have also handed him a blown save and a loss this year in the two times he came on in either a save situation or a tie.
Slight edge: Cubs.
Put it all together: The Cubs are going to be the favorites, and they should be, but this isn't going to be a cakewalk. In the playoffs, you need good starting pitching, timely hitting, and a bit of luck. Last year the Cubs had none of that. If they want to avoid another, even more serious disappointment, things have to begin with the starters and roll from there; that's how the Red Sox and White Sox broke their droughts (the latter in particular). This should be obvious, of course, but that's what I'll be looking forward to seeing starting Wednesday. This team is the best team in the NL and it should be representing the league in the World Series if it plays up to its potential. Whether or not that happens... that's why they play the games.
Friday, September 26, 2008
Change of plans
The Cubs officially announced their playoff rotation today. Fortunately, this year the Cubs have four starters and won't have to do anything like pull Zambrano a little early in Game One to save him for Game Four. Of course, they also won't have to do that this year because Zambrano isn't starting Game One. Your planned rotation:
Game One (Wednesday): Ryan Dempster
Game Two (Thursday): Carlos Zambrano
Game Three (Saturday): Rich Harden
Game Four (Sunday): Ted Lilly
Game Five (Tuesday): Ryan Dempster
I think this works out pretty well. For one thing, it's obvious that Dempster has been the Cubs' best pitcher all season, so why not reward him? He's also got a 14-3 home record, lest we forget, so having him possibly start two games, both at home, seems like it would work out pretty well. Better still, you're starting your two ground-ball pitchers at home and your two fly-ball pitchers on the road, and "the road" is looking more and more like it's going to be pitcher's park Chavez Ravine.
I think it's time to revisit the playoff roster debate:
Starters: Dempster, Zambrano, Harden, Lilly
Relievers: Wood, Marmol, Marquis, Marshall, Howry, Samardzija, Cotts
I'm not totally sure about Marquis. Remember last year during the season-ending series in Cincinnati, when he was put in as a reliever, got shelled, and then afterwards said that he really only feels comfortable when he's starting? He's been good down the stretch this year, in defiance of his usual form, but he's right - his value is as a fifth starter who can usually give you six innings and maybe only allow three or four runs. But he often allows all those runs in one inning. I guess he could be the long-relief backup plan should anything happen with Zambrano or Harden (or, for that matter, the occasionally homer-happy Lilly), but man - if we see Marquis trotting in to save the Cubs' season in Game Three or Four, I don't think I'm going to be feeling very good. As for the rest of them, I don't really like the last three, but where else do you go? You need that second lefty in Cotts, and Howry and Samardzija, while they haven't necessarily been great, have probably been the two most effective relievers outside of the Wood-Marmol team in the last month. The only other possibility is Kevin Hart; Gaudin pitched himself out of consideration last night, and Wells and Lieber are hurt.
Eleven pitchers allows for 14 position players, which is nice. I think the debate here is about the same as the last time I talked about it:
Catchers (2): Soto, Blanco
Infielders (6): Lee, DeRosa, Theriot, Ramirez, Fontenot, Cedeno
Outfielders (4): Soriano, Edmonds, Johnson, Fukudome
Bench (2): Ward, Hoffpauir
I've been on board with taking Pie over Hoffpauir, but I was thinking about this just now and changed my mind for a couple reasons, and Hoffpauir's recent 5-for-5, two-homer night doesn't even have much to do with it.
Reason #1: Carrying three center fielders is crazy.
I mean, if you're not going to carry three catchers, there's no reason to carry three center fielders, and you've already got the Edmonds/Johnson team platooning at that spot. And let's not forget that in an absolute pinch you can switch DeRo into right (since you are carrying three guys who can play second base) and move Fukudome into center. Pie may be a better center field defender than any of them, but is it by so much that you have to have him on the team?
Reason #2: Bringing Pie over Hoffpauir basically says, "We're valuing late-inning defense and pinch-running over pinch-hitting."
If you bring Pie, he's probably your absolute last pinch-hit choice off the bench, unless you're trying to create a lefty-righty matchup. But Hoffpauir also creates that matchup, and he's a much better shot to get a hit, it seems to me. Pie can pinch-run, but so could Cedeno, Fontenot, or Marquis if it came to that. And as for late-inning center-field defense, you can replace Edmonds with Johnson if you're so worried. Johnson himself probably doesn't even need replacing.
