As I write this, my mood is elevated. Carlos Silva is continuing to defy the odds and/or prove that the NL really is that much worse than the AL. Alfonso Soriano is 3-for-3 with a home run. The Cubs lead the Mets 5-1 in the 7th and look like they might actually win a game after losing four straight to the Mets and Astros, arguably the two worst teams in the NL at this exact moment (and not counting the Cubs).
Still, all is not right in Cub World. Today it was announced that when Ted Lilly returned, the starter moving to the bullpen would not be Carlos Silva or Tom Gorzelanny. It would, instead, be purported ace and 18-million-dollar man Carlos Zambrano. This decision irked me, to put it mildly.
This is not to say that Zambrano has been pitching great; his ERA is 7.45 and in fact he's allowed more earned runs (16) than Dempster, Gorzelanny, Silva and Wells combined (15). With that said, he's made more starts than anyone else on the team, with four already, and only one of them was notably awful (the Opening Day 8 ER in 1.1 IP debacle). In fact, two of the other three were quality starts and his K/9 and K/BB are at historic highs. He hasn't pitched in the bullpen since 2002. Oh, and he makes eighteen million dollars. To give you some perspective, the highest-paid relief pitcher is Mariano Rivera at 15 million; the highest-paid non-closer is Fernando Rodney at a mere 5.5 million. Also bear in mind that despite his poor start, Z is most likely to return to his career average, which is 3.56. He's never had an ERA over 3.95 in a full season. By comparison, Gorzelanny's career ERA is 4.80 and Silva's is 4.67. I know I complained about the bullpen needing to be fixed, but this wasn't exactly what I was talking about.
Do you start to wonder if maybe Piniella and Hendry just don't have a clue what they're doing? Because I do. When Piniella came in, people thought he was a potential savior. He was a big name and he'd had success. So we all overlooked things. He won a World Series! (In 1990, and hadn't even been to one since.) He won 116 games with the Mariners! (They didn't even get to the World Series that year.) His Tampa teams were lousy... but that wasn't his fault. And when the Cubs won the division in 2007 and then 97 games and another division title in 2008 for their first back-to-back playoff appearances in 100 years... who could say Piniella wasn't a great manager?
But I've heard it said that managers don't do as much to win games as they can do to lose them. The players will play and win without the manager, but the manager can make dumb decisions that compromise the players' ability to win. And you have to wonder about Piniella a little bit. I mean, he honestly thinks that putting Zambrano in the bullpen is the best thing for the club. I like to think that if another starter struggles Z will be back in the rotation... but I don't know. Piniella seems like a pretty old-school baseball guy, the type who plays hunches and judges players by the look in their eye and thinks that Joba Chamberlain is more valuable pitching 60 innings a year than 180. He gave Tom Gorzelanny the starting job over Sean Marshall even though Marshall is pretty much inarguably a better pitcher. He can't decide where to hit Ryan Theriot. He has, in the past, seriously suggested trying to play Soriano at second again even though Soriano has spent less than four innings at the position since 2005.
But then I wonder how much of it is really Lou's fault. I mean, I'm not convinced he's a great manager. But isn't he doing pretty much the best he can with the pieces he's been handed? And then I think about Jim Hendry, and how I'm pretty sure he's a lousy GM. I did a post in June of 2007 on Hendry's GM tenure as a trader, concluding that he had been basically average, at least if by average you meant that he'd basically made as many bad deals as good ones (though I would argue that his two best trades to that point, for Ramirez and Lee, pretty much outweighed all the bad ones with the exception of the Juan Pierre deal). I think that's pretty much still true - the Kevin Gregg deal was lousy, but the Rich Harden one was pretty good, at least from the standpoint that no one traded away in it has done anything for Oakland (in fact, only Eric Patterson plays for their major league team, and not well - Sean Gallagher is mopping up for the Padres and Matt Murton currently plays in Japan). Et cetera.
