Premature speculation

The Cubs have played 70 games (92 to go). At 45-25, they have the best record in baseball; they lead the NL in average, OBP, runs scored, runs allowed and ERA; nearly every starter plus several pitchers have a case for All-Star selection. In the 100th anniversary year of the last time the Cubs won the World Series, an end to the century of misery is starting to look possible. And yet they only have a 3.5-game lead in the division (thanks to the PECOTA-unforeseen success to this point of the Cardinals), one of the smallest in baseball. (The Diamondbacks, who last year used 90 wins to just barely hold on to the NL's deepest division, are just 37-33 and yet lead the West by 5.5 games because the other four teams are well below .500.) As such, there's still plenty of feeling that the Cubs are going to be in the market - no, need to be in the market - to upgrade their team before the July 31 trade deadline.

I always try not to be recklessly optimistic when it comes to the Cubs. But I look at this team right now and I think maybe it's a little soon to start talking about brushing people aside. Maybe in another month things will look different. But let's take a look at this team, and at possible positional upgrades, and you tell me if people aren't moving to the trading block a bit too quickly.

C - Geovany Soto (.288/.374/.527, 11 HR, 42 RBI; 28% CS)
You can't possibly complain about Geovany Soto. When the Cubs went to the NLCS in 2003, their catchers were Damian Miller (76 OPS+) and Paul Bako (67 OPS+). They were fairly strong defensive catchers (combined 36.7% CS), but Soto is so much better offensively that it's clearly a much bigger advantage for the Cubs nowadays. The only question will be if Soto can hold up over a full season, but Henry Blanco is there to spell him, and playing a full season at Iowa and then coming to the Cubs in September last year didn't seem to slow Soto down. Clearly no needs here.

1B - Derrek Lee (.289/.349/.511, 14 HR, 44 RBI)
Lee's been slumping a little recently, but he's Derrek Lee. Solid here. At backup, Micah Hoffpauir's been hitting pretty well in his limited action, and he adds a lefty power bat off the bench in Daryle Ward: Professional Hitter's absence.

2B - Mark DeRosa (.299/.384/.464, 8 HR, 36 RBI, 97 positions played)
At age 33, DeRosa looks primed to have his best season as a professional - he's already closing on his career high in homers (13) and is almost halfway to his career high in RBI (74), plus his current slash averages would be career highs in all three categories. All that and he can play virtually anywhere on the field, save maybe pitcher, catcher and center - and I bet he'd try center if he had to. (He's already played five positions this year, including extended spells in left and at third during injuries to Soriano and Ramirez.) Did the Brian Roberts fiasco in spring training fire him up, or is he just having a career year at the perfect time? (Roberts, for the record, has a .361 OBP at the moment.)

SS - Ryan Theriot (.310/.388/.373, 32 BB/23 K, 1 HR, 18 RBI)
Okay, Theriot could probably field his position better, and he's got no power. His SB% is also way down (to an ugly 13/8, already twice as many times as he was caught last year with half the steals so far). But he's doing a good job of getting on base, and as the usual #2 hitter when the #1 hitter is a power guy, that's pretty much what you look for him to do, hopefully sticking around for the ride when Lee or Ramirez hit one out (or scampering around on a double). I would like to see a few more hits that aren't singles, but overall there's not much to complain about as of yet. There is still the nagging question of whether he can avoid another September fade.

3B - Aramis Ramirez (.300/.412/.502, 10 HR, 45 RBI, 40 BB/41 K)
Though Ramirez is only on pace for mid-20s in home runs, he's on pace to blow past his career high in walks (50) and OBP (.373). He's always been a hotter second-half player - his career best month for homers is July, and August for OPS - so while his HR and RBI totals don't project to anywhere near a year like 2006 (38/119), it's worth remembering that in 2006 he had just 14 HR and 43 RBI at the end of June before going on a tear over the final three months. All in all he's probably been the most consistent offensive force on the team since coming over in 2003 from Pittsburgh, even though you can pencil him in for a couple missed weeks most years (it helped his numbers to play 157 games in 2006).

LF - Alfonso Soriano (.283/.332/.547, 15 HR, 40 RBI, 7 SB/1 CS)
Of course, one of the main reasons for discussion of help is Soriano's absence - and perhaps rightly so, since he was (and still is) leading the team in home runs. But as I've pointed out before, the team OBP tends to go up in Soriano's absence, and it's not like there haven't been RBI machines at the #3, #4, and #6 holes in the order. Besides, what's the point of scrambling to fill this void with someone from the outside who'd be rendered useless as soon as Soriano returns?

CF - Jim Edmonds (.309/.342/.515, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 6 2B, just 22 games played as a Cub)
Edmonds took a little while to warm up, but now that he has, he's pretty warm - .375/.409/.625 in June, in fact. So why are we still talking about the need for a "left-handed power bat?" (And more importantly, if that is the need, why is anyone bringing up Scott Podsednik?)

