Broom County

I probably shouldn't get too excited over the sweep of the Sox - I mean, they scored two runs on 16 hits in three games. The Sox are the worst offensive team in baseball right now. Sure, the Cubs took advantage of that - at 5-1, 2-1, and 3-0, the series was full of tight games (Game One having been 2-1 until three late insurance runs), and we certainly can't count on upcoming games against the Rockies and Brewers being winnable with 2 and 3 runs. But Soriano has been super hot for most of June, Ramirez has come back strong, and Lee is still hitting in the .34os even though it seems like he hasn't been truly on since coming off the DL during the first Sox series.

But I am excited, and for one main reason - I just have a hard time believing Milwaukee is a wire-to-wire winner of the Central. Detroit came out of "nowhere" - i.e. a number of experts had them, but casual fans were more surprised - to lead the AL Central nearly the whole way last year (although we should certainly note here that they didn't even end up winning the division, thanks to the Twins' hot final four months), but I'm not convinced that the Brewers are as talented a team as those Tigers. Fielder might keep this up all year (see: Ryan Howard last year), but I think we've started to see the pitching break down a little and the rest of the lineup doesn't scare me the way others around the league might. And frankly I wouldn't be surprised to see Fielder slump somewhere.

Of course you could probably say similar things about the Cubs, and they're the ones who have to play catch-up. But the Soriano-Lee-Ramirez trio has at least as much promise as Fielder and any two teammates you could pick for him, if you ask me, to say nothing of a longer track record. And with the Cubs bullpen improving over the past few weeks - in the last two series, they've allowed just two runs in 16 1/3 innings, and they've only blown one save in June - Milwaukee's biggest advantage has been largely canceled out. Sure, if Milwaukee can just stay even the rest of the way, they'll win the division by seven or eight games. But the Cubs have six games left against the Brewers - all at Wrigley, and Milwaukee has struggled away from Miller Park - and tons of games left against mediocre divisional opposition (though of course the same is true of Milwaukee).

Yes, I'm way too optimistic. But hey - the 2005 Astros were 12 games under in mid-June and double-digits out in the division. They, of course, ended up winning 89 games, the wild card, and the pennant. I'm not sure that 89 games will win you the wild card this year - but low 90s will probably win the division, and the Cubs were never as bad as the Astros were. And hey - that team only had one 100-RBI guy. The top of the rotation was better - Oswalt, Pettitte, and Clemens - but the back (Brandon Backe, Wandy Rodriguez) was decidedly worse.

I hate getting my hopes up with the Cubs, because they always find a way to break my heart. But with all the talent on this team - maybe the most talented Cubs team of my lifetime, top to bottom - maybe this time can be a little different.