Thursday, April 20, 2006

It figures.

Call it "Cubbies' Law": Anything that can go wrong for the Cubs, will go wrong for the Cubs. Today we had the most recent and one of the best examples to date of this phenomenon: Derrek Lee has Rafael Furcal run into him at first during a game and ends up breaking two bones in his wrist. Lee's out at least 8-10 weeks. The Cubs' season? Likely out with him.

This phenomenon most recently reared its head in 2003, of course - Mark Prior collided with Marcus Giles on the basepaths and missed nearly a month during a key part of the season (July into August). Of course, Prior came back in August and went 10-1 with an ERA around 2.00 in his last 11 starts. Cubbies' Law was saving its coup de grace that season, of course - it waited for That Game, to borrow Bill Simmons' term for another disastrous Game Six.

We can't allow ourselves to wallow in misery, however. Prior, Wood and Miller are supposedly almost back (another couple weeks), and if they play well this team could at least hold the fort down until the All-Star break. Remember, the 2003 Cubs were 46-46 when Prior went down in July, and they still won the division. Cautious optimism? Reckless optimism? Outright stupidity?

The question is this: with whom do you replace Lee? It's probably too early to swing any kind of major trade, if indeed such a trade is to be had, and anyway it's not like Lee's dead - there's no reason to mortgage the future in any way for a two-month rental who you don't plan to start for the whole season. Various minor leaguers have been bandied about, but they're not exactly big names - Ryan Theriot? Brandon Sing? Michael Restovich? John Mabry is a possibility, but that thins out the bench (and you still have to call up someone). Walker could move to first and give Hairston or Perez an everyday job at second.

That's acceptable enough, I guess, but it sure doesn't make a division winner. Then again, would anyone? You don't exactly replace .335/46/107, even if Lee wasn't going to repeat those numbers to the hit.

And with that, a series at New Busch, or whatever they're calling it. Great time to have that one.

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