RF - Kosuke Fukudome (.293/.401/.426, 5 HR, 29 RBI, 45 BB/42 K)
Whether or not it's true that Fukudome passed the art of getting on base to the rest of the team by osmosis, he's certainly been successful at it, trailing only Ramirez in OBP and leading the team in walks. With warmer weather coming, I think it's entirely possible for that power number to climb; there's still a chance he approaches 20 HR, I think. And while he's not the prototypical power-hitting corner OF, he might just be the best defensive RF in the National League. Think - well - Ichiro, except that only once has Ichiro recorded an OBP higher than .400, mostly because he doesn't take many walks. Fukudome doesn't steal as many bases, though. Still, his strong fundamentals have been a welcome sight for anyone frustrated by years of Dustyball.

Bench - Ronny Cedeno, Mike Fontenot, Henry Blanco, Micah Hoffpauir, Reed Johnson, Daryle Ward
Johnson has actually seen a lot of starts, hitting .267/.342/.381, though he's come up with a few timely home runs and has been a solid backup-type guy who can make starts in left or center when needed. Hoffpauir and Ward both fill the role of the "slow power-hitting lefty who can fill in at first or, if you're desperate, in an outfield corner," depending on Ward's health (right now, not). Blanco has been hitting pretty well by his standards and had a key HR in the big comeback vs. the Rockies. Cedeno and Fontenot are kind of slightly lesser offensive versions of Theriot, but they can both fill in on the infield (Cedeno pretty much anywhere, Fontenot at second if DeRosa is playing elsewhere). It's not the deepest bench ever, but it has a lot of guys who can get on base - Cedeno and Fontenot have gotten better at working walks, Ward can take a walk, and Johnson practically loves the hit-by-pitch. It's also worth mentioning here that Carlos Zambrano is hitting .362/.362/.511 and may actually be the best-hitting non-regular the Cubs have. (Although he does not know how to take a walk.)

SP - Carlos Zambrano (8-2, 2.98 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 7 HR, 32 BB/66 K)
SP - Ted Lilly (7-5, 4.76 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 14 HR, 31 BB/83 K)
SP - Ryan Dempster (8-2, 2.81 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 8 HR, 35 BB/75 K)
SP - Jason Marquis (5-3, 4.24 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 6 HR, 30 BB/37 K)
SP - Sean Gallagher (3-3, 4.54 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 4 HR, 15 BB/36 K)

Some of the numbers could definitely be better - Zambrano's WHIP, for example, is one of the highest of his career (it's better than last year's, but let's not forget that he sorta sucked last year), and it's not even due to walks - he's been pitching more to contact and sometimes it's been causing him to give up a lot of hits. His ERA isn't too bad for it, I guess, and his cultivation of a sinker has dropped his HR allowed. Lilly's ERA is so high because of his awful start to the year, but over the last seven weeks he's been much improved, finally dropping the ERA under 5.00 with six innings of shutout ball against Toronto on Sunday. He's also been striking guys out like crazy, including back-to-back double-digit K games on May 9 and 14. Dempster has been the shocker of the year, not only leading the starters in ERA and (by quite a bit) in WHIP, but having no starts under 5 innings (the only starter of whom that's true), the team's only CG, and just two starts where he allowed as many as four runs (and none where he allowed more) are all pretty impressive stats for a guy who spent the last several years as a reliever. That, of course, is the main concern with him (will he have enough stamina for the whole year, and especially deep [we hope] into October?); that and his BABIP, which at .215 is pretty low and risks a regression to the mean at some point. Marquis was looking to start his second-half shitfest early this year until getting an earful from Piniella on the mound; in his last two starts he's turned in two pretty dominant outings (at least by his standards). My dad always says he thinks Marquis has stuff that's just as good as Brandon Webb and his problem is making the pitches - while that's as true as what would happen if a frog had wings (he wouldn't bump his ass a-hoppin'), maybe Piniella can actually smack some mental makeup into Marquis. Or maybe these two starts were just a blip. As for Gallagher, he hasn't looked too bad for a rookie. He has nearly as many Ks as Marquis in half as many starts, and he's a hard-luck 3-3 as the Cubs have scored three runs or less in four of his seven starts. He still needs to show he can make good enough pitches to last beyond five innings on a start-by-start basis, though.

Aside from the fact that only one of those guys is a lefty, I like this rotation right now. My main concern is that it needs to go deeper into games.

