The magic number is zero. The Cubs are your 2007 NL Central champions. From a low point of nine games under .500 on June 2, and 8.5 games back of the Brewers as late as June 23, the Cubs crawled out of the abyss, going 23-10 in the next 33 games to reach a tie for first. All told, the Cubs are 50-37 since that time, and are three games up with two to play. (Obviously, it's helped that the Brewers are 38-48 since taking that lead.) Whatever the reason, it's all over now - the Cubs are in the playoffs and for just the third time in memory (I was too young for 1984 and I simply don't have any recollection of 1989), I get to watch October baseball and do something besides root against the Yankees. Even better, I won't have to watch the Cubs play the Braves this time.
The other NL playoff spots look like they're going to belong to Arizona, San Diego, and Philadelphia, and the Cubs would get the West winner in that scenario, which is currently Arizona and probably will be Arizona. With that in mind, let's examine the upcoming Cubs-D'Backs NLDS and see what we think might happen.
The Diamondbacks are, right now, 90-70 with two games against the Rockies to play. They are the only 90-win team in the NL (though the Padres and Phillies are both still capable of getting there) and the only 50-home-win team in the NL (though the Brewers are still capable of getting there). All this and the D'Backs have been outscored this season, 717-708 through 160 games. (The Mariners are the only other team over .500 to have been outscored.) What this says is that the Diamondbacks win a lot of close games. A lot of them. In fact, they're 32-19 in one-run games. (The Cubs famously started this season with a horrible one-run-game record. They've crawled their way back to 23-22 in such contests, but still: edge, D'Backs.) The Diamondbacks do not want to get into a slugfest, ever. They're 20-25 in games decided by five runs or more; the Cubs are 26-17. The Diamondbacks' team BA is .251 (15th in the NL); team OBP is .321 (14th). The team ERA of 4.11, by comparison, is third.
Head to Head
The D'Backs won this season's series, 4-2, taking two out of three at both Wrigley and Chase Field. The games were pretty close. In the Wrigley series, the Cubs hit Brandon Webb - easily Arizona's best starter - in the first game, winning 6-2, but couldn't muster much offense in the next two games, losing 3-2 and 3-0. In Arizona, the Cubs also won the first game 6-2 behind a great start from Sean Marshall (who allowed just two hits in six innings), then dropped 3-1 and 5-4 decisions. In other words, the season series was really pretty close, with the Cubs at least having chances in all four games they lost.
By Position
Catcher: Lou Piniella doesn't seem totally sure which catcher he's going to go with. Geovany Soto has hit since coming back up and is a solid defender, while Jason Kendall brings the experience of a canny veteran but not a whole lot else at the moment. I expect both catchers to be on the playoff roster and possibly to get mixed around if one or the other fails to hit, though I think Lou wants to find one he can ride through the playoffs as soon as possible. The Diamondbacks are caught primarily by Chris Snyder, who has a pretty average stick but has been great in the field, making just one error this year and throwing out more than a third of attempted base-stealers. Aside from Soriano and Theriot, the Cubs don't run much, so this may not be much of an issue. If Kendall starts, however, look for the D'Backs to try and press their advantage in this area.
EDGE: D'Backs if Kendall starts, push if Soto starts
First Base: Derrek Lee's power has been down this year, but he's still managed to hit well over .300 and hit a lot of doubles. Plus, despite a shaky spell down the stretch, he's a great defensive first baseman, which has helped during the Cubs' infield musical chairs this season. Conor Jackson has had a decent season for Arizona, hitting .282 with 15 home runs, but for a first baseman that's not terribly impressive.
EDGE: Cubs
Second Base: Mark DeRosa's contract was widely derided when he was signed in the offseason, but it's worked out pretty well - DeRosa has played several positions, including filling in admirably at third during Aramis Ramirez's injuries, and he's hitting almost .300. Arizona's 2B is manned by journeyman Augie Ojeda, spelled by rookie Emilio Bonifacio. Starter Orlando Hudson had season-ending thumb surgery in mid-September.
EDGE: Cubs
Shortstop: It's been a streaky season for Ryan Theriot; at one point hitting near .300, he's slumped to .269 with some rough play down the stretch. Recently he was demoted to hitting 8th in the lineup. He still brings speed to the team (28 stolen bases to just 4 CS) and has played fine in the field. Arizona's Stephen Drew hits just .240, but with 12 home runs he's got a little more pop than Theriot does. He's been a little worse in the field error-wise, but he probably has a little more range.
EDGE: Push
Third Base: Arizona's intended starter Chad Tracy had his season ended by injury, forcing AA call-up Mark Reynolds to fill in. Reynolds has hit pretty well since coming up in May, hitting .283 with 17 home runs. Aramis Ramirez, of course, has cracked the 100-RBI plateau and has 26 home runs, slugging .552. Reynolds has also found the going a little rough in the field, making 10 errors in 219 chances; Ramirez has 10 in 353.
EDGE: Cubs
Left Field: Eric Byrnes has been a revelation for Arizona this year, hitting 21 home runs, scoring 100 runs, and stealing 50 bases. He doesn't have Alfonso Soriano's power, but he has at least as much speed (and runs more, certainly) and is maybe the one guy on Arizona you definitely want to keep off the basepaths. Soriano has 19 assists this year; Byrnes has 9 in left, which still suggests a decent arm. Aside from his SB stats, though, Byrnes has tailed off a bit in the second half, hitting just .262 since the break (perhaps worn out from all those All-Star Game promos he appeared in for Fox). Soriano's second half has been slower too, but he's coming around in crunch time, hitting 13 home runs in September with an OPS well over 1.000.
