And then there were none

The magic number is zero. The Cubs are your 2007 NL Central champions. From a low point of nine games under .500 on June 2, and 8.5 games back of the Brewers as late as June 23, the Cubs crawled out of the abyss, going 23-10 in the next 33 games to reach a tie for first. All told, the Cubs are 50-37 since that time, and are three games up with two to play. (Obviously, it's helped that the Brewers are 38-48 since taking that lead.) Whatever the reason, it's all over now - the Cubs are in the playoffs and for just the third time in memory (I was too young for 1984 and I simply don't have any recollection of 1989), I get to watch October baseball and do something besides root against the Yankees. Even better, I won't have to watch the Cubs play the Braves this time.

The other NL playoff spots look like they're going to belong to Arizona, San Diego, and Philadelphia, and the Cubs would get the West winner in that scenario, which is currently Arizona and probably will be Arizona. With that in mind, let's examine the upcoming Cubs-D'Backs NLDS and see what we think might happen.

The Diamondbacks are, right now, 90-70 with two games against the Rockies to play. They are the only 90-win team in the NL (though the Padres and Phillies are both still capable of getting there) and the only 50-home-win team in the NL (though the Brewers are still capable of getting there). All this and the D'Backs have been outscored this season, 717-708 through 160 games. (The Mariners are the only other team over .500 to have been outscored.) What this says is that the Diamondbacks win a lot of close games. A lot of them. In fact, they're 32-19 in one-run games. (The Cubs famously started this season with a horrible one-run-game record. They've crawled their way back to 23-22 in such contests, but still: edge, D'Backs.) The Diamondbacks do not want to get into a slugfest, ever. They're 20-25 in games decided by five runs or more; the Cubs are 26-17. The Diamondbacks' team BA is .251 (15th in the NL); team OBP is .321 (14th). The team ERA of 4.11, by comparison, is third.

Head to Head
The D'Backs won this season's series, 4-2, taking two out of three at both Wrigley and Chase Field. The games were pretty close. In the Wrigley series, the Cubs hit Brandon Webb - easily Arizona's best starter - in the first game, winning 6-2, but couldn't muster much offense in the next two games, losing 3-2 and 3-0. In Arizona, the Cubs also won the first game 6-2 behind a great start from Sean Marshall (who allowed just two hits in six innings), then dropped 3-1 and 5-4 decisions. In other words, the season series was really pretty close, with the Cubs at least having chances in all four games they lost.

By Position

Catcher: Lou Piniella doesn't seem totally sure which catcher he's going to go with. Geovany Soto has hit since coming back up and is a solid defender, while Jason Kendall brings the experience of a canny veteran but not a whole lot else at the moment. I expect both catchers to be on the playoff roster and possibly to get mixed around if one or the other fails to hit, though I think Lou wants to find one he can ride through the playoffs as soon as possible. The Diamondbacks are caught primarily by Chris Snyder, who has a pretty average stick but has been great in the field, making just one error this year and throwing out more than a third of attempted base-stealers. Aside from Soriano and Theriot, the Cubs don't run much, so this may not be much of an issue. If Kendall starts, however, look for the D'Backs to try and press their advantage in this area.
EDGE: D'Backs if Kendall starts, push if Soto starts

First Base: Derrek Lee's power has been down this year, but he's still managed to hit well over .300 and hit a lot of doubles. Plus, despite a shaky spell down the stretch, he's a great defensive first baseman, which has helped during the Cubs' infield musical chairs this season. Conor Jackson has had a decent season for Arizona, hitting .282 with 15 home runs, but for a first baseman that's not terribly impressive.
EDGE: Cubs

Second Base: Mark DeRosa's contract was widely derided when he was signed in the offseason, but it's worked out pretty well - DeRosa has played several positions, including filling in admirably at third during Aramis Ramirez's injuries, and he's hitting almost .300. Arizona's 2B is manned by journeyman Augie Ojeda, spelled by rookie Emilio Bonifacio. Starter Orlando Hudson had season-ending thumb surgery in mid-September.
EDGE: Cubs

Shortstop: It's been a streaky season for Ryan Theriot; at one point hitting near .300, he's slumped to .269 with some rough play down the stretch. Recently he was demoted to hitting 8th in the lineup. He still brings speed to the team (28 stolen bases to just 4 CS) and has played fine in the field. Arizona's Stephen Drew hits just .240, but with 12 home runs he's got a little more pop than Theriot does. He's been a little worse in the field error-wise, but he probably has a little more range.
EDGE: Push

Third Base: Arizona's intended starter Chad Tracy had his season ended by injury, forcing AA call-up Mark Reynolds to fill in. Reynolds has hit pretty well since coming up in May, hitting .283 with 17 home runs. Aramis Ramirez, of course, has cracked the 100-RBI plateau and has 26 home runs, slugging .552. Reynolds has also found the going a little rough in the field, making 10 errors in 219 chances; Ramirez has 10 in 353.
EDGE: Cubs

Left Field: Eric Byrnes has been a revelation for Arizona this year, hitting 21 home runs, scoring 100 runs, and stealing 50 bases. He doesn't have Alfonso Soriano's power, but he has at least as much speed (and runs more, certainly) and is maybe the one guy on Arizona you definitely want to keep off the basepaths. Soriano has 19 assists this year; Byrnes has 9 in left, which still suggests a decent arm. Aside from his SB stats, though, Byrnes has tailed off a bit in the second half, hitting just .262 since the break (perhaps worn out from all those All-Star Game promos he appeared in for Fox). Soriano's second half has been slower too, but he's coming around in crunch time, hitting 13 home runs in September with an OPS well over 1.000.
EDGE: Cubs (slight)