Of course, Hendry has been pretty lousy when it comes to free agents. His major signings since taking over the GM job in July of 2002, from oldest to most recent:
Mike Remlinger
Shawn Estes
LaTroy Hawkins
Todd Walker
Ryan Dempster
Greg Maddux
Glendon Rusch
Neifi Perez
Henry Blanco
Jeromy Burnitz
Scott Eyre
Bob Howry
Jacque Jones
Mark DeRosa
Alfonso Soriano
Ted Lilly
Daryle Ward
Jason Marquis
Cliff Floyd
Kosuke Fukudome
Jon Lieber
Reed Johnson
Jim Edmonds
Aaron Miles
Milton Bradley
Marlon Byrd
Xavier Nady
Granted, calling some of those "major signings" may be a stretch - Ward, for instance, had 212 at-bats over two seasons with the Cubs. But I included everyone I thought had made a difference to the Cubs, either positively or negatively; guys like, say, Chad Fox, I didn't bother counting because they were so insignificant overall (though Hendry's love affair with Fox could be another whole post). The point is, look at that list. Now tell me, who on it was an unqualified success as a signing? I vote for the following: Walker, Dempster, DeRosa, Lilly, Johnson, Edmonds. Six out of 27 (though granted the jury is still out on Byrd and Nady, technically). Now, who was an unqualified disaster? I vote for Hawkins, Perez, Jones, Miles and Bradley. That's only five, but really, isn't a ratio that close pretty lousy? Plus a lot of people would probably argue I was being generous with Soriano and Fukudome (mostly due to the size of their contracts), and potentially Marquis as well.
You also have to consider JUST HOW awful the Perez, Miles and Bradley signings were. Perez is one of the worst baseball players of all time. In 2002 for the Royals, his OPS+ was 44. The next year in San Francisco, it was 65. In 2004, it was 48, and the Giants had finally had enough and released him. The Cubs snapped him up for some reason, and over a tiny, tiny stretch sample of 23 games, he hit .371/.400/.548. So they brought him back for 2005, and he turned back into a pumpkin with a .274/.298/.383 line. Yet Hendry re-signed him for 2006, possibly because Dusty Baker loved Neifi for no good reason and insisted on hitting him first or second a lot of the time and giving him 609 PAs. No wonder the '05 team couldn't finish .500 even though Derrek Lee had an MVP-type season. (And no wonder Lee only had 107 RBI despite hitting 46 home runs - Neifi and Corey Patterson had a combined 1,090 plate appearances, many in the leadoff and 2nd spots, despite a combined OBP of .275.) He continued to suck in 2006, and was finally, mercifully traded to the Tigers in August.
Miles was coming off a career year for the Cardinals in 2008, with a .317/.355/.398 line. He was intended to be a cheaper Mark DeRosa, in that he could play a lot of different positions but for less money. As it turned out, there was a reason he was cheaper. Miles' line for the Cubs: .185/.224/.242, for an OPS+ of 20, which makes Neifi Perez look like fucking Ernie Banks.
A lot has been said about Bradley already, and there's no real need to rehash it here. His year for the Cubs could have been worse: .257/.378/.397. Bradley later complained the Cubs had expected him to hit home runs, and that since his career high was 22, this was misguided. This is probably true, but Bradley's below-.400 SLG (his first since 2001) shows that he wasn't hitting with power at all. Of his 101 Cub hits, just 30 went for extra bases (17 doubles, a triple, and 12 homers).
But what the Bradley signing really said to me was that Hendry just wasn't paying attention. The whole point behind the Bradley signing was that the Cubs wanted a left-handed-hitting outfielder, since Kosuke Fukudome hadn't fully panned out in 2008. Bradley, a switch-hitter, would surely fit the bill after he punched up a .436 OBP to lead the AL in 2008. This completely ignored:
1. that Bradley had mostly played DH in 2008
2. that even when mostly playing DH he had trouble staying healthy
3. perhaps most importantly, that Bradley was a better right-handed batter than left
Bradley, for his career, hits .264/.364/.430 as a lefty and .303/.384/.492 as a righty. This was the lefty bat we were missing? A corner outfielder who slugs .430 and can't stay on the field? Bradley may not have had as bad a season as some would paint it, and it may not have been his fault that he couldn't meet the inflated expectations - but the point is that for what Hendry was thinking he was going to get, it was clearly a botched signing.