EDGE: Cubs (slight)
Center Field: Chris Young, the leadoff hitter who makes Soriano look like Ichiro. I know studies have shown that batting order is a bit overrated, but do you think there's any chance that some of the D'Backs' run-scoring issues can be chalked up to the fact that their leadoff hitter has an OBP below .300? 74 players qualify for the NL batting title this year, and of those 74, Chris Young ranks 71st in OBP, getting on at a ludicrously bad .294 clip, forty points lower than Soriano (whose OBP is already not very good for a leadoff hitter). Still, Young hits first for the same reason Soriano does - he's got 32 home runs this year and is 27/6 at base-stealing. He's not always going to hit (.235), but nearly a quarter of his hits leave the premises, meaning he, like Soriano, is capable of providing instant offense. Meanwhile, the Cubs' center field is likely to be manned by Jacque Jones, who despite turning it on to the tune of .349 in August and .301 in September, is having a pretty lousy year and is as likely to have an ugly-looking strikeout in a big spot as anyone in baseball. (It's possible Craig Monroe could start in center against a left-handed pitcher.)
EDGE: D'Backs
Right Field: This spot has shifted around for the Cubs, but it will likely be filled by Cliff Floyd, with Matt Murton or possibly Monroe getting the start against a left-hander. Floyd has the power for a 30-homer season (he has two), but he's hit just 9 this year, his lowest total since he had six in 61 games for the 1997 Marlins. Floyd has hit four of those homers in September, though, and he's good at taking a walk. Arizona will counter with Justin Upton, the 2o-year-old future star called up in August. Upton has loads of talent, but he hasn't hit just yet, with a .226 average in 41 games.
EDGE: Cubs
Starting pitching: The Diamondbacks probably have the best starter in this series in Brandon Webb, but despite his 3.01 ERA and long scoreless-innings streak, he's just 18-10. Part of that's because he doesn't get a ton of run support, but he's also a feast-or-famine kind of guy - in his 18 wins, he has an ERA of 1.28, but in ten losses his ERA is nearly six. Still, he's probably the best pitcher in the NL, and he's certainly no less consistent than Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano, whose ERA is 1.53 in wins but 7.75 in losses. Both pitched last night, meaning they're on a collision course for Game One of this series, which is likely to be required viewing for anyone who likes pitching.
Beyond the aces, both staffs have been a little better than average but not much more. Ted Lilly has been something of a secondary ace for the Cubs, his 3.86 ERA leading the team and his 15 wins second. (He'll probably have his scheduled Sunday start skipped so he's ready for Game Two.) All told, the Cubs' top four - Zambrano, Lilly, Hill and Marquis - have an ERA of 4.10, while Arizona's top four - Webb, Livan Hernandez, Micah Owings and Doug Davis - have an ERA of 4.06. On the whole I think I'd call it even, but I'll give Arizona a slight edge because we can't be sure that we're going to get "Good Zambrano" for the entire series.
EDGE: D'Backs (slight)
Relief pitching: Arizona has a big edge in the closer department - Jose Valverde has 47 saves and a 1.12 WHIP, though he has blown seven. Ryan Dempster has only blown three saves (while recording 28), but he's given up at least one earned run in six of his last eight appearances, and he seems incredibly uncomfortable in non-save situations. The rest of the Cubs bullpen has been pretty solid - Howry, Wuertz, Wood, and Eyre have all been pretty good the last month or two, and Marmol has been lights-out all year, allowing just 11 earned runs in more than 68 innings (his ERA+ is 316) while striking out 95. I would like the Cubs' chances in any game where they can get to the seventh with a lead. Of course, Arizona's bullpen has been strong as well - Tony Pena, Brandon Lyon, Doug Slaten and erstwhile Cub Juan Cruz all have ERA+s of at least 140.
EDGE: D'Backs
Bench: Both benches feature two professional hitters - Tony Clark and Jeff Cirillo in Arizona, Daryle Ward and Craig Monroe for the Cubs - and a bunch of fairly young players. Slight edge to the D'Backs here because Clark has the most power in that group and Monroe has looked lost at the plate, but I'd take Ward if I needed a bench player on either team to get a hit.
EDGE: D'Backs (slight)
Manager: Given the rather insane youth of Bob Melvin's team - average age 26.6 - he's done a heck of a job coaxing 90 wins out of them while other youth movement teams like the Marlins and Pirates slumped to 90 losses. It's easy to argue that Lou Piniella has underachieved given the Cubs' payroll and the fact that they'll finish with half a dozen or so fewer wins than Arizona, but he's nevertheless done a solid job turning the team around after it nearly imploded in May and most of the calls he's made down the stretch have turned out to be the right ones. He's also got a World Series ring, which Melvin does not.
EDGE: Cubs (slight)
Experience: The Cubs definitely win on experience - six of Arizona's eight starting position players are 26 or younger, and nearly all of their playoff experience is accounted for by Livan Hernandez, who hasn't pitched a playoff game since getting shelled by Anaheim in the 2002 World Series. The Cubs have less playoff experience than some teams, but Lee, Monroe, Marquis, Floyd, Eyre and Soriano have played in the World Series, while Ramirez, DeRosa, Kendall, Wood and Jones also have LCS experience. In fact, while Eric Byrnes is the only starting position player for Arizona to have playoff experience, the Cubs feature only Ryan Theriot without any. Experience isn't everything, of course, but it's nice to have.
