Bullshit pen

I can't say I was especially optimistic before this season. The big offseason acquisition was Marlon Byrd, a career 98 OPS+er with a history of being unable to stay on the field. On the one hand, the pieces from the dominant '08 team were almost all still in place and many (Soto, Soriano, Ramirez) were candidates for rebound years; on the other hand, all were also two years older. Soto is the only everyday player under 30. Etc.

Yet so far, things haven't been quite as bad as maybe one would think. Derrek Lee has once again started strong. Byrd and Ramirez have three home runs each, even if they haven't hit much else yet. Soto hasn't really started hitting yet but he is getting on base. Fukudome is off to another pretty good start (although today he went 0-for-5 and struck out three times).

More importantly, the starting pitching has kept the Cubs in almost every game. In nine games so far, Cubs starters have five quality starts. Ryan Dempster and Randy Wells have both looked pretty good, and Carlos Silva and Tom Gorzelanny both had surprisingly effective outings in the Cincinnati series. Carlos Zambrano has been up and down so far, but he is 1-0 with a no-decision since the Opening Day debacle. No, the real problem here... is the bullpen.

You already know this, of course. Last year's Cubs bullpen wasn't exactly stellar. Angel Guzman was a revelation, but of course he's now injured. Kevin Gregg disappointed, perhaps predictably. Nobody liked seeing Aaron Heilman enter a game. Jeff Samardzija went from his seemingly revelatory August 2008 to a 7.53 ERA, which included a handful of mostly awful starts. The David Patton experiment was a complete train wreck. The team's total ERA was 3.84 even though the ERAs of the top four starters were 3.05, 3.10, 3.64 and 3.77.

So the bullpen was mostly turned over. Heilman is gone. Gregg is in Toronto. Carlos Marmol, coming off his iffiest year yet, was handed the closer's job that he should have been given in '09 and has so far thrived - granted, it's only been four games, but in 4.1 innings he's struck out nine, walked just two (and hit one), and allowed a single hit and no runs. Time will tell if he's going to be the shutdown closer we all thought he would eventually be following his 2007 season, but he's off to a good start.

The rest of the pen? Well, it features a lot of guys you haven't heard of but who have one thing in common: they probably don't belong in a major league bullpen.

Here is the list of players who have appeared in a relief role for the Cubs this season, by innings pitched:

Sean Marshall (6.0)
Carlos Marmol (4.1)
John Grabow (3.2)
James Russell (3.1)
Jeff Samardzija (3.1)
Esmailin Caridad (2.2)
Justin Berg (2.1)
Jeff Gray (1.0)

I suspect a lot of Cubs fans have only heard of three or four of these guys. I believe James Russell came over in the DeRosa trade, but that's all I know about him, if that's even right. Jeff Gray used to be an Athletic, which I only know because he's wearing an A's hat in his ESPN.com profile photo. I think Caridad and Berg are Cubs farmhands. That's all I know, pretty much. And I typically follow baseball pretty closely.

Oh, and here are the ERAs of these players:

Marshall: 1.50
Marmol: 0.00
Grabow: 9.82
Russell: 0.00
Samardzija: 16.20
Caridad: 13.50
Berg: 7.71
Gray: 18.00

Well, say this much: at least (Grabow excepted) it's pretty much gone in the right order.

Just to make this as long and obnoxious as possible, here's a quick breakdown of EVERY INNING the Cubs bullpen has pitched so far this year. You might sense a pattern forming.

Cubs @ Braves, 4/5/10, bottom 2: Sean Marshall comes in and records two outs.
Cubs @ Braves, 4/5/10, bottom 3: Sean Marshall 1-2-3 inning.
Cubs @ Braves, 4/5/10, bottom 4: Sean Marshall 1-2-3 inning.
Cubs @ Braves, 4/5/10, bottom 5: James Russell allows a single, no runs.
Cubs @ Braves, 4/5/10, bottom 6: James Russell allows a single, no runs.
Cubs @ Braves, 4/5/10, bottom 7: Jeff Samardzija walks the bases loaded and is eventually charged with six runs, four earned, while recording a single out. Justin Berg gets the last two outs (while also giving up a single allowing his inherited runner to score). The Braves bat around in this inning and turn the game from 8-5 to 14-5.
Cubs @ Braves, 4/5/10, bottom 8: Berg's turn to walk the bases loaded while getting just one out and giving up two more runs for the 16-5 final. John Grabow has to get the last two outs.