So who's to blame for the mess the 2010 Cubs are in? Hendry has handed out huge contracts to aging players and has shown an alarming tendency to pillage an already thin farm system to obtain guys who aren't that good to begin with. Piniella has made some head-scratching decisions, but to the extent that he affects the games, he's only as good as what he has to work with. I just pray that Hendry doesn't ruin the 2014 Cubs' chances by trading Starlin Castro or Josh Vitters for Heath Bell or something stupid like that.
Wednesday, April 21, 2010
Thursday, April 15, 2010
Bullshit pen
I can't say I was especially optimistic before this season. The big offseason acquisition was Marlon Byrd, a career 98 OPS+er with a history of being unable to stay on the field. On the one hand, the pieces from the dominant '08 team were almost all still in place and many (Soto, Soriano, Ramirez) were candidates for rebound years; on the other hand, all were also two years older. Soto is the only everyday player under 30. Etc.
Yet so far, things haven't been quite as bad as maybe one would think. Derrek Lee has once again started strong. Byrd and Ramirez have three home runs each, even if they haven't hit much else yet. Soto hasn't really started hitting yet but he is getting on base. Fukudome is off to another pretty good start (although today he went 0-for-5 and struck out three times).
More importantly, the starting pitching has kept the Cubs in almost every game. In nine games so far, Cubs starters have five quality starts. Ryan Dempster and Randy Wells have both looked pretty good, and Carlos Silva and Tom Gorzelanny both had surprisingly effective outings in the Cincinnati series. Carlos Zambrano has been up and down so far, but he is 1-0 with a no-decision since the Opening Day debacle. No, the real problem here... is the bullpen.
You already know this, of course. Last year's Cubs bullpen wasn't exactly stellar. Angel Guzman was a revelation, but of course he's now injured. Kevin Gregg disappointed, perhaps predictably. Nobody liked seeing Aaron Heilman enter a game. Jeff Samardzija went from his seemingly revelatory August 2008 to a 7.53 ERA, which included a handful of mostly awful starts. The David Patton experiment was a complete train wreck. The team's total ERA was 3.84 even though the ERAs of the top four starters were 3.05, 3.10, 3.64 and 3.77.
So the bullpen was mostly turned over. Heilman is gone. Gregg is in Toronto. Carlos Marmol, coming off his iffiest year yet, was handed the closer's job that he should have been given in '09 and has so far thrived - granted, it's only been four games, but in 4.1 innings he's struck out nine, walked just two (and hit one), and allowed a single hit and no runs. Time will tell if he's going to be the shutdown closer we all thought he would eventually be following his 2007 season, but he's off to a good start.
The rest of the pen? Well, it features a lot of guys you haven't heard of but who have one thing in common: they probably don't belong in a major league bullpen.
Here is the list of players who have appeared in a relief role for the Cubs this season, by innings pitched:
Sean Marshall (6.0)
Carlos Marmol (4.1)
John Grabow (3.2)
James Russell (3.1)
Jeff Samardzija (3.1)
Esmailin Caridad (2.2)
Justin Berg (2.1)
Jeff Gray (1.0)
I suspect a lot of Cubs fans have only heard of three or four of these guys. I believe James Russell came over in the DeRosa trade, but that's all I know about him, if that's even right. Jeff Gray used to be an Athletic, which I only know because he's wearing an A's hat in his ESPN.com profile photo. I think Caridad and Berg are Cubs farmhands. That's all I know, pretty much. And I typically follow baseball pretty closely.
Oh, and here are the ERAs of these players:
Marshall: 1.50
Marmol: 0.00
Grabow: 9.82
Russell: 0.00
Samardzija: 16.20
Caridad: 13.50
Berg: 7.71
Gray: 18.00
Well, say this much: at least (Grabow excepted) it's pretty much gone in the right order.
