Breaking the bank

Finally allowed to open the coffers again, the Cubs signed Carlos Zambrano to a five-year, $91.5 million extension. Was he worth it? Well, Zambrano has a career ERA of 3.37, which ranks him tenth among eligible active pitchers (min 1000 IP) and fifth among eligible active pitchers under the age of 30. (The four ahead of him are Oswalt, Santana, Webb, and Peavy. The first two both make eight figures; Peavy and Webb are enormous bargains at the moment, but probably won't be for more than another year or two.) He's also had good luck with injuries so far; he's made 30+ starts and thrown 200+ innings in each of his four full years with the Cubs, and is on pace to do so again this year. (Some would probably argue that this, along with his tendency to throw an awful lot of pitches - his count has increased from 3,407 in 2003 to 3,626 in 2006, and this year he's averaging a career high 4.01 pitches per plate appearance - is more of a warning sign than a good thing. But I don't know. Some guys actually are that durable. Clemens' career P/PA is 3.92, a hair above Zambrano's.)

There are concerns, sure. He's got a 3.86 ERA right now, which would be his career worst (not including his rookie year of 2001 in which he threw a total of 7.2 innings). Two more home runs allowed sets his single-season mark; he'll likely approach a career-worst hits allowed total; he's on pace for a career low in Ks. But with that said, his career ERA is 3.37. It's pretty darn great. And he has a career winning percentage of .605 - I know that wins aren't the best way to measure a pitcher (in fact they can be a pretty terrible way), but given that Z hasn't pitched for a single 90-win team, that's not bad. In fact, it puts him in the top ten among active pitchers under age 35. His 78 total wins are already top 60 among active players and only four guys who will still be under 30 by next season have more. None of them is as young as Zambrano.

Of course, career stats only mean so much, especially in the world of the starting pitcher. A guy who looks like a sure thing one year can flame out the next - Mark Prior, anyone? Zambrano has a good pedigree but he's still prone to maddening temper tantrums, loss of focus after a couple bad at-bats, and a general overuse of emotion that starts off cute and gets more and more tiresome every time it results in a meltdown on the mound. Still, Zambrano's stats this year in the control department aren't markedly different from those in years past - he's not going to walk as many guys as last year, for example, and his percentage of strikes is consistent with his career averages at 61%. (He's also throwing more first-pitch strikes than ever before, at 58%.) 5% of batters faced saw a 3-0 count, also about average for his career. Even where his numbers are worse, they're certainly not orders of magnitude worse. The guy will have 15+ wins barring something insane happening and his ERA will be under 4.00 unless he goes into the tank. Is a guy who gets you 15-12, 3.80 an $18 million pitcher? Worthy of the highest average salary for a multi-year-contract pitcher in history?

On the face of it, no. But again, you have to consider a couple other factors.

1) The market for Zambrano after the season.
As noted by Jayson Stark here, we are heading into one of the most barren free agency periods for starters in recent memory. The most intriguing commodities are a 41-year-old Curt Schilling and a bunch of guys with career ERAs that look like Olympic figure skating scores. Given the money thrown at Barry Zito last year - and Zito's subsequent failure to earn it - it's hard to believe that someone wouldn't have offered Zambrano nine figures on the open market, especially with teams like the Mets and Yankees, and the deep pockets found there, still struggling to put together strong top-to-bottom rotations to match their fantasy-team lineups.

2) Again, the career numbers.
Even if Zambrano's 2007 numbers aren't going to blow anyone's mind, he doesn't even turn 27 until next June, and yet he has more than 75 wins, a sub-3.50 ERA, 1000 career strikeouts and a winning percentage over .600. All other players under 30 who fit these criteria please step forward: hi, Johan. And hi, Roy, but you'll have to step back in a week when you turn 30. Anyone else? No? I realize this is more than a bit gerrymandered, and Jake Peavy is currently filling out his application form, and two of the categories are more team-dependent. Still, you get the general idea - Zambrano is pretty high up there in terms of career success among still-young starting pitchers, and his durability thus far only bolsters the idea that he's worth a long-term deal. And maybe the stability will help him get his head on just a little straighter. (Maybe?)

So I think we can stop with the doom-and-gloom just because he's had a few iffy starts ever since the tear through June and July. In particular, my dad called me today and said "I want to go on record that signing Zambrano was what destroyed this franchise!" Because of one loss in which Zambrano had a mediocre outing and got no run support. I would submit this as proof that following the Cubs for decades of futility is enough to make anyone crazy. I overreact to individual games as much as anyone, but let's try to think big picture here - the Cubs are still contenders this year and, unless the new owner is Carl Pohlad, probably have the money to be for the foreseeable future as long as the management is smart. There are several good-to-great position players locked up to long term deals and the youth movement has been filling in the gaps pretty nicely. All told, I'm not unhappy with the current direction, which is probably more than I've been able to say about the Cubs for a while now.

And hey - the Craig Monroe era is upon us!