RP - Carlos Marmol (1-1, 3 sv, 2.09 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 15 BB/63 K, 43.0 IP)
RP - Bob Howry (2-2, 1 sv, 5.08 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 5 BB/29 K, 33.2 IP)
RP - Michael Wuertz (1-1, 2.73 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 12 BB/16 K, 29.2 IP)
RP - Jon Lieber (2-3, 3.21 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 4 BB/18 K, 33.2 IP)
RP - Kerry Wood (3-1, 18 sv, 2.65 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 8 BB/44 K, 37.2 IP)

Bullpen wear is another possible worry. I'd be less worried about Marmol if Howry and Wuertz could get their crap together; Howry is looking a bit better but Wuertz has been a damn mess recently, like in San Diego on June 2 when he put two guys on with walks, forcing Lou to go to Marmol earlier than he wanted and ultimately helping to cause the home run the next inning that scared the hell out of me. In recent years, Wuertz was like Marmol, a guy who could come in and strike out the side - this year he has just 16 K in 29.2 innings, and his ERA is mostly so low because he'll get pulled and Marmol will strand the inherited runners. Marmol is pitching too many games, in my opinion. Maybe guys like Eyre and Cotts can help take some of the load off, as they've both been decent since returning, but since they're both lefties, they'll probably see a lot more situational use. Aside from the overuse, of course, Marmol's been pretty godlike. As for Lieber, his one spot start was a total fiasco, but he's been pretty good out of the pen. People were ready to run Wood out of town after he blew three of his first seven save chances (along with the Opening Day issues that Fukudome bailed him out of), but since then he's blown just one, and now none since May 24, saving 8 in a row and 14 of 15 chances. Workload might be a concern there as well - after all, he's already thrown more innings than in any year since 2005. But right now he's second in the NL in saves, is striking guys out, and has mostly been unhittable.

So!

What did you notice in that list that the Cubs were really missing? I can think of three things:

*Lefty outfield bat
*Lefty starter
*Another shutdown reliever

Let's look at these one at a time:

Lefty outfield bat: Right now, this is Edmonds, and I see no need for it to be otherwise. But let's say that he cools back off and, come late July, the Cubs are mediocre in center again. The problem with calling for a lefty outfield bat - and preferably one with power - is that there's nowhere to put it but center; Fukudome and Soriano are pretty well entrenched at the corners (we've already seen it's not worth moving Soriano, and while Fukudome probably could play center, Lou has already stated his understandable reluctance to move Fukudome when he might be the best right fielder in the NL). Here's your list of lefty CF power bats who have seen regular playing time this year:

Josh Hamilton, David DeJesus, Nate McLouth, Grady Sizemore, Rick Ankiel.

Well, I'm sure all of those guys will be available. DeJesus, maybe, but then he's not really even a power hitter looking at his career stats - if he gets to 20 this year, which is a small stretch from his current 7, that would vastly outpace his career high of 9. The rest you can just forget. Maybe the Cubs should have held onto Hamilton when they took him in the Rule V draft two years ago, rather than giving him to the Reds for nothing. (Can you imagine this team right now if the center fielder were hitting even close to the way Josh Hamilton is hitting? Now I'm getting mad. Let's just move on.)

Lefty starter: The obvious answer is "C.C. Sabathia," but it's hardly a guarantee that he's going to be traded, and even if he is, he'll probably cost a king's ransom just in prospects - and that's before you sign him to a $20 million-per-year extension. There are less obvious guys out there - Randy Wolf, for example, although it turns out that his 3.83 ERA is exactly league average for a guy whose home starts are in Petco. (Home: 2.45; road: 5.31. Yeesh.) Erik Bedard has been mentioned if the new Mariners GM wants to ship him right back out. But Bedard, for all his apparent talent, has been awful away from Safeco, and his demeanor seems a little frosty, which I'm not sure would fit into this clubhouse so well. (If we got the 2007 Erik Bedard, then it might not matter. But so far it's unclear that he's not something of a one-year wonder.) Among non-lefties, I've heard Paul Byrd's name thrown out, but his ERA is 4.89; Greg Maddux was also mentioned, but do we need to go down that road again? (Also, his ERA away from Petco is a very human 4.75.)

Shutdown reliever: Nobody trades shutdown relievers - or if they do, you always, always overpay. Better off calling Ascanio back up and giving him another shot, or something. Right now I think the bullpen is holding steady enough.

So, yeah. Is there really anyone out there worth bringing in? Is it worth mortgaging the farm system to do so? (I mean, Peter Gammons doesn't even think we have enough to give up to get Sabathia from the Indians, and it's kind of hard to disagree - we'd really have to give up a young, potential impact pitcher in return, I think, and given Rich Hill's age and well-documented struggles I doubt the Indians would buy him in that role. Jose Ceda, maybe, but he's probably too raw to headline a deal. If there's anyone else out there who scouts love enough to front a trade for the reigning AL Cy Young winner, I don't know who he'd be.) I'm not inclined to say so right now. Sabathia and Bedard are the only two I might put on that pedestal - if you're going to make that kind of trade, make it for a potential impact guy, not for Randy Wolf - but if they're even available, it's not clear we've got the goods. And even if we do, both have potential downsides - Bedard has looked awful outside of a pitcher's park in Safeco and seems like a cold fish, and Sabathia doesn't exactly have a sparkling playoff record (although I know it's a very small sample size, and of course you do have to get to the playoffs first). I mean, I wouldn't say no to having Sabathia (or, I suppose, Bedard) on my team in a vacuum, but it's not like there aren't other things to take into consideration.

But for God's sake, if you hear that the Cardinals are trying to deal for Sabathia, throw the kitchen sink in there.