Just to make this as long and obnoxious as possible, here's a quick breakdown of EVERY INNING the Cubs bullpen has pitched so far this year. You might sense a pattern forming.
Cubs @ Braves, 4/5/10, bottom 2: Sean Marshall comes in and records two outs.
Cubs @ Braves, 4/5/10, bottom 3: Sean Marshall 1-2-3 inning.
Cubs @ Braves, 4/5/10, bottom 4: Sean Marshall 1-2-3 inning.
Cubs @ Braves, 4/5/10, bottom 5: James Russell allows a single, no runs.
Cubs @ Braves, 4/5/10, bottom 6: James Russell allows a single, no runs.
Cubs @ Braves, 4/5/10, bottom 7: Jeff Samardzija walks the bases loaded and is eventually charged with six runs, four earned, while recording a single out. Justin Berg gets the last two outs (while also giving up a single allowing his inherited runner to score). The Braves bat around in this inning and turn the game from 8-5 to 14-5.
Cubs @ Braves, 4/5/10, bottom 8: Berg's turn to walk the bases loaded while getting just one out and giving up two more runs for the 16-5 final. John Grabow has to get the last two outs.
Cubs @ Braves, 4/7/10, bottom 7: Sean Marshall 1-2-3 inning.
Cubs @ Braves, 4/7/10, bottom 8: With the Cubs up one and one out, John Grabow gives up a double followed by a home run to put the Braves up 3-2 (the score they win by). Esmailin Caridad gets the inning's last out.
Cubs @ Braves, 4/8/10, bottom 7: Sean Marshall gets two outs and Esmailin Caridad finishes the 1-2-3 inning.
Cubs @ Braves, 4/8/10, bottom 8: Caridad gets two outs but gives up a single. John Grabow comes in and immediately walks the tying run aboard. Carlos Marmol enters and ends the inning with a groundout.
Cubs @ Braves, 4/8/10, bottom 9: Marmol gives up a single and a walk but allows no runs to get the save, striking out two.
Cubs @ Reds, 4/9/10, bottom 7: Justin Berg 1-2-3 inning.
Cubs @ Reds, 4/9/10, bottom 8: Esmailin Caridad loads the bases with no outs thanks to two walks and a bunt single, then gives up a grand slam to someone called "Drew Stubbs." The Cubs go from up 3-1 to down 5-3. Caridad proceeds to record three straight outs, proving that the magic was in him all along!
Cubs @ Reds, 4/10/10, bottom 8: John Grabow gives up one single but is otherwise unscathed.
Cubs @ Reds, 4/10/10, bottom 9: Carlos Marmol 1-2-3 inning (strikes out the side) for the save.
Cubs @ Reds, 4/11/10, bottom 7: Tom Gorzelanny, previously cruising, loads the bases with one out and gets pulled in favor of Sean Marshall. A run scores on a weak infield single, but Marshall strikes out the next two to end the inning with the score tied at 1.
Cubs @ Reds, 4/11/10, bottom 8: John Grabow loads the bases with one out. Esmailin Caridad comes in and walks in the go-ahead run, then gives up a sac fly for good measure. James Russell enters to get the the final out.
Cubs v. Brewers, 4/12/10, top 7: Ryan Dempster leaves with one out and a man on third. James Russell strikes out two of the next three batters, though he does allow a single that scores the inherited runner.
Cubs v. Brewers, 4/12/10, top 8: Jeff Samardzija 1-2-3 inning (his first as a reliever since September 2008!).
Cubs v. Brewers, 4/12/10, top 9: Not Carlos Marmol's neatest finish - walk, strikeout, HBP, double play - but no runs and a game finished (four-run lead, no save).
Cubs v. Brewers, 4/14/10, top 7: With one out, one on and the Cubs down two, Justin Berg and James Russell record an out each to end the threat.
