Make or break

It's somewhat unfortunate that the defining series of the Cubs' season would have to come against the crosstown rival White Sox, but sometimes that's just how things work out. Following a disappointing series loss to the Rangers - currently the second-worst team in baseball, only a half-game ahead of the Reds - the Cubs find themselves 8.5 back in the division, a game behind the Cardinals in third place, and only a game and a half out of fifth. The runs scored/runs allowed ratio has dwindled to 320/303, now worse than Milwaukee's. Since climbing to within five games of first place on June 8, the Cubs are just 5-7, while the Brewers have rebounded after their slump to go 8-3 in the same time period. Meanwhile, the Cardinals keep adding pitching, and while Tomo Ohka and Mike Maroth aren't going to scare the pants off anyone, they're improvements over Anthony Reyes and a sign that St. Louis isn't satisfied with its 301/370 RS/RA ratio.

With the All-Star Break only about two weeks away, it's make-or-break time for the Cubs. Failure to reach .500 by early to mid-July, barring another long slump by the Brewers to keep the division lead accessible, is going to all but stick a fork in the Cubs' season, even if they remain buyers as the trading deadline approaches. (The latest rumor - Ken Griffey Jr. coming over from the Reds - is tantalizing but unlikely, and I'm not sure it even solves any problems this team currently has.)

So why this White Sox series? Because the White Sox have been underachieving as well, possibly even worse than the Cubs have. The Sox are 29-39, already double-digits out in the division and seemingly headed for their first sub-.500 season since 1999 and their first fourth-place finish in the three-division era. Their fans, so giddy just two years ago, are in full-blown depression mode; Bill Simmons talks about a five-year championship grace period, but I think all bets are off once your team stops being the perennial contender that a World Series winner seemingly should. Don't get me wrong, I appreciate the Sox's freefall if only because it shuts up their fans (although deprived of the ability to brag about the Sox's success, some are going straight into "mock the Cubs exclusively" mode, which would be a lot worse if it weren't so desperate and pathetic); it's just that this series would probably tell us a lot more about the Cubs if the Sox didn't look quite so bad right now.

That said, the fact that the Sox are playing so poorly does allow us to use this series as something of a barometer for the rest of the season. With the Cubs at seven games under and flirting with falling out of the division race entirely, here are the four potential outcomes of this weekend's series and what they mean:

Cubs sweep 3-0
This result is, quite obviously, the optimal one. First of all, it tells us that the Cubs are capable of rebounding from disappointing series losses to San Diego and Texas. Second of all, it gets the Cubs within four games of .500, a good position to be in as July approaches, when .500 needs to be accessible. Third of all, it shuts up all Sox fans everywhere. And finally, it shows us that the Cubs are capable of beating teams that they should be beating. Did you know that the Cubs have only swept one series all year, over the Nationals at Wrigley on May 4-6? It's true. That was also the second-to-last time the Cubs were over .500 (the last time was two days later, after they lost one game to fall back to .500, then won).

Cubs win 2-1
The Cubs take the season series if they win 2-1, which would give some bragging rights, but this is more important because it involves winning a road series. Ultimately, the Cubs can pull themselves out of their hole without a huge winning streak so long as they can win most of the series they play. A series against a big rival - while not as important as series against the Cardinals or Brewers - would be nicely symbolic. Yes, winning 2 of 3 from a struggling Sox team isn't nearly as good as sweeping a team in freefall, but given how hard it's been for the Cubs to sweep anyone, I'd take the series win. The Cubs would pick up a game on .500 - a start - and with a series against Milwaukee looming next weekend, hopefully gain some needed momentum.

Cubs lose 2-1
A series loss would hurt. The Sox are not a good team right now and have trouble scoring runs, which leaves the Cubs with little excuse. That plus Aramis Ramirez's return means that there's absolutely no reason the Cubs shouldn't be winning these games 6-2 (except for the fact that they're the Cubs). Two losses means either the starting pitching got roughed up - a problem since the Cubs throw their three best recent starters at the Sox - or that the offense struggled - a problem since the Sox's pitching has not impressed lately - or perhaps that the bullpen turned back into a pumpkin. No matter why it happens, it's going to be emblematic of larger problems likely to keep the Cubs from making any runs at the division.

Cubs get swept
Absolute devastation. In addition to forcing the fans to endure the taunts and jibes of Sox fans for the rest of the year, this would drop the Cubs to ten games under .500 and would probably expose numerous gaping flaws in the team that aren't going to be fixed this year. If this happens, just stop watching the Cubs for the rest of the season, because they aren't going to be doing jack shit.