So yeah, Ward and Hoffpauir are basically the same guy - slow-footed lefties who can play first and, if you're really desperate, an outfield corner, but who in the playoffs will only really be used for pinch-hitting anyway. And if someone gets injured, you are allowed to replace that player for the series with someone not on the 25-man (this rule only started in 2007, apparently), so it's not like you absolutely have to plan for all contingencies at the start of the series.
So... the Dodgers, probably? Unless we beat the Brewers the next two days, which isn't impossible. (Even then, the Mets would have to win their next two, and I don't know about that.) The Dodgers don't have lefty power, which is nice, but I do worry a little about their pitching, as I've said.
Game One (Wednesday): Ryan Dempster
Game Two (Thursday): Carlos Zambrano
Game Three (Saturday): Rich Harden
Game Four (Sunday): Ted Lilly
Game Five (Tuesday): Ryan Dempster
I think this works out pretty well. For one thing, it's obvious that Dempster has been the Cubs' best pitcher all season, so why not reward him? He's also got a 14-3 home record, lest we forget, so having him possibly start two games, both at home, seems like it would work out pretty well. Better still, you're starting your two ground-ball pitchers at home and your two fly-ball pitchers on the road, and "the road" is looking more and more like it's going to be pitcher's park Chavez Ravine.
I think it's time to revisit the playoff roster debate:
Starters: Dempster, Zambrano, Harden, Lilly
Relievers: Wood, Marmol, Marquis, Marshall, Howry, Samardzija, Cotts
I'm not totally sure about Marquis. Remember last year during the season-ending series in Cincinnati, when he was put in as a reliever, got shelled, and then afterwards said that he really only feels comfortable when he's starting? He's been good down the stretch this year, in defiance of his usual form, but he's right - his value is as a fifth starter who can usually give you six innings and maybe only allow three or four runs. But he often allows all those runs in one inning. I guess he could be the long-relief backup plan should anything happen with Zambrano or Harden (or, for that matter, the occasionally homer-happy Lilly), but man - if we see Marquis trotting in to save the Cubs' season in Game Three or Four, I don't think I'm going to be feeling very good. As for the rest of them, I don't really like the last three, but where else do you go? You need that second lefty in Cotts, and Howry and Samardzija, while they haven't necessarily been great, have probably been the two most effective relievers outside of the Wood-Marmol team in the last month. The only other possibility is Kevin Hart; Gaudin pitched himself out of consideration last night, and Wells and Lieber are hurt.
Eleven pitchers allows for 14 position players, which is nice. I think the debate here is about the same as the last time I talked about it:
Catchers (2): Soto, Blanco
Infielders (6): Lee, DeRosa, Theriot, Ramirez, Fontenot, Cedeno
Outfielders (4): Soriano, Edmonds, Johnson, Fukudome
Bench (2): Ward, Hoffpauir
I've been on board with taking Pie over Hoffpauir, but I was thinking about this just now and changed my mind for a couple reasons, and Hoffpauir's recent 5-for-5, two-homer night doesn't even have much to do with it.
Reason #1: Carrying three center fielders is crazy.
I mean, if you're not going to carry three catchers, there's no reason to carry three center fielders, and you've already got the Edmonds/Johnson team platooning at that spot. And let's not forget that in an absolute pinch you can switch DeRo into right (since you are carrying three guys who can play second base) and move Fukudome into center. Pie may be a better center field defender than any of them, but is it by so much that you have to have him on the team?
Reason #2: Bringing Pie over Hoffpauir basically says, "We're valuing late-inning defense and pinch-running over pinch-hitting."
If you bring Pie, he's probably your absolute last pinch-hit choice off the bench, unless you're trying to create a lefty-righty matchup. But Hoffpauir also creates that matchup, and he's a much better shot to get a hit, it seems to me. Pie can pinch-run, but so could Cedeno, Fontenot, or Marquis if it came to that. And as for late-inning center-field defense, you can replace Edmonds with Johnson if you're so worried. Johnson himself probably doesn't even need replacing.