EDGE: Cubs (big)
So there you go. I tend to be conservative/pessimistic, so I'm going to refrain from making a pick, because I'd be too nervous picking the Cubs to win but too guilty picking them to lose. One way or the other I think it should be a pretty interesting series, going four or five, and I'll be doing my best to watch every pitch of every game, just like I did in 2003. When the Cubs are in the playoffs, you've gotta savor it. Let's hope we all get to savor it for the full extra month.
Saturday, September 29, 2007
Thursday, September 27, 2007
Battle of who could choke less
In my estimation, there are four kinds of losses that, if not specific to the Cubs, they seem to suffer through more often than most teams. These are:
Type 1: Look completely overmatched against a pitcher who would get destroyed by any other team in the league.
Type 2: Fall behind by several runs early, come back (2a: within a run; 2b: to tie; 2c: actually take the lead), then stop hitting for the rest of the game and lose.
Type 3: Score a couple runs early but blow a chance to tack on several more, then stop hitting for the rest of the game.
Type 4: Hold a lead late that gives your fans a false sense of security, then proceed to totally gag it up. Classic example: Game 6 of the 2003 NLCS.
This series featured examples of the first two types, with Type 2 embodying the losses both yesterday and today. And that's why, despite a sizeable pro-Cubs contingent, the Cubs stumbled out of Florida with ten straight losses to the Marlins. Missed opportunity after missed opportunity.
And yet after all that, the magic number is two, thanks to ample help from the Brewers, who clearly don't want to win the division either. The Cubs need to win just one more game to assure themselves of a playoff at worst; two wins, or a win and a Brewers loss (or two more Brewers losses, but I'd really like this team to win a game before the end of the season), and the Cubs are in. And then I can start worrying about how they don't match up too well with any of the potential playoff opponents.
I'd like to see Zambrano have a big start tomorrow and pitch us in. That would be a nice punctuation mark to his up-and-down year. Am I confident in that happening? No, not especially. But hopefully he'll at least pitch okay. At the very least I hope the rest of the team can shake out of the funk and go back to the form that saw them maul the Pirates just five days ago.
Type 1: Look completely overmatched against a pitcher who would get destroyed by any other team in the league.
Type 2: Fall behind by several runs early, come back (2a: within a run; 2b: to tie; 2c: actually take the lead), then stop hitting for the rest of the game and lose.
Type 3: Score a couple runs early but blow a chance to tack on several more, then stop hitting for the rest of the game.
Type 4: Hold a lead late that gives your fans a false sense of security, then proceed to totally gag it up. Classic example: Game 6 of the 2003 NLCS.
This series featured examples of the first two types, with Type 2 embodying the losses both yesterday and today. And that's why, despite a sizeable pro-Cubs contingent, the Cubs stumbled out of Florida with ten straight losses to the Marlins. Missed opportunity after missed opportunity.
And yet after all that, the magic number is two, thanks to ample help from the Brewers, who clearly don't want to win the division either. The Cubs need to win just one more game to assure themselves of a playoff at worst; two wins, or a win and a Brewers loss (or two more Brewers losses, but I'd really like this team to win a game before the end of the season), and the Cubs are in. And then I can start worrying about how they don't match up too well with any of the potential playoff opponents.
I'd like to see Zambrano have a big start tomorrow and pitch us in. That would be a nice punctuation mark to his up-and-down year. Am I confident in that happening? No, not especially. But hopefully he'll at least pitch okay. At the very least I hope the rest of the team can shake out of the funk and go back to the form that saw them maul the Pirates just five days ago.
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
Marquis de Sad
Wildly overreacting to any single game result is usually my dad's bailiwick, but the results against the Marlins are really starting to bother me. And yes, I know that the magic number was reduced to three tonight, and yes, I know that even being swept by the Marlins won't be that big a deal if we can take two of three against a Dunn-and-Griffey-less Reds team. But yes, it bothers me rather substantially that the Cubs manage to be this bad against the Marlins. That's now nine consecutive losses, and while I'll buy the first seven - the first four coming during the awful '06 season and 5-7 coming at the apex of the late May meltdown this year - the last two have been pretty awful. Lilly and Marquis both looked mediocre at best, not a good precedent coming down the stretch. (Marquis' last two starts: 7.2 IP, 11 ER.) And we're now counting on Steve Trachsel to save a game in this series. Wonderful.
The Marlins, if you didn't know, have the worst pitching staff in the National League. Their team ERA is 4.97. Opponents hit .285 against them. And yeah, they're better at home, but not by much - it's still 4.85 and .280, both of which are not very good numbers.
The Marlins' team ERA against the Cubs this year? 2.60. It's embarrassing.
Mercifully, the extended comparison to the 2004 end-of-season flop that I was going to write in this space was staved off by St. Louis managing to take a game from the Brewers, dropping the Cubs' magic number to 3 without them having to do anything so complicated as win a game. This leaves the division lead at 2 games with four to play. All of Milwaukee's four are against San Diego, a team fighting for its life, playoff-wise, so that's a bonus. Of course, Milwaukee doesn't have to face Jake Peavy and there's no way the Padres can outslug the Brewers. But the odds are against a four-game sweep by Milwaukee, meaning that winning a mere two of the remaining four games should be enough to get the Cubs into the playoffs.
