Even better than the road thing

As pretty much everyone knows because the media won't shut up about it, the Cubs haven't been a great road team this year. In fact, they're 32-8 (!!!) at home, and just 16-20 on the road. I was in a Baseball Prospectus chat today when the issue came up via a Rays fan, after John Perrotto had commented that the Cubs were the team to beat in the NL Central:

jlarsen (DRays Bay): Cubs too strong in the long haul? They're horrible on the road(under .500 possibly) and the Rays completely destroyed Marmol after Lou forgot he had Carlos in the 'pen for a few consecutive days. If Rays fans know anything, it's that Lou is known to make some very questionable moves that point that he was as much the blame for the Rays only topping out at 70 wins when he was manager as the front office was.

John Perrotto: I still think they are the best team in the NL Central, though your points about their weaknesses are well taken.

So, a few things about that:

(1) As pointed out by a Cubs fan later in the chat, it's not quite accurate to say the Rays "completely destroyed" Marmol in last Thursday's game; if anything, they destroyed Eyre, off whom Crawford hit the GS. Marmol destroyed himself via two walks and two hit batsmen.
(2) It's a bit ironic to hear a Rays fan questioning the Cubs' credentials due to their road record. Your Tampa Bay Rays home/road record splits:

Home: 30-13; Road: 14-18

The Rays, in fact, have played more home games than any team in baseball to this point, and are exactly as "horrible" on the road as are the Cubs. Throw in the fact that the Rays have an extremely young starting pitching staff (the oldest of their five primaries is 26, and only two of the five have seasons of more than 170 innings to their credit in their careers) and I'd be a little bit more worried about my team than the Cubs if I'm a Tampa fan.

But whatever. This isn't about the Rays. The point is to look at the Cubs' road "struggles" and ask the question: are they doomed because of this?

Well, let's consider a couple things right off.

1. If the Cubs finish with the best record in the NL, it might not matter.
Even if you assume the Cubs can only win at home - to the tune of the .800 winning percentage they've posted there so far - they would still put up 101 wins if they continue their current home and road winning percentages through the rest of the year. As I mentioned a few posts ago, it's probably not likely that either of these trends will continue, but it's likely that they'll both approach each other. And if the Cubs use that to win 100 games, they'll almost certainly have the best record in the NL, and if they keep winning at home in the postseason, hello World Series. But let's not get ahead of ourselves here.

2. The Cubs score more runs than they allow on the road.
The Cubs' enormous +112 run differential - by far the best in baseball - has been built on the back of their home record, where they have scored 260 runs in 40 games (6.5 rpg!) while allowing just 151. But their road differential is also positive, with 158 runs scored (4.4 rpg) and 155 allowed. In other words, the Cubs' Pythagorean road record is 18-18, meaning that so far they have been a bit unlucky. And, in fact, if we look at the Cubs' 20 road losses, we find that fully fifteen of them have been by one or two runs. Even the series in Tampa, where the Cubs supposedly looked awful and had the floor mopped with themselves, saw the Cubs lose the first two games by a combined two runs. In fact, as pointed out by Mike D. on Hire Jim Essian:

If you look at their last thirteen losses, they have lost by one run in eight of those games, by two runs twice, and by three runs once. The only two losses in that span by more than three runs are the Tampa disaster and the game two weeks ago when Zambrano blew his top in Chavez Ravine–and even in both of those games, the Cubs had been winning going into their opponent’s half of the 7th inning.

In fact, the Cubs' team ERA is 3.44 at home and 3.92 on the road - half a run worse, of course, but still pretty good.

The obvious point is that the Cubs hit a lot better at home than they do on the road. The somewhat damning slashes:

Home: .311/.388/.506
Road: .254/.330/.383

Ick, right? As it happens, the latter number is mostly dragged down by the particularly poor road play of Kosuke Fukudome and Mark DeRosa - both hitting .214 with sub-.325 OBPs on the road right now - just as the home numbers are somewhat inflated by the exact opposite performances that Fukudome (.372/.479/.547) and DeRosa (.352/.432/.512) have turned in at Wrigley. Given that both are major-league caliber players, I doubt these splits will continue to be quite so heinous all year. DeRosa's career splits show a guy who's a better player at home, but he's pretty much always had a hitter's park as home base, so that's not too surprising. More encouraging are the home/road splits of guys like Lee and Soto, which line up fairly well (Soto's stat lines are almost shockingly similar home vs. away). Ultimately we're not even halfway through the season yet, and it's entirely likely that the numbers will stabilize.

3. Why pick on the Cubs with this data?
Here are all the teams within 6.5 of their division leads with similar home/road issues as the Cubs to this point:

Boston (29-9 home, 18-22 road)
Tampa Bay (30-13 home, 14-18 road)
White Sox (24-11 home, 17-23 road)
Minnesota (25-16 home, 15-20 road)
Detroit (20-16 home, 16-23 road)
Cleveland (20-18 home, 15-23 road)
Florida (22-15 home, 18-20 road)
Mets (20-14 home, 17-23 road)
Atlanta (27-12 home, 11-27 road)
Milwaukee (25-13 home, 16-21 road)
Arizona (24-15 home, 15-22 road)
Dodgers (19-17 home, 16-23 road)

Well, look at that - it's nearly every goddamn team in baseball. In fact, only five teams in baseball have road records above .500, and only three have road records more than a game over - the Phillies (20-17), the Cardinals (21-16), and the Angels (a jaw-dropping 24-12). So far from being "horrible" on the road, to use the parlance of our goofy Rays fan friend, the Cubs are doing pretty much what everyone else is doing - having a slight losing record on the road - with the caveat that they are also destroying the competition at home right now. There's no real reason to think the Cubs will be below .500 on the road all year, but even if they are, there's a decent chance they'd still win in the mid-90s, and it's hard to see that not being good enough for a playoff spot.

Of course, yes, I think the Cubs need to improve on the road, especially with a lot of road games coming up and especially with those games coming against teams the Cubs need to beat (St. Louis and Milwaukee in particular). The ten-game road trip starting Friday - three on the South Side, four in San Francisco, three in St. Louis - will be a good barometer; 5-5 is the worst I hope to see out of that trip. But come on - this team is more talented than any of those three. If they can just scrape out a few more runs here and there, that road record will turn around in a hurry.