So yeah, Ward and Hoffpauir are basically the same guy - slow-footed lefties who can play first and, if you're really desperate, an outfield corner, but who in the playoffs will only really be used for pinch-hitting anyway. And if someone gets injured, you are allowed to replace that player for the series with someone not on the 25-man (this rule only started in 2007, apparently), so it's not like you absolutely have to plan for all contingencies at the start of the series.
So... the Dodgers, probably? Unless we beat the Brewers the next two days, which isn't impossible. (Even then, the Mets would have to win their next two, and I don't know about that.) The Dodgers don't have lefty power, which is nice, but I do worry a little about their pitching, as I've said.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Strike a match
The playoffs are locked up. Home field advantage is locked up. Now, there's only two questions: can the Cubs really get to the World Series, and who are they going to have to beat to do it?
First things first: of course the Cubs can get to the World Series. They've been the best team in the NL all year and have the record to prove it. If they don't have the best top-to-bottom pitching, they're darn close, and they have the highest-scoring offense. Anything can happen in short playoff series, but it's inarguable that the Cubs can win the pennant.
But will they? To answer that, we have to look at the other NL playoff teams (or potential playoff teams) and ask ourselves how they match up with the Cubs, and what the Cubs have to do to win.
Possible Opponent #1: Mets
At the moment, this looks like the most likely option for the Division Series. After beating the Cubs tonight, the Mets have a one-game lead in the wild card over the Brewers with five games to play. Of course, the Mets have two more against the Cubs (and won't get to start Johan Santana in those games) while the Brewers are playing Pittsburgh, their personal bitches for 2008. So check back on Thursday night, because it's entirely possible the Mets won't be the wild card leaders anymore.
Pros for the Cubs: For a team that's scored 781 runs, the Mets seem to have a tendency the last couple seasons to lock up in the clutch. The Cubs shut them down at Wrigley earlier this year, although that was so long ago at this point that it's virtually meaningless. The Mets' pitching is also highly suspect once you get beyond Johan Santana, especially in the bullpen, which lacks a real closer with Billy Wagner injured and is even thinner beyond that.
Cons for the Cubs: Even ahead of the Phillies, the Mets might be the scariest offensive team in the playoffs (if they make it), with David Wright, Jose Reyes, and a suddenly alive Carlos Delgado, among others. There's also the little matter of Johan Santana, who could pitch twice in a five-game series, leaving little margin for error if the Cubs struggle to hit him as they did tonight after the first three innings.
Possible Opponent #2: Phillies
It should probably be noted that the Mets are only 1.5 back of the Phillies in the NL East right now, meaning it's not yet impossible that the Cubs could see Philadelphia in the first round. Still, an NLCS matchup seems more likely if anything.
Pros for the Cubs: Last year the Phillies were the second-hottest team in baseball going into the playoffs, and they got skunked in three straight. Of course, the team doing the skunking was the hottest team in baseball. But the Phillies are still not blessed with a ton of playoff experience - really, the bulk of their major players have just that one series to point to. The Cubs have a good deal more than that. The Phillies' starting pitching is also a bit thin beyond their top two, and while they have a lot of power, they're not really great at getting on base, often more important in the playoffs than the ability to hit home runs.
Cons for the Cubs: The Phillies went 4-3 against the Cubs this year but it could easily have been 7-0, as the Cubs only won their one game in Philly thanks to a phantom home run call and needed late comebacks against the Phillies' bullpen just to split the four-game set at Wrigley in August. Hamels and Myers are good pitchers, but the Cubs have made them look like Koufax and Drysdale, with Hamels allowing one run and six hits in fourteen innings vs. the Cubs this year and Myers is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in two starts. That could easily present problems in a short series if the Cubs can't do a better job of solving them. The Phillies' power and speed are also both liable to be problems. This is probably the one team in the NL I absolutely don't want to see, certainly not in the Division Series.
Possible Opponent #3: Dodgers
If the wild card is won by the Brewers, the Cubs won't play the wild card team; instead, they'll play the division winner with the worst record, which is going to be the team out of the West. Right now that's LA - they should lead by three games by the end of the night with just five to play, an awfully difficult lead to blow, especially when they don't play second-place Arizona.
Pros for the Cubs: The Cubs went 5-2 against the Dodgers this year, sweeping them at Wrigley Field. And aside from one bad Carlos Zambrano start, they mostly kept the Dodgers from scoring, allowing less than two runs per game in the other six contests. The Dodgers have also been pretty bad on the road this year, and of course the Cubs would have home-field.