On the cautious optimism scale, I'd say right now I'm at a 4, with a 10 being "dancing in the streets" and a 1 being "post-game 6, 2003 NLCS."
The Marlins, if you didn't know, have the worst pitching staff in the National League. Their team ERA is 4.97. Opponents hit .285 against them. And yeah, they're better at home, but not by much - it's still 4.85 and .280, both of which are not very good numbers.
The Marlins' team ERA against the Cubs this year? 2.60. It's embarrassing.
Mercifully, the extended comparison to the 2004 end-of-season flop that I was going to write in this space was staved off by St. Louis managing to take a game from the Brewers, dropping the Cubs' magic number to 3 without them having to do anything so complicated as win a game. This leaves the division lead at 2 games with four to play. All of Milwaukee's four are against San Diego, a team fighting for its life, playoff-wise, so that's a bonus. Of course, Milwaukee doesn't have to face Jake Peavy and there's no way the Padres can outslug the Brewers. But the odds are against a four-game sweep by Milwaukee, meaning that winning a mere two of the remaining four games should be enough to get the Cubs into the playoffs.
On the cautious optimism scale, I'd say right now I'm at a 4, with a 10 being "dancing in the streets" and a 1 being "post-game 6, 2003 NLCS."
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Fished in
Did you know that the Cubs have lost eight straight to the Marlins? Eight straight. And even though that horrible meltdown series - the one at Wrigley where the players held a meeting and then lost 9-0 - feels like it happened a year ago, it was actually this season and the Cubs are now 0-4 this year against a team with 90 losses. And if they can't figure out a way to win a couple games off a team that doesn't have a single starting pitcher with an ERA under 4.65, they are going to throw away this division, because the Cardinals sure aren't doing shit to help them.
It's the FUCKING MARLINS. They have 90 losses. Their "ace" has 15 losses and an ERA well over 5. And you just lost to him 4-2. Really? This is how you want to go out?
Only the Cubs could have a 3.5-game lead in their division with a week to play and look in serious jeopardy of blowing it because they can't beat two teams that are collectively about 45 games under .500 this year. I'm not saying they will - the magic number is still four, which still favors the Cubs and certainly leaves them in control of their own destiny - but the cautious optimism I had following the destruction of the Pirates is quickly drying up. If the Marlins win tomorrow, it's full-on panic mode.
Can't being a Cubs fan ever be easy? I get enough bad times during the 95-loss seasons that I think I'm entitled to at least one year where they coast. But both playoff appearances in my memory were tight and hard-earned. So will be this one... assuming they don't fucking blow it.
It's the FUCKING MARLINS. They have 90 losses. Their "ace" has 15 losses and an ERA well over 5. And you just lost to him 4-2. Really? This is how you want to go out?
Only the Cubs could have a 3.5-game lead in their division with a week to play and look in serious jeopardy of blowing it because they can't beat two teams that are collectively about 45 games under .500 this year. I'm not saying they will - the magic number is still four, which still favors the Cubs and certainly leaves them in control of their own destiny - but the cautious optimism I had following the destruction of the Pirates is quickly drying up. If the Marlins win tomorrow, it's full-on panic mode.
Can't being a Cubs fan ever be easy? I get enough bad times during the 95-loss seasons that I think I'm entitled to at least one year where they coast. But both playoff appearances in my memory were tight and hard-earned. So will be this one... assuming they don't fucking blow it.
Sunday, September 09, 2007
That will ruin his weekend
The Cubs' quest for a division crown isn't going so well right now. Disturbingly, it's not even the offense that's necessarily been the problem - Friday wasn't good, but we already knew the Cubs struggle against Gorzelanny (it took a Jason Marquis 1-0 CG shutout to beat him earlier this year), which isn't surprising when you consider that he's been one of the best lefty starters in the NL this year. So has Rich Hill, but you wouldn't know it from his 6 ER and nine hits in six innings. After a welcome win by Zambrano, the Cubs proceeded to lose the series thanks to a bed-shitting performance from Steve Trachsel that's going to cause a lot of Cubs fans to wake up in cold sweats over the next few nights with flashbacks to 1999. (Trachsel had fully seven starts that year in which he gave up at least 6 ER, including two in which he allowed nine, en route to a brilliant 8-18 campaign during which his ERA was 5.56.)
Meanwhile - of course - Milwaukee managed to win a road series, just their third since the All-Star Break.
I'm glad Zambrano's back, if this wasn't just one fluke start. But if the rest of the starters are going to go into the tank, does it even matter? You have to win late-season series against crappy teams with nothing left but the chance to play spoiler. The offense has been showing me a bit more - Soriano's power is kicking in, Soto has looked great, etc. - but for God's sake, why can't this team ever have every part of it going good at the same damn time?
Meanwhile - of course - Milwaukee managed to win a road series, just their third since the All-Star Break.
I'm glad Zambrano's back, if this wasn't just one fluke start. But if the rest of the starters are going to go into the tank, does it even matter? You have to win late-season series against crappy teams with nothing left but the chance to play spoiler. The offense has been showing me a bit more - Soriano's power is kicking in, Soto has looked great, etc. - but for God's sake, why can't this team ever have every part of it going good at the same damn time?
Thursday, September 06, 2007
Square one-thirty-nine
Every game up until now, it turns out, has been more or less for naught. As September 6 draws to a close, the Cubs find themselves in exactly the same spot as they were when the season started - deadlocked with the Milwaukee Brewers. (Okay, so on April 1 the Cubs were tied with four other teams too. But since those teams are not tied for first right now, it doesn't matter.) Both teams are 71-68; both have had stretches this season where they were the hottest team in baseball, and both have only managed to settle around .500 despite that. The Cubs led by as many as 2.5 games only a week or so ago; now it is dead even.