Cubs v. Brewers, 4/14/10, top 8: Jeff Gray (called up in place of the now-injured Caridad) makes his first and to date only appearance, going out, single, RBI triple, RBI triple, walk, double play.
Cubs v. Brewers, 4/14/10, top 9: After the Cubs miraculously score four runs to take the lead in the bottom of the eighth after being down to their last strike of the inning, Carlos Marmol strikes out the side for his third save.
Cubs v. Brewers, 4/15/10, top 6: Sean Marshall loads the bases with one out, but at least holds Milwaukee to a sac fly (though one that gives them the lead at the time).
Cubs v. Brewers, 4/15/10, top 7: With the game tied again, Jeff Samardzija gets two quick outs, then gives up a walk, a stolen base and the go-ahead single before ending the inning.
Cubs v. Brewers, 4/15/10, top 8: Samardzija allows a home run to make it 7-5 Brewers but at least gets out of the inning with nothing more than a walk after that.
Cubs v. Brewers, 4/15/10, top 9: The Brewers score another run off John Grabow without ever getting the ball out of the infield - infield single, sac bunt (man reaches on a Grabow error), groundout, groundout, run-scoring infield single, HBP, fielder's choice to end the inning.
So let's do a quick count:
Innings in which the bullpen got at least one out: 28
Innings in which the bullpen did not allow a man they faced to reach: 10 (36%)
Innings, of those, pitched exclusively by Sean Marshall or Carlos Marmol: 6 (60%)
Innings in which the bullpen allowed at least one run to score (including inherited runners): 12 (43%)
Losses, of the Cubs' five, which the bullpen was directly responsible for: 4 (80%)
To sum things up, if the Cubs had a better bullpen they could be like 7-2 and in first place right now, they will allow someone to at least reach base nearly two-thirds of the time, and they are closing on allowing runs in half the innings they pitch.
In fact, of the 49 runs the Cubs have allowed in nine games, 22 - 45% of the total runs allowed! - have been charged to the bullpen. What percentage of the Cubs' innings has the bullpen pitched? Well, it's not 45%, I can tell you that. It is, in fact, 35%. 45% of the runs in 35% of the innings.
Of course, you don't need me, or all this, to tell you the bullpen sucks. So, what's to be done?
1. Can we please end the Jeff Samardzija thing already?
I get it. They spent a lot of money to tempt him away from football and so felt like they had to rush him to the pros, and now they feel like they have to keep him. But the bare fact is this: since the start of the 2009 season, he has given up 35 earned runs in 38 innings. He isn't good right now and I think it's pretty clear that he isn't learning how to pitch on the big club. I know it's hard because he's making $3 million - an obscene amount for someone so unaccomplished; Carlos Marmol is making $2.125 million this year, by comparison - on top of the huge signing bonus he got. But he SUCKS. Is this about trying to be right, Hendry, or is it about trying to win ball games? Oh, yeah.
2. John Grabow: mistake.
If there's one thing Jim Hendry likes it's pitching well for the Cubs for a month. Besides Samardzija's apparently unrepeatable 2008, there was Grabow coming from Pittsburgh in an attempt to shore up the bullpen last year. It didn't really work, but Grabow pitched well enough (3.24 ERA in 25 innings) and hey, he's a lefty. So Hendry signed him for two years, $7.5 million. John Grabow, who might pitch like 80 innings, makes more than the starting shortstop, the two second basemen combined... he makes nearly two million more than Sean Marshall, who is also a lefty and is a much better pitcher. Next year he'll make almost five million dollars, which will make him one of the highest paid non-closer relief pitchers in baseball. Oh, and he's already lost the Cubs two games this season and only once in six appearances has he simply recorded the outs he was tasked with and allowed nothing more. Hey, I'm left-handed - can I have a couple million to be bad at pitching?
Of course, that doesn't really answer the question of what's to be done. The sad answer is "nothing, because he was signed to a ridiculously expensive contract relative to his role and no one is going to want him unless the Cubs eat a bunch of the money and I think we've seen them make enough trades like that recently."