Cons for the Cubs: The Cubs also didn't hit Dodger pitching all that well, scoring a total of 19 runs in the seven games. They were shut out by Hiroki Kuroda at Chavez Ravine, and twice needed to get into the bullpen to win, including the May 28 game at Wrigley where it was 1-0 Dodgers in the bottom of the ninth before the Cubs managed to tie the game on a sac fly and win in ten innings. Also, we can't count on the Dodgers to be a lousy offensive team anymore, given the improvement in their numbers since the addition of Manny Ramirez.
Possible Opponent #4: Diamondbacks
The chances of this look pretty slim right now, thank God.
Pros for the Cubs: The Diamondbacks stink. They're 79-78 right now!
Cons for the Cubs: Anybody who tells you they want to face Webb, Haren and Johnson to start a five-game set is crazy. It could be over before it even begins, just like last year. And just for good measure, give them Cub killer Adam Dunn. You don't know how glad I am this isn't happening.
Possible Opponent #5: Brewers
This could only happen in the NLCS, and they need to catch the Mets for the wild card to do it. But they're only a game out, hardly insurmountable with five to play.
Pros for the Cubs: The Cubs know the Brewers very well. They also seem to own them at Miller Park, making the possible 3-4-5 middle section of the NLCS not as daunting as it might be in another city. In addition, the Brewers have pretty much stunk on ice in the last month, and Sabathia seems to be wearing down, something that won't be helped by all the pitching he'll be doing on three days' rest in the next week.
Cons for the Cubs: For some reason, the Brewers seem to play almost as well at Wrigley as the Cubs do at Miller. Also, the Brewers might be able to get on a roll if they win a first-round series; not that the Cubs wouldn't be on a roll also, but with Fielder and Braun, that could certainly be dangerous. You wouldn't want to end up in a slugfest with that team. Still, I'd rather face the Brewers than the Phillies here, given the option.
So, who would you rather face? I'll take whatever I can get, of course, but I'm inclined to prefer Mets/Brewers, although that combo is really unlikely to happen since at this point it looks like an either/or as to which one gets in. So let's say Dodgers/Brewers. The Dodgers are better than they were, but they aren't great.
First things first: of course the Cubs can get to the World Series. They've been the best team in the NL all year and have the record to prove it. If they don't have the best top-to-bottom pitching, they're darn close, and they have the highest-scoring offense. Anything can happen in short playoff series, but it's inarguable that the Cubs can win the pennant.
But will they? To answer that, we have to look at the other NL playoff teams (or potential playoff teams) and ask ourselves how they match up with the Cubs, and what the Cubs have to do to win.
Possible Opponent #1: Mets
At the moment, this looks like the most likely option for the Division Series. After beating the Cubs tonight, the Mets have a one-game lead in the wild card over the Brewers with five games to play. Of course, the Mets have two more against the Cubs (and won't get to start Johan Santana in those games) while the Brewers are playing Pittsburgh, their personal bitches for 2008. So check back on Thursday night, because it's entirely possible the Mets won't be the wild card leaders anymore.
Pros for the Cubs: For a team that's scored 781 runs, the Mets seem to have a tendency the last couple seasons to lock up in the clutch. The Cubs shut them down at Wrigley earlier this year, although that was so long ago at this point that it's virtually meaningless. The Mets' pitching is also highly suspect once you get beyond Johan Santana, especially in the bullpen, which lacks a real closer with Billy Wagner injured and is even thinner beyond that.
Cons for the Cubs: Even ahead of the Phillies, the Mets might be the scariest offensive team in the playoffs (if they make it), with David Wright, Jose Reyes, and a suddenly alive Carlos Delgado, among others. There's also the little matter of Johan Santana, who could pitch twice in a five-game series, leaving little margin for error if the Cubs struggle to hit him as they did tonight after the first three innings.
Possible Opponent #2: Phillies
It should probably be noted that the Mets are only 1.5 back of the Phillies in the NL East right now, meaning it's not yet impossible that the Cubs could see Philadelphia in the first round. Still, an NLCS matchup seems more likely if anything.