Today's game was a bad one to lose. When Soriano hit his second homer, I foolishly thought that the game was won - the bullpen had been strong recently and only needed six outs. Howry gave up a solo home run but had little other trouble, but Dempster couldn't seem to get anyone out, and even if Ethier's home run was a basket job, Ryan seemed headed to his third blown save by hook or by crook. Wuertz's wild pitch was just icing on the cake, not that the Cubs showed any sign of hitting Saito in the bottom of the ninth. This was one where the bottom just dropped out, like that game against the Mets in May. Where the Cubs could have kept a one-game separation in first, they instead dropped into a tie.
With things virtually dead even now (since the annoying Cardinals are just one back; will someone please figure out how to pitch to Rick Ankiel?), let's take a look down the stretch.
Cubs (71-68, tied for first)
Games left: 23
Home/road split: 7/16
Divisional games left: 20
Games left against winning teams: 5
Brewers (71-68, tied for first)
Games left: 23
Home/road split: 10/13
Divisional games left: 15
Games left against winning teams: 11
Cardinals (69-68, one game back)
Games left: 25
Home/road split: 11/14
Divisional games left: 18
Games left against winning teams: 15
At first blush, the schedule seems to favor the Cubs. They have the most road games remaining, but their home/road records this year are virtually identical (38-36 at home, 33-32 away), something that cannot be said of Milwaukee, which plays three more home games down the stretch but still faces the majority of their remaining games on the road, where they are a stunning 26-42 this year. St. Louis is 30-37 on the road. Since all three teams play a majority of road games, it probably helps the Cubs and their +.500 road record most to do so. And of course, the Cubs only play five games against teams with records above .500 - all five of them are against the Cardinals, though, and there's the rub. The Cubs have to play four games at Busch, where St. Louis is 39-31 and where the Cubs have historically not played terribly well (although they're 4-1 there this year). These four games could well decide the division, or at least decide which of the Cardinals and Cubs won't be seriously contending for it. Or they could split the four and we'd be right back where we started.
The Cubs get to play a lot of games against the Central, and in particular the dregs of the Central, with 15 of the 23 games coming against Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Houston. The only problem here? The Cubs' combined record against those three this year is 15-18. Still, if you had to choose who to face down the stretch, you couldn't do a lot better than the Cubs' schedule. The only extra-divisional team is Florida, itself 20 games under .500 (though the Cubs seem to struggle with them). By comparison, the Cardinals play four against the Phillies and Mets, while the Brewers have series against both Atlanta and San Diego - plus the Cardinals and Brewers play each other to start the season's final week, which could be very good for the Cubs, who will be busy playing Florida at the time.
Certainly the Cardinals and Brewers have plenty of games left against bad Central teams too. And they've had more success this year - Milwaukee is 23-14 against the Central's second division, and St. Louis is 24-14. (In fact, the Cubs might well be struggling worse than they are if not for being six games over against their two closest competitors. Oh, the irony.) But the Cubs have the most left, and they have to take advantage of this for a change. The Cubs average just 4.6 runs a game, and the NL Central's bad teams are bad mostly because they can't pitch - the Reds, for example, are third in the NL in runs scored but second-worst in runs allowed. The bats need to come to life, something they've struggled to do for most of the year. Did you know that the Cubs have scored more than six runs in a game just ten times in the second half (and one of those was in a loss)? When you're facing Cincinnati - which averages well over five runs allowed per game - you've gotta put crooked numbers on the board.
So here's what I think the Cubs will have to do to win the division: 15-8.
Milwaukee has 10 home games left and they play .633 ball at home - the good news is that seven of those ten come against St. Louis and San Diego. Still, I can easily see Milwaukee winning three of six on their current road trip, then sweeping the Reds at home (six wins), taking two of three at Houston (eight wins), splitting with Atlanta (ten wins), taking two of three from St. Louis (twelve wins) and splitting with the Padres (14 wins). This means the Cubs will need to go 15-8. (Unless five of those eight losses are to the Cardinals, it shouldn't matter what St. Louis does so long as the Cubs win 15 of their last 23.)
The bigger question, then: can the Cubs win 15 of 23?
It would basically entail winning every series from here on out, which is certainly a possibility given the quality of opposition, but not a lock given the Cubs' tendency to fail to exploit teams like that. 15 wins means two wins in each of the remaining seven multi-game series (wins in six plus a split in Busch), plus a win over the Cardinals in the makeup game at Wrigley on Monday. This is by no means impossible, but it's a tall order. Here are five things the Cubs need to happen to go 15-8 to end the year:
1. Zambrano returns to June/July form.
Hey, remember Carlos Zambrano's two-month stretch where he went 9-3 with an ERA under 2.00? I hope he does, because he's going to have to duplicate it over his last 4-5 starts. Zambrano may not win the Cy Young like he promised, but if he doesn't set a career high for wins (17+), this team could well be in trouble. As well as everyone else has pitched, the ace needs to show up - or at least needs to stop being a guaranteed loss every time he takes the hill.