Cubs @ Braves, 4/7/10, bottom 7: Sean Marshall 1-2-3 inning.
Cubs @ Braves, 4/7/10, bottom 8: With the Cubs up one and one out, John Grabow gives up a double followed by a home run to put the Braves up 3-2 (the score they win by). Esmailin Caridad gets the inning's last out.

Cubs @ Braves, 4/8/10, bottom 7: Sean Marshall gets two outs and Esmailin Caridad finishes the 1-2-3 inning.
Cubs @ Braves, 4/8/10, bottom 8: Caridad gets two outs but gives up a single. John Grabow comes in and immediately walks the tying run aboard. Carlos Marmol enters and ends the inning with a groundout.
Cubs @ Braves, 4/8/10, bottom 9: Marmol gives up a single and a walk but allows no runs to get the save, striking out two.

Cubs @ Reds, 4/9/10, bottom 7: Justin Berg 1-2-3 inning.
Cubs @ Reds, 4/9/10, bottom 8: Esmailin Caridad loads the bases with no outs thanks to two walks and a bunt single, then gives up a grand slam to someone called "Drew Stubbs." The Cubs go from up 3-1 to down 5-3. Caridad proceeds to record three straight outs, proving that the magic was in him all along!

Cubs @ Reds, 4/10/10, bottom 8: John Grabow gives up one single but is otherwise unscathed.
Cubs @ Reds, 4/10/10, bottom 9: Carlos Marmol 1-2-3 inning (strikes out the side) for the save.

Cubs @ Reds, 4/11/10, bottom 7: Tom Gorzelanny, previously cruising, loads the bases with one out and gets pulled in favor of Sean Marshall. A run scores on a weak infield single, but Marshall strikes out the next two to end the inning with the score tied at 1.
Cubs @ Reds, 4/11/10, bottom 8: John Grabow loads the bases with one out. Esmailin Caridad comes in and walks in the go-ahead run, then gives up a sac fly for good measure. James Russell enters to get the the final out.

Cubs v. Brewers, 4/12/10, top 7: Ryan Dempster leaves with one out and a man on third. James Russell strikes out two of the next three batters, though he does allow a single that scores the inherited runner.
Cubs v. Brewers, 4/12/10, top 8: Jeff Samardzija 1-2-3 inning (his first as a reliever since September 2008!).
Cubs v. Brewers, 4/12/10, top 9: Not Carlos Marmol's neatest finish - walk, strikeout, HBP, double play - but no runs and a game finished (four-run lead, no save).

Cubs v. Brewers, 4/14/10, top 7: With one out, one on and the Cubs down two, Justin Berg and James Russell record an out each to end the threat.
Cubs v. Brewers, 4/14/10, top 8: Jeff Gray (called up in place of the now-injured Caridad) makes his first and to date only appearance, going out, single, RBI triple, RBI triple, walk, double play.
Cubs v. Brewers, 4/14/10, top 9: After the Cubs miraculously score four runs to take the lead in the bottom of the eighth after being down to their last strike of the inning, Carlos Marmol strikes out the side for his third save.

Cubs v. Brewers, 4/15/10, top 6: Sean Marshall loads the bases with one out, but at least holds Milwaukee to a sac fly (though one that gives them the lead at the time).
Cubs v. Brewers, 4/15/10, top 7: With the game tied again, Jeff Samardzija gets two quick outs, then gives up a walk, a stolen base and the go-ahead single before ending the inning.
Cubs v. Brewers, 4/15/10, top 8: Samardzija allows a home run to make it 7-5 Brewers but at least gets out of the inning with nothing more than a walk after that.
Cubs v. Brewers, 4/15/10, top 9: The Brewers score another run off John Grabow without ever getting the ball out of the infield - infield single, sac bunt (man reaches on a Grabow error), groundout, groundout, run-scoring infield single, HBP, fielder's choice to end the inning.

