Tuesday, September 04, 2007

Zambarrassing

After dropping his fifth consecutive decision - a career worst - and receiving boos from the home fans at Wrigley Field, Carlos Zambrano said the following:

"I don't understand why the fans were booing at me. I can't understand that. They showed me today they just care about them. That's no fair. Because when you are struggling, that's when you want to feel the support of the fans."

Really, Carlos? Really? You don't understand why? Well, let me go over a few reasons for you:

1) You're the ace of this team and you've lost five straight decisions, at a time when literally every win is absolutely vital.

2) You just signed a gargantuan new contract, the richest per-year multi-year deal a pitcher has ever signed. Do you think you've been earning it so far?

3) Your ERA has gone up nearly a full run since hitting its season low of 3.42 on August 3. In June and July you went 9-3 with an ERA under 2.00 and ten starts out of twelve in which you gave up two earned runs or fewer. In August? Your ERA was 7.06, more than a run worse than it was even in April. On August 3 you walked seven batters in five innings. On August 14 you gave up 13 hits in seven innings against the Reds. You walked five more guys yesterday and gave up eight earned runs. Do you know how long it's been since you gave up eight earned runs? I'll give you a hint - June 22, 2005.

I've spent time in this space defending Zambrano - see below - but as the losses pile up and he keeps looking bad, we have to wonder what's wrong, because something has to be. This guy is prone to having blow-up starts every now and then, but not five in a row. (He bounced back from that 8 ER start in June of '05 with eight shutout innings in his next outing. Does anyone think that's going to happen this time?) So what's wrong?

Injury. I don't know that I buy this one. Injury was the speculation as to why Z was struggling in the first two months, and then he caught fire in June and July. Is it really likely that he covered up an injury for two months, then had it heal, then re-aggravated it but continued to cover it up? I'm sure he doesn't want to be seen as a quitter or the kind of person who signs a big deal and then goes on the DL, but is there anyone out there who would rather see him pitch through an injury if he's going to look like this? If he is injured, he really needs to let someone know. But I just don't think that's it.

Pressure. For what it's worth, this isn't the first time Zambrano has pitched in this situation - in 2004, the Cubs were in a fight for the wild card that they ended up losing, finishing three games back of Houston - but it's his first time doing so as the unquestioned ace, the guy everyone is expecting to come through. Z was the best pitcher on the '04 Cubs - going 16-8 with a 2.75 ERA - but with Maddux, Wood and Prior on the roster, people didn't necessarily look to him first (although Wood and Prior combined for just 259 innings that year). Now? There's no doubt who the ace is supposed to be, but over the last month it's been... I don't know, Jason Marquis? That's not a playoff team. I hope it's not this, because if it is, that suggests that Zambrano won't come through in a tight race until the Cubs sign Johan Santana.

Just plain mental. Zambrano has always been, to put it nicely, mercurial. But he's also been able to use his emotions to his advantage, and recently he hasn't been managing that. Has he lost confidence in himself somehow? Is he just struggling through a rough patch that almost all pitchers hit at some point in their careers? Whatever the reason, he needs to get his head screwed back on the way he did at the start of June. I'm not necessarily advocating a dugout brawl with Jason Kendall, but if even Henry Blanco can't get a good start out of Zambrano, the problem ain't with the catchers. Zambrano pointed to his head after being booed yesterday - the implication, I think, was that he would remember the booing. Let's hope he does. This guy seems to need something to get him motivated again, and if the money isn't going to do it, maybe being reviled by the home fans is just the ticket.

I understand Zambrano's point to a certain degree - I'm sure no baseball player wants to struggle, especially like Z has been doing, and to get booed on top of that must really suck. On the other hand, all that money ought to dampen some of the pain. When you're making that much and not performing, I don't think you can really be too upset by booing, especially in a pennant race. It's just too bad that fixing this won't be as easy as simply buying his control back.

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