2. Soriano/Theriot hot at the top.
Soriano's two HR today notwithstanding, the top of the order for the Cubs probably hasn't been quite as productive over the course of the year as one might have liked; between them, Soriano and Theriot have an OBP around .335, which isn't great for your 1-2 guys. However, Soriano has proven he can be streaky, and Theriot has had hot and cold months. One hot month for both of them could make a lot of difference.
3. Power surge.
In previous years the Cubs were the team with the low OBP and all the home runs. (In 2005, for example, the Cubs were #2 in HR but #11 in OBP in the NL.) This year they're the team with the low OBP (#10) and no home runs (#14, with 114, leading just Washington and the Dodgers, the latter of whom only passed 100 with their three-homer barrage today). When you have three potential 40-HR guys on the roster and six guys who have at least one career season of 25 homers or more, you probably shouldn't have only two guys at 20 and just three guys in double digits come September, yet that's where things sit. Mark DeRosa hit four home runs in April but has just one since June 27. 11 of Derrek Lee's 17 homers have been bunched post-All-Star Break. There's no way this team is incapable of having a hot streak with the longball; they haven't managed to do it all year, but these guys have done it before. They just need to figure out how to do it again.
4. Continued strong bullpen play.
Dempster's meltdown today notwithstanding, the bullpen may have been the club's biggest strength since things started to turn around in June, and it's not many Cubs teams about which you could say that recently. Scott Eyre remembered how to pitch; Wuertz, Howry and Dempster have been generally reliable; Marmol has been great. My only concern is that it's not a terribly deep pen right now, but perhaps some of the callups can shore it up.
5. Not playing down to the competition.
The Cubs do this a lot. But with so many games remaining against bad teams, they just can't afford to keep doing it. End of story.
Do I think the Cubs can do it? At this stage I would still call myself "guardedly optimistic," but I don't know that I really expect anything. Even if the Cubs can squeeze into the playoffs, I just don't see this team pulling off the consistency to win a World Series (no matter what St. Louis did last year). I'm happy to follow them as far as they go, as I always will; I just don't think I can imagine that being terribly far, playoffs or not.
Today's game was a bad one to lose. When Soriano hit his second homer, I foolishly thought that the game was won - the bullpen had been strong recently and only needed six outs. Howry gave up a solo home run but had little other trouble, but Dempster couldn't seem to get anyone out, and even if Ethier's home run was a basket job, Ryan seemed headed to his third blown save by hook or by crook. Wuertz's wild pitch was just icing on the cake, not that the Cubs showed any sign of hitting Saito in the bottom of the ninth. This was one where the bottom just dropped out, like that game against the Mets in May. Where the Cubs could have kept a one-game separation in first, they instead dropped into a tie.
With things virtually dead even now (since the annoying Cardinals are just one back; will someone please figure out how to pitch to Rick Ankiel?), let's take a look down the stretch.
Cubs (71-68, tied for first)
Games left: 23
Home/road split: 7/16
Divisional games left: 20
Games left against winning teams: 5
Brewers (71-68, tied for first)
Games left: 23
Home/road split: 10/13
Divisional games left: 15
Games left against winning teams: 11
Cardinals (69-68, one game back)
Games left: 25
Home/road split: 11/14
Divisional games left: 18
Games left against winning teams: 15
At first blush, the schedule seems to favor the Cubs. They have the most road games remaining, but their home/road records this year are virtually identical (38-36 at home, 33-32 away), something that cannot be said of Milwaukee, which plays three more home games down the stretch but still faces the majority of their remaining games on the road, where they are a stunning 26-42 this year. St. Louis is 30-37 on the road. Since all three teams play a majority of road games, it probably helps the Cubs and their +.500 road record most to do so. And of course, the Cubs only play five games against teams with records above .500 - all five of them are against the Cardinals, though, and there's the rub. The Cubs have to play four games at Busch, where St. Louis is 39-31 and where the Cubs have historically not played terribly well (although they're 4-1 there this year). These four games could well decide the division, or at least decide which of the Cardinals and Cubs won't be seriously contending for it. Or they could split the four and we'd be right back where we started.
The Cubs get to play a lot of games against the Central, and in particular the dregs of the Central, with 15 of the 23 games coming against Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Houston. The only problem here? The Cubs' combined record against those three this year is 15-18. Still, if you had to choose who to face down the stretch, you couldn't do a lot better than the Cubs' schedule. The only extra-divisional team is Florida, itself 20 games under .500 (though the Cubs seem to struggle with them). By comparison, the Cardinals play four against the Phillies and Mets, while the Brewers have series against both Atlanta and San Diego - plus the Cardinals and Brewers play each other to start the season's final week, which could be very good for the Cubs, who will be busy playing Florida at the time.
Certainly the Cardinals and Brewers have plenty of games left against bad Central teams too. And they've had more success this year - Milwaukee is 23-14 against the Central's second division, and St. Louis is 24-14. (In fact, the Cubs might well be struggling worse than they are if not for being six games over against their two closest competitors. Oh, the irony.) But the Cubs have the most left, and they have to take advantage of this for a change. The Cubs average just 4.6 runs a game, and the NL Central's bad teams are bad mostly because they can't pitch - the Reds, for example, are third in the NL in runs scored but second-worst in runs allowed. The bats need to come to life, something they've struggled to do for most of the year. Did you know that the Cubs have scored more than six runs in a game just ten times in the second half (and one of those was in a loss)? When you're facing Cincinnati - which averages well over five runs allowed per game - you've gotta put crooked numbers on the board.
So here's what I think the Cubs will have to do to win the division: 15-8.