Center Field: Chris Young, the leadoff hitter who makes Soriano look like Ichiro. I know studies have shown that batting order is a bit overrated, but do you think there's any chance that some of the D'Backs' run-scoring issues can be chalked up to the fact that their leadoff hitter has an OBP below .300? 74 players qualify for the NL batting title this year, and of those 74, Chris Young ranks 71st in OBP, getting on at a ludicrously bad .294 clip, forty points lower than Soriano (whose OBP is already not very good for a leadoff hitter). Still, Young hits first for the same reason Soriano does - he's got 32 home runs this year and is 27/6 at base-stealing. He's not always going to hit (.235), but nearly a quarter of his hits leave the premises, meaning he, like Soriano, is capable of providing instant offense. Meanwhile, the Cubs' center field is likely to be manned by Jacque Jones, who despite turning it on to the tune of .349 in August and .301 in September, is having a pretty lousy year and is as likely to have an ugly-looking strikeout in a big spot as anyone in baseball. (It's possible Craig Monroe could start in center against a left-handed pitcher.)
EDGE: D'Backs

Right Field: This spot has shifted around for the Cubs, but it will likely be filled by Cliff Floyd, with Matt Murton or possibly Monroe getting the start against a left-hander. Floyd has the power for a 30-homer season (he has two), but he's hit just 9 this year, his lowest total since he had six in 61 games for the 1997 Marlins. Floyd has hit four of those homers in September, though, and he's good at taking a walk. Arizona will counter with Justin Upton, the 2o-year-old future star called up in August. Upton has loads of talent, but he hasn't hit just yet, with a .226 average in 41 games.
EDGE: Cubs

Starting pitching: The Diamondbacks probably have the best starter in this series in Brandon Webb, but despite his 3.01 ERA and long scoreless-innings streak, he's just 18-10. Part of that's because he doesn't get a ton of run support, but he's also a feast-or-famine kind of guy - in his 18 wins, he has an ERA of 1.28, but in ten losses his ERA is nearly six. Still, he's probably the best pitcher in the NL, and he's certainly no less consistent than Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano, whose ERA is 1.53 in wins but 7.75 in losses. Both pitched last night, meaning they're on a collision course for Game One of this series, which is likely to be required viewing for anyone who likes pitching.

Beyond the aces, both staffs have been a little better than average but not much more. Ted Lilly has been something of a secondary ace for the Cubs, his 3.86 ERA leading the team and his 15 wins second. (He'll probably have his scheduled Sunday start skipped so he's ready for Game Two.) All told, the Cubs' top four - Zambrano, Lilly, Hill and Marquis - have an ERA of 4.10, while Arizona's top four - Webb, Livan Hernandez, Micah Owings and Doug Davis - have an ERA of 4.06. On the whole I think I'd call it even, but I'll give Arizona a slight edge because we can't be sure that we're going to get "Good Zambrano" for the entire series.
EDGE: D'Backs (slight)

Relief pitching: Arizona has a big edge in the closer department - Jose Valverde has 47 saves and a 1.12 WHIP, though he has blown seven. Ryan Dempster has only blown three saves (while recording 28), but he's given up at least one earned run in six of his last eight appearances, and he seems incredibly uncomfortable in non-save situations. The rest of the Cubs bullpen has been pretty solid - Howry, Wuertz, Wood, and Eyre have all been pretty good the last month or two, and Marmol has been lights-out all year, allowing just 11 earned runs in more than 68 innings (his ERA+ is 316) while striking out 95. I would like the Cubs' chances in any game where they can get to the seventh with a lead. Of course, Arizona's bullpen has been strong as well - Tony Pena, Brandon Lyon, Doug Slaten and erstwhile Cub Juan Cruz all have ERA+s of at least 140.
EDGE: D'Backs

Bench: Both benches feature two professional hitters - Tony Clark and Jeff Cirillo in Arizona, Daryle Ward and Craig Monroe for the Cubs - and a bunch of fairly young players. Slight edge to the D'Backs here because Clark has the most power in that group and Monroe has looked lost at the plate, but I'd take Ward if I needed a bench player on either team to get a hit.
EDGE: D'Backs (slight)

Manager: Given the rather insane youth of Bob Melvin's team - average age 26.6 - he's done a heck of a job coaxing 90 wins out of them while other youth movement teams like the Marlins and Pirates slumped to 90 losses. It's easy to argue that Lou Piniella has underachieved given the Cubs' payroll and the fact that they'll finish with half a dozen or so fewer wins than Arizona, but he's nevertheless done a solid job turning the team around after it nearly imploded in May and most of the calls he's made down the stretch have turned out to be the right ones. He's also got a World Series ring, which Melvin does not.
EDGE: Cubs (slight)

Experience: The Cubs definitely win on experience - six of Arizona's eight starting position players are 26 or younger, and nearly all of their playoff experience is accounted for by Livan Hernandez, who hasn't pitched a playoff game since getting shelled by Anaheim in the 2002 World Series. The Cubs have less playoff experience than some teams, but Lee, Monroe, Marquis, Floyd, Eyre and Soriano have played in the World Series, while Ramirez, DeRosa, Kendall, Wood and Jones also have LCS experience. In fact, while Eric Byrnes is the only starting position player for Arizona to have playoff experience, the Cubs feature only Ryan Theriot without any. Experience isn't everything, of course, but it's nice to have.
EDGE: Cubs (big)

So there you go. I tend to be conservative/pessimistic, so I'm going to refrain from making a pick, because I'd be too nervous picking the Cubs to win but too guilty picking them to lose. One way or the other I think it should be a pretty interesting series, going four or five, and I'll be doing my best to watch every pitch of every game, just like I did in 2003. When the Cubs are in the playoffs, you've gotta savor it. Let's hope we all get to savor it for the full extra month.