Pros for the Cubs: Last year the Phillies were the second-hottest team in baseball going into the playoffs, and they got skunked in three straight. Of course, the team doing the skunking was the hottest team in baseball. But the Phillies are still not blessed with a ton of playoff experience - really, the bulk of their major players have just that one series to point to. The Cubs have a good deal more than that. The Phillies' starting pitching is also a bit thin beyond their top two, and while they have a lot of power, they're not really great at getting on base, often more important in the playoffs than the ability to hit home runs.
Cons for the Cubs: The Phillies went 4-3 against the Cubs this year but it could easily have been 7-0, as the Cubs only won their one game in Philly thanks to a phantom home run call and needed late comebacks against the Phillies' bullpen just to split the four-game set at Wrigley in August. Hamels and Myers are good pitchers, but the Cubs have made them look like Koufax and Drysdale, with Hamels allowing one run and six hits in fourteen innings vs. the Cubs this year and Myers is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in two starts. That could easily present problems in a short series if the Cubs can't do a better job of solving them. The Phillies' power and speed are also both liable to be problems. This is probably the one team in the NL I absolutely don't want to see, certainly not in the Division Series.
Possible Opponent #3: Dodgers
If the wild card is won by the Brewers, the Cubs won't play the wild card team; instead, they'll play the division winner with the worst record, which is going to be the team out of the West. Right now that's LA - they should lead by three games by the end of the night with just five to play, an awfully difficult lead to blow, especially when they don't play second-place Arizona.
Pros for the Cubs: The Cubs went 5-2 against the Dodgers this year, sweeping them at Wrigley Field. And aside from one bad Carlos Zambrano start, they mostly kept the Dodgers from scoring, allowing less than two runs per game in the other six contests. The Dodgers have also been pretty bad on the road this year, and of course the Cubs would have home-field.
Cons for the Cubs: The Cubs also didn't hit Dodger pitching all that well, scoring a total of 19 runs in the seven games. They were shut out by Hiroki Kuroda at Chavez Ravine, and twice needed to get into the bullpen to win, including the May 28 game at Wrigley where it was 1-0 Dodgers in the bottom of the ninth before the Cubs managed to tie the game on a sac fly and win in ten innings. Also, we can't count on the Dodgers to be a lousy offensive team anymore, given the improvement in their numbers since the addition of Manny Ramirez.
Possible Opponent #4: Diamondbacks
The chances of this look pretty slim right now, thank God.
Pros for the Cubs: The Diamondbacks stink. They're 79-78 right now!
Cons for the Cubs: Anybody who tells you they want to face Webb, Haren and Johnson to start a five-game set is crazy. It could be over before it even begins, just like last year. And just for good measure, give them Cub killer Adam Dunn. You don't know how glad I am this isn't happening.
Possible Opponent #5: Brewers
This could only happen in the NLCS, and they need to catch the Mets for the wild card to do it. But they're only a game out, hardly insurmountable with five to play.
Pros for the Cubs: The Cubs know the Brewers very well. They also seem to own them at Miller Park, making the possible 3-4-5 middle section of the NLCS not as daunting as it might be in another city. In addition, the Brewers have pretty much stunk on ice in the last month, and Sabathia seems to be wearing down, something that won't be helped by all the pitching he'll be doing on three days' rest in the next week.
Cons for the Cubs: For some reason, the Brewers seem to play almost as well at Wrigley as the Cubs do at Miller. Also, the Brewers might be able to get on a roll if they win a first-round series; not that the Cubs wouldn't be on a roll also, but with Fielder and Braun, that could certainly be dangerous. You wouldn't want to end up in a slugfest with that team. Still, I'd rather face the Brewers than the Phillies here, given the option.
So, who would you rather face? I'll take whatever I can get, of course, but I'm inclined to prefer Mets/Brewers, although that combo is really unlikely to happen since at this point it looks like an either/or as to which one gets in. So let's say Dodgers/Brewers. The Dodgers are better than they were, but they aren't great.
Sunday, September 21, 2008
Magic number: zero
Today I got a new cable box for my HDTV, which unfortunately I didn't get working until the fourth inning of the game, but I still got to see the winning runs (gotta love that the eventual winning run was a well-executed suicide squeeze by Lilly) and, of course, Marmol and Wood closing the door in the eighth and ninth. (The Glaus home run was depressing and utterly predictable - like with most of the home runs Lilly gives up, you could see it coming a mile away - but fortunately it ended up not mattering.)