Milwaukee has 10 home games left and they play .633 ball at home - the good news is that seven of those ten come against St. Louis and San Diego. Still, I can easily see Milwaukee winning three of six on their current road trip, then sweeping the Reds at home (six wins), taking two of three at Houston (eight wins), splitting with Atlanta (ten wins), taking two of three from St. Louis (twelve wins) and splitting with the Padres (14 wins). This means the Cubs will need to go 15-8. (Unless five of those eight losses are to the Cardinals, it shouldn't matter what St. Louis does so long as the Cubs win 15 of their last 23.)
The bigger question, then: can the Cubs win 15 of 23?
It would basically entail winning every series from here on out, which is certainly a possibility given the quality of opposition, but not a lock given the Cubs' tendency to fail to exploit teams like that. 15 wins means two wins in each of the remaining seven multi-game series (wins in six plus a split in Busch), plus a win over the Cardinals in the makeup game at Wrigley on Monday. This is by no means impossible, but it's a tall order. Here are five things the Cubs need to happen to go 15-8 to end the year:
1. Zambrano returns to June/July form.
Hey, remember Carlos Zambrano's two-month stretch where he went 9-3 with an ERA under 2.00? I hope he does, because he's going to have to duplicate it over his last 4-5 starts. Zambrano may not win the Cy Young like he promised, but if he doesn't set a career high for wins (17+), this team could well be in trouble. As well as everyone else has pitched, the ace needs to show up - or at least needs to stop being a guaranteed loss every time he takes the hill.
2. Soriano/Theriot hot at the top.
Soriano's two HR today notwithstanding, the top of the order for the Cubs probably hasn't been quite as productive over the course of the year as one might have liked; between them, Soriano and Theriot have an OBP around .335, which isn't great for your 1-2 guys. However, Soriano has proven he can be streaky, and Theriot has had hot and cold months. One hot month for both of them could make a lot of difference.
3. Power surge.
In previous years the Cubs were the team with the low OBP and all the home runs. (In 2005, for example, the Cubs were #2 in HR but #11 in OBP in the NL.) This year they're the team with the low OBP (#10) and no home runs (#14, with 114, leading just Washington and the Dodgers, the latter of whom only passed 100 with their three-homer barrage today). When you have three potential 40-HR guys on the roster and six guys who have at least one career season of 25 homers or more, you probably shouldn't have only two guys at 20 and just three guys in double digits come September, yet that's where things sit. Mark DeRosa hit four home runs in April but has just one since June 27. 11 of Derrek Lee's 17 homers have been bunched post-All-Star Break. There's no way this team is incapable of having a hot streak with the longball; they haven't managed to do it all year, but these guys have done it before. They just need to figure out how to do it again.
4. Continued strong bullpen play.
Dempster's meltdown today notwithstanding, the bullpen may have been the club's biggest strength since things started to turn around in June, and it's not many Cubs teams about which you could say that recently. Scott Eyre remembered how to pitch; Wuertz, Howry and Dempster have been generally reliable; Marmol has been great. My only concern is that it's not a terribly deep pen right now, but perhaps some of the callups can shore it up.
5. Not playing down to the competition.
The Cubs do this a lot. But with so many games remaining against bad teams, they just can't afford to keep doing it. End of story.
Do I think the Cubs can do it? At this stage I would still call myself "guardedly optimistic," but I don't know that I really expect anything. Even if the Cubs can squeeze into the playoffs, I just don't see this team pulling off the consistency to win a World Series (no matter what St. Louis did last year). I'm happy to follow them as far as they go, as I always will; I just don't think I can imagine that being terribly far, playoffs or not.
Tuesday, September 04, 2007
Zambarrassing
After dropping his fifth consecutive decision - a career worst - and receiving boos from the home fans at Wrigley Field, Carlos Zambrano said the following:
Really, Carlos? Really? You don't understand why? Well, let me go over a few reasons for you:
1) You're the ace of this team and you've lost five straight decisions, at a time when literally every win is absolutely vital.
2) You just signed a gargantuan new contract, the richest per-year multi-year deal a pitcher has ever signed. Do you think you've been earning it so far?
3) Your ERA has gone up nearly a full run since hitting its season low of 3.42 on August 3. In June and July you went 9-3 with an ERA under 2.00 and ten starts out of twelve in which you gave up two earned runs or fewer. In August? Your ERA was 7.06, more than a run worse than it was even in April. On August 3 you walked seven batters in five innings. On August 14 you gave up 13 hits in seven innings against the Reds. You walked five more guys yesterday and gave up eight earned runs. Do you know how long it's been since you gave up eight earned runs? I'll give you a hint - June 22, 2005.
I've spent time in this space defending Zambrano - see below - but as the losses pile up and he keeps looking bad, we have to wonder what's wrong, because something has to be. This guy is prone to having blow-up starts every now and then, but not five in a row. (He bounced back from that 8 ER start in June of '05 with eight shutout innings in his next outing. Does anyone think that's going to happen this time?) So what's wrong?
Injury. I don't know that I buy this one. Injury was the speculation as to why Z was struggling in the first two months, and then he caught fire in June and July. Is it really likely that he covered up an injury for two months, then had it heal, then re-aggravated it but continued to cover it up? I'm sure he doesn't want to be seen as a quitter or the kind of person who signs a big deal and then goes on the DL, but is there anyone out there who would rather see him pitch through an injury if he's going to look like this? If he is injured, he really needs to let someone know. But I just don't think that's it.