So let's do a quick count:

Innings in which the bullpen got at least one out: 28
Innings in which the bullpen did not allow a man they faced to reach: 10 (36%)
Innings, of those, pitched exclusively by Sean Marshall or Carlos Marmol: 6 (60%)
Innings in which the bullpen allowed at least one run to score (including inherited runners): 12 (43%)
Losses, of the Cubs' five, which the bullpen was directly responsible for: 4 (80%)

To sum things up, if the Cubs had a better bullpen they could be like 7-2 and in first place right now, they will allow someone to at least reach base nearly two-thirds of the time, and they are closing on allowing runs in half the innings they pitch.

In fact, of the 49 runs the Cubs have allowed in nine games, 22 - 45% of the total runs allowed! - have been charged to the bullpen. What percentage of the Cubs' innings has the bullpen pitched? Well, it's not 45%, I can tell you that. It is, in fact, 35%. 45% of the runs in 35% of the innings.

Of course, you don't need me, or all this, to tell you the bullpen sucks. So, what's to be done?

1. Can we please end the Jeff Samardzija thing already?

I get it. They spent a lot of money to tempt him away from football and so felt like they had to rush him to the pros, and now they feel like they have to keep him. But the bare fact is this: since the start of the 2009 season, he has given up 35 earned runs in 38 innings. He isn't good right now and I think it's pretty clear that he isn't learning how to pitch on the big club. I know it's hard because he's making $3 million - an obscene amount for someone so unaccomplished; Carlos Marmol is making $2.125 million this year, by comparison - on top of the huge signing bonus he got. But he SUCKS. Is this about trying to be right, Hendry, or is it about trying to win ball games? Oh, yeah.

2. John Grabow: mistake.

If there's one thing Jim Hendry likes it's pitching well for the Cubs for a month. Besides Samardzija's apparently unrepeatable 2008, there was Grabow coming from Pittsburgh in an attempt to shore up the bullpen last year. It didn't really work, but Grabow pitched well enough (3.24 ERA in 25 innings) and hey, he's a lefty. So Hendry signed him for two years, $7.5 million. John Grabow, who might pitch like 80 innings, makes more than the starting shortstop, the two second basemen combined... he makes nearly two million more than Sean Marshall, who is also a lefty and is a much better pitcher. Next year he'll make almost five million dollars, which will make him one of the highest paid non-closer relief pitchers in baseball. Oh, and he's already lost the Cubs two games this season and only once in six appearances has he simply recorded the outs he was tasked with and allowed nothing more. Hey, I'm left-handed - can I have a couple million to be bad at pitching?

Of course, that doesn't really answer the question of what's to be done. The sad answer is "nothing, because he was signed to a ridiculously expensive contract relative to his role and no one is going to want him unless the Cubs eat a bunch of the money and I think we've seen them make enough trades like that recently."

3. Call up Andrew Cashner.

The guy's already been to college - how much more seasoning could he need? I'm going to say without hesitating that he's better than Jeff Samardzija right now. He's got 20 Ks in just 10.1 minor league innings this year. Yes, his ERA is 4.35, but he also won't be starting in the pros - give him the 8th inning, right now, and see what he can do. I mean, why wouldn't you? Right now the bullpen is costing you games left and right. This could very well be the last year in this window for the Cubs - if indeed the window is still open at all - so you might as well take a couple risks to try and improve the team.

If I'm Lou Piniella, I'm pretty frustrated right now. It must be awful to be in a close game and have to pull your starter, knowing that half the time, whoever you call from the pen is going to give up some runs. (Take away Marmol's four game-finishing innings, all ninth innings with the Cubs ahead, and the bullpen allowed runs in 12 of 24 innings in which it appeared. Boom, 50%.) So what do you think, Jim? Can we take a chance on getting Lou some help in the pen? And I don't mean doing something stupid like trading Jose Ceda for Kevin Gregg.