With the division wrapped up, there are now a few things to concentrate on. In order:
1) Wrapping up the best record in the league (I believe the magic number for this is 3)
2) Being able to set the rotation for the playoffs
3) Determining the playoff roster
#1, while not set in stone, seems like all but a foregone conclusion. The Cubs have eight games left, meaning a simple 3-5 record in that span would be enough to clinch the league's best record, and that's if the Phillies don't lose another game, which they almost certainly will.
#2 has some bearing on #1, of course, but I'm not sure that the rotation is going to need much setting. Looking at the current lineup of probables, here's how the next eight games would be started: Dempster, Marquis, Harden, Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster, Marquis, Harden. The last game happens on Sunday, September 28, and the first game of the NLDS is three days, on Wednesday, October 1. If you assume Zambrano starts that one, that means he'll have had fully six days of rest before it, and I'm going to guess he won't be throwing a ton of pitches against the Mets this Wednesday. Assuming Dempster starts Game Two, he'll have had five days of rest, and if Lilly is your Game Three guy, he gets the nod on a full eight days off. Then, if needed, Harden goes on six days' rest (and probably after a kid-gloves outing on the final day of the regular season, if he even goes then; given how well he's pitched on long rest I might give Marshall a start in that spot to save Harden up) and Zambrano comes back for Game Five. And if they do make the NLCS, I'm frankly fine with pretty much any order. Obviously it'd be nice if you could get there in four games or less, enabling Zambrano and Dempster to pitch four of a possible seven games in the NLCS. But there's no reason to get greedy.
#3: I'm assuming the postseason roster is going to consist of 11 pitchers and 14 position players, at least for the first round (if you're not carrying five starters, there's no reason to carry 12 pitchers). Here's my vote:
Starters: Zambrano, Dempster, Lilly, Harden
Marquis has been surprisingly competent in the second half this year, effectively reversing his usual trend. He's got a 3.38 ERA in September (albeit in just 18.2 innings), and in his last eight starts, dating to August 1, he hasn't given up more than 4 runs (and then just twice) and has four quality starts in the group. But with all that said, there's really no need to have five starters for the Division Series. Maybe you could bring him back for the NLCS, if the Cubs get that far.
Relievers: Wood, Marmol, Cotts, Howry, Samardzija, Marshall, (Gaudin, Lieber or Wells)
The first six are pretty obvious. Wood and Marmol are the best the Cubs have, and Samardzija has tailed off a bit, but he's still a better option than the other available ones. Cotts and Marshall are your lefties (and of course Marshall can throw long innings in an absolute pinch), and Howry... well, he's a veteran. And actually, aside from a real stinkbomb four-run, no-out appearance on September 2 at Houston, he hasn't given up a run since August 22 and has allowed just six hits in eight other innings in that time. Okay, only eight innings, but he hasn't looked this good since May. As for the last slot, I'm not sure at the moment about the injury status of Gaudin and Lieber right now. I'd take Gaudin if all were healthy. If Gaudin and Lieber are both question marks, Randy Wells has looked pretty good in a couple outings so maybe you go that direction. Wuertz is about the only other option but I think it's fair to say Piniella isn't exactly crazy about him (and he gave up three of the runs in that ridiculous 14-9 win over the Reds).
Catchers: Soto, Blanco
Duh.
Infield: Lee, DeRosa, Theriot, Ramirez, Fontenot, Cedeno, Ward
No hard choices here.
Outfield: Soriano, Edmonds, Johnson, Fukudome, (Hoffpauir or Pie)
The only real question here is whether you value Hoffpauir's bat or Pie's value as a pinch-runner and defensive replacement. The latter might be more important in the playoffs (and Pie has shown the ability to get a hit on occasion anyway, and he's also left-handed), so I might go with Pie here, especially since Hoffpauir's defensive value is pretty much nil.
Looking at that lineup, it's almost funny how there's no real difficult decision to be made. You'll probably live with any of the back-end relief pitchers, and Hoffpauir vs. Pie is probably a tossup as far as how much value either will give you, albeit maybe in different ways. If Marquis isn't on the roster, you may prefer Pie to pinch-run for Ward in close spots, of which there will assuredly be some.
There's still some baseball to be played, of course, but we can't avoid it now: the Cubs are in the playoffs.
