You can't spell Podsednik without "P.O.S."

Two victories in Colorado - nice start. How about a big four-game sweep? (Or at least win three. Nothing worse than starting a series 2-0 and splitting it.) But I was a little disappointed with some news I heard yesterday. I recognize that Alfonso Soriano's loss has got the Cubs scrambling a bit. But putting in a waiver claim on Scott Podsednik? Sure, they both play left field and they're both leadoff hitters, and they both have stolen 40 bases in a season. There are a few differences, however:

Alfonso Soriano, 2007 OBP: .336
Scott Podsednik, 2007 OBP: .328

That's not so bad, I guess...

Alfonso Soriano, 2007 SLG: .511
Scott Podsednik: 2007 SLG: .377

Ah yes.

Podsednik's OBP is well below league average, which is kind of terrible for a leadoff hitter. It's one thing if you're Soriano and can knock the ball out of the park; Podsednik can't do that - he's hit fewer home runs in the last four seasons combined than Soriano has this year alone - and he doesn't get on base. The amazing thing is that he gets so much of the credit for the White Sox's 2005 title run (mostly, I think, for his walkoff home run in Game 2 of the World Series). He got MVP votes that year - 15, but still - MVP votes! I think it was that big .700 OPS that put him over the top.

The hilarious thing is that Scott Podsednik was traded, pretty much straight up, for Carlos Lee. I will grant you that Carlos Lee is not going to steal a lot of bases (Podsednik had stolen 70 in 2004 just before the trade; he also had a .313 OBP). In 2004 Carlos Lee was 28 - he hit 31 home runs, hit .305 with a .366 OBP, and then was traded for a guy who'd hit .244 with a .313 OBP. But Podsednik could steal bases for you - at a 72% clip in 2005, below the level at which Baseball Prospectus found you're better off not even trying to steal. Ken Williams is a GENIUS.

Actual Williams quote at the time: "As we stated this October, we wanted to make a strong effort this offseason to improve our pitching and defense. ... Our goal was to field a team that is more speed-oriented and offers a more consistent run-scoring attack. Scott is exactly that type of offensive player."

(Postscript: the White Sox scored 865 runs in 2004, third best in the AL. In 2005 they scored 741 runs, ninth best. But you're right, Ken - a more consistent run-scoring attack. In 2005 your team consistently scored fewer runs than it had the year before, because you traded one of your best offensive players for a light-hitting guy who was kind of fast but also got thrown out a lot. In a related story, the team ERA dropped from 4.91 to 3.61 in the same span, and then the Sox won the World Series because, if you believe Ozzie Guillen, they were so good at bunting runners over. Hint as to what actually happened: Ozzie Guillen is an idiot.)

(Post-postscript: Carlos Lee has hit 93 home runs since being traded with an OBP around his career average of .342. He's averaged more than 6 runs created per 27 outs made. Scott Podsednik has hit 4 home runs with an OBP of about .330 and fewer than 4 runs created per 27 outs made. No, seriously, what a fucking awesome trade. I know someone is going to come along and say that since they won the World Series after the trade there must be a correlation, but you know what? No. No there was not. The correlation is they scored 124 fewer runs in 2005 and that managed not to matter because their pitching was insane. Unless Podsednik taught the White Sox staff how to throw a spitball and not get caught, he had literally no positive impact on the 2005 White Sox that Carlos Lee would not have had and then some. And if that is what happened, what's his fucking excuse for the last two years?)

All this is kind of a long and satisfyingly Williams/Guillen-deflating way of saying that I think the Cubs can do just fine without Scott Podsednik, thank you. Matt Murton this year? OBP ten points higher than Scott Podsednik's. Four times as many home runs (in roughly the same number of PAs). He does have fewer stolen bases. I'll give you that one. But the Cubs have a Podsednik-like leadoff guy already to fill Soriano's void - Ryan Theriot (.353 OBP, 20 steals to just 4 CS - he's like Podsednik but good!).

Don't get me wrong. I don't mind seeing the Cubs put in waiver claims on principle; it's good that they don't just want to sit around feeling sorry for themselves. But let's not make any panic moves here. Unless Podsednik suddenly recaptures his 2003 form - the only year in which he was ever really that good - it's a bad idea to pick him up. And remember what happened last time we signed a speedy but light-hitting outfielder based on his 2003 season? I don't care what happened in 2005, Podsednik is not some sort of good luck charm. Hendry would do well to remember that.