Pressure. For what it's worth, this isn't the first time Zambrano has pitched in this situation - in 2004, the Cubs were in a fight for the wild card that they ended up losing, finishing three games back of Houston - but it's his first time doing so as the unquestioned ace, the guy everyone is expecting to come through. Z was the best pitcher on the '04 Cubs - going 16-8 with a 2.75 ERA - but with Maddux, Wood and Prior on the roster, people didn't necessarily look to him first (although Wood and Prior combined for just 259 innings that year). Now? There's no doubt who the ace is supposed to be, but over the last month it's been... I don't know, Jason Marquis? That's not a playoff team. I hope it's not this, because if it is, that suggests that Zambrano won't come through in a tight race until the Cubs sign Johan Santana.
Just plain mental. Zambrano has always been, to put it nicely, mercurial. But he's also been able to use his emotions to his advantage, and recently he hasn't been managing that. Has he lost confidence in himself somehow? Is he just struggling through a rough patch that almost all pitchers hit at some point in their careers? Whatever the reason, he needs to get his head screwed back on the way he did at the start of June. I'm not necessarily advocating a dugout brawl with Jason Kendall, but if even Henry Blanco can't get a good start out of Zambrano, the problem ain't with the catchers. Zambrano pointed to his head after being booed yesterday - the implication, I think, was that he would remember the booing. Let's hope he does. This guy seems to need something to get him motivated again, and if the money isn't going to do it, maybe being reviled by the home fans is just the ticket.
I understand Zambrano's point to a certain degree - I'm sure no baseball player wants to struggle, especially like Z has been doing, and to get booed on top of that must really suck. On the other hand, all that money ought to dampen some of the pain. When you're making that much and not performing, I don't think you can really be too upset by booing, especially in a pennant race. It's just too bad that fixing this won't be as easy as simply buying his control back.
"I don't understand why the fans were booing at me. I can't understand that. They showed me today they just care about them. That's no fair. Because when you are struggling, that's when you want to feel the support of the fans."
Really, Carlos? Really? You don't understand why? Well, let me go over a few reasons for you:
1) You're the ace of this team and you've lost five straight decisions, at a time when literally every win is absolutely vital.
2) You just signed a gargantuan new contract, the richest per-year multi-year deal a pitcher has ever signed. Do you think you've been earning it so far?
3) Your ERA has gone up nearly a full run since hitting its season low of 3.42 on August 3. In June and July you went 9-3 with an ERA under 2.00 and ten starts out of twelve in which you gave up two earned runs or fewer. In August? Your ERA was 7.06, more than a run worse than it was even in April. On August 3 you walked seven batters in five innings. On August 14 you gave up 13 hits in seven innings against the Reds. You walked five more guys yesterday and gave up eight earned runs. Do you know how long it's been since you gave up eight earned runs? I'll give you a hint - June 22, 2005.
I've spent time in this space defending Zambrano - see below - but as the losses pile up and he keeps looking bad, we have to wonder what's wrong, because something has to be. This guy is prone to having blow-up starts every now and then, but not five in a row. (He bounced back from that 8 ER start in June of '05 with eight shutout innings in his next outing. Does anyone think that's going to happen this time?) So what's wrong?
Injury. I don't know that I buy this one. Injury was the speculation as to why Z was struggling in the first two months, and then he caught fire in June and July. Is it really likely that he covered up an injury for two months, then had it heal, then re-aggravated it but continued to cover it up? I'm sure he doesn't want to be seen as a quitter or the kind of person who signs a big deal and then goes on the DL, but is there anyone out there who would rather see him pitch through an injury if he's going to look like this? If he is injured, he really needs to let someone know. But I just don't think that's it.
Pressure. For what it's worth, this isn't the first time Zambrano has pitched in this situation - in 2004, the Cubs were in a fight for the wild card that they ended up losing, finishing three games back of Houston - but it's his first time doing so as the unquestioned ace, the guy everyone is expecting to come through. Z was the best pitcher on the '04 Cubs - going 16-8 with a 2.75 ERA - but with Maddux, Wood and Prior on the roster, people didn't necessarily look to him first (although Wood and Prior combined for just 259 innings that year). Now? There's no doubt who the ace is supposed to be, but over the last month it's been... I don't know, Jason Marquis? That's not a playoff team. I hope it's not this, because if it is, that suggests that Zambrano won't come through in a tight race until the Cubs sign Johan Santana.
Just plain mental. Zambrano has always been, to put it nicely, mercurial. But he's also been able to use his emotions to his advantage, and recently he hasn't been managing that. Has he lost confidence in himself somehow? Is he just struggling through a rough patch that almost all pitchers hit at some point in their careers? Whatever the reason, he needs to get his head screwed back on the way he did at the start of June. I'm not necessarily advocating a dugout brawl with Jason Kendall, but if even Henry Blanco can't get a good start out of Zambrano, the problem ain't with the catchers. Zambrano pointed to his head after being booed yesterday - the implication, I think, was that he would remember the booing. Let's hope he does. This guy seems to need something to get him motivated again, and if the money isn't going to do it, maybe being reviled by the home fans is just the ticket.
I understand Zambrano's point to a certain degree - I'm sure no baseball player wants to struggle, especially like Z has been doing, and to get booed on top of that must really suck. On the other hand, all that money ought to dampen some of the pain. When you're making that much and not performing, I don't think you can really be too upset by booing, especially in a pennant race. It's just too bad that fixing this won't be as easy as simply buying his control back.
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