With the division wrapped up, there are now a few things to concentrate on. In order:
1) Wrapping up the best record in the league (I believe the magic number for this is 3)
2) Being able to set the rotation for the playoffs
3) Determining the playoff roster
#1, while not set in stone, seems like all but a foregone conclusion. The Cubs have eight games left, meaning a simple 3-5 record in that span would be enough to clinch the league's best record, and that's if the Phillies don't lose another game, which they almost certainly will.
#2 has some bearing on #1, of course, but I'm not sure that the rotation is going to need much setting. Looking at the current lineup of probables, here's how the next eight games would be started: Dempster, Marquis, Harden, Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster, Marquis, Harden. The last game happens on Sunday, September 28, and the first game of the NLDS is three days, on Wednesday, October 1. If you assume Zambrano starts that one, that means he'll have had fully six days of rest before it, and I'm going to guess he won't be throwing a ton of pitches against the Mets this Wednesday. Assuming Dempster starts Game Two, he'll have had five days of rest, and if Lilly is your Game Three guy, he gets the nod on a full eight days off. Then, if needed, Harden goes on six days' rest (and probably after a kid-gloves outing on the final day of the regular season, if he even goes then; given how well he's pitched on long rest I might give Marshall a start in that spot to save Harden up) and Zambrano comes back for Game Five. And if they do make the NLCS, I'm frankly fine with pretty much any order. Obviously it'd be nice if you could get there in four games or less, enabling Zambrano and Dempster to pitch four of a possible seven games in the NLCS. But there's no reason to get greedy.
#3: I'm assuming the postseason roster is going to consist of 11 pitchers and 14 position players, at least for the first round (if you're not carrying five starters, there's no reason to carry 12 pitchers). Here's my vote:
Starters: Zambrano, Dempster, Lilly, Harden
Marquis has been surprisingly competent in the second half this year, effectively reversing his usual trend. He's got a 3.38 ERA in September (albeit in just 18.2 innings), and in his last eight starts, dating to August 1, he hasn't given up more than 4 runs (and then just twice) and has four quality starts in the group. But with all that said, there's really no need to have five starters for the Division Series. Maybe you could bring him back for the NLCS, if the Cubs get that far.
Relievers: Wood, Marmol, Cotts, Howry, Samardzija, Marshall, (Gaudin, Lieber or Wells)
The first six are pretty obvious. Wood and Marmol are the best the Cubs have, and Samardzija has tailed off a bit, but he's still a better option than the other available ones. Cotts and Marshall are your lefties (and of course Marshall can throw long innings in an absolute pinch), and Howry... well, he's a veteran. And actually, aside from a real stinkbomb four-run, no-out appearance on September 2 at Houston, he hasn't given up a run since August 22 and has allowed just six hits in eight other innings in that time. Okay, only eight innings, but he hasn't looked this good since May. As for the last slot, I'm not sure at the moment about the injury status of Gaudin and Lieber right now. I'd take Gaudin if all were healthy. If Gaudin and Lieber are both question marks, Randy Wells has looked pretty good in a couple outings so maybe you go that direction. Wuertz is about the only other option but I think it's fair to say Piniella isn't exactly crazy about him (and he gave up three of the runs in that ridiculous 14-9 win over the Reds).
Catchers: Soto, Blanco
Duh.
Infield: Lee, DeRosa, Theriot, Ramirez, Fontenot, Cedeno, Ward
No hard choices here.
Outfield: Soriano, Edmonds, Johnson, Fukudome, (Hoffpauir or Pie)
The only real question here is whether you value Hoffpauir's bat or Pie's value as a pinch-runner and defensive replacement. The latter might be more important in the playoffs (and Pie has shown the ability to get a hit on occasion anyway, and he's also left-handed), so I might go with Pie here, especially since Hoffpauir's defensive value is pretty much nil.
Looking at that lineup, it's almost funny how there's no real difficult decision to be made. You'll probably live with any of the back-end relief pitchers, and Hoffpauir vs. Pie is probably a tossup as far as how much value either will give you, albeit maybe in different ways. If Marquis isn't on the roster, you may prefer Pie to pinch-run for Ward in close spots, of which there will assuredly be some.
There's still some baseball to be played, of course, but we can't avoid it now: the Cubs are in the playoffs.
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