3. Call up Andrew Cashner.
The guy's already been to college - how much more seasoning could he need? I'm going to say without hesitating that he's better than Jeff Samardzija right now. He's got 20 Ks in just 10.1 minor league innings this year. Yes, his ERA is 4.35, but he also won't be starting in the pros - give him the 8th inning, right now, and see what he can do. I mean, why wouldn't you? Right now the bullpen is costing you games left and right. This could very well be the last year in this window for the Cubs - if indeed the window is still open at all - so you might as well take a couple risks to try and improve the team.
If I'm Lou Piniella, I'm pretty frustrated right now. It must be awful to be in a close game and have to pull your starter, knowing that half the time, whoever you call from the pen is going to give up some runs. (Take away Marmol's four game-finishing innings, all ninth innings with the Cubs ahead, and the bullpen allowed runs in 12 of 24 innings in which it appeared. Boom, 50%.) So what do you think, Jim? Can we take a chance on getting Lou some help in the pen? And I don't mean doing something stupid like trading Jose Ceda for Kevin Gregg.
Yet so far, things haven't been quite as bad as maybe one would think. Derrek Lee has once again started strong. Byrd and Ramirez have three home runs each, even if they haven't hit much else yet. Soto hasn't really started hitting yet but he is getting on base. Fukudome is off to another pretty good start (although today he went 0-for-5 and struck out three times).
More importantly, the starting pitching has kept the Cubs in almost every game. In nine games so far, Cubs starters have five quality starts. Ryan Dempster and Randy Wells have both looked pretty good, and Carlos Silva and Tom Gorzelanny both had surprisingly effective outings in the Cincinnati series. Carlos Zambrano has been up and down so far, but he is 1-0 with a no-decision since the Opening Day debacle. No, the real problem here... is the bullpen.
You already know this, of course. Last year's Cubs bullpen wasn't exactly stellar. Angel Guzman was a revelation, but of course he's now injured. Kevin Gregg disappointed, perhaps predictably. Nobody liked seeing Aaron Heilman enter a game. Jeff Samardzija went from his seemingly revelatory August 2008 to a 7.53 ERA, which included a handful of mostly awful starts. The David Patton experiment was a complete train wreck. The team's total ERA was 3.84 even though the ERAs of the top four starters were 3.05, 3.10, 3.64 and 3.77.
So the bullpen was mostly turned over. Heilman is gone. Gregg is in Toronto. Carlos Marmol, coming off his iffiest year yet, was handed the closer's job that he should have been given in '09 and has so far thrived - granted, it's only been four games, but in 4.1 innings he's struck out nine, walked just two (and hit one), and allowed a single hit and no runs. Time will tell if he's going to be the shutdown closer we all thought he would eventually be following his 2007 season, but he's off to a good start.
The rest of the pen? Well, it features a lot of guys you haven't heard of but who have one thing in common: they probably don't belong in a major league bullpen.
Here is the list of players who have appeared in a relief role for the Cubs this season, by innings pitched:
Sean Marshall (6.0)
Carlos Marmol (4.1)
John Grabow (3.2)
James Russell (3.1)
Jeff Samardzija (3.1)
Esmailin Caridad (2.2)
Justin Berg (2.1)
Jeff Gray (1.0)
I suspect a lot of Cubs fans have only heard of three or four of these guys. I believe James Russell came over in the DeRosa trade, but that's all I know about him, if that's even right. Jeff Gray used to be an Athletic, which I only know because he's wearing an A's hat in his ESPN.com profile photo. I think Caridad and Berg are Cubs farmhands. That's all I know, pretty much. And I typically follow baseball pretty closely.
Oh, and here are the ERAs of these players:
Marshall: 1.50
Marmol: 0.00
Grabow: 9.82
Russell: 0.00
Samardzija: 16.20
Caridad: 13.50
Berg: 7.71
Gray: 18.00
Well, say this much: at least (Grabow excepted) it's pretty much gone in the right order.
Just to make this as long and obnoxious as possible, here's a quick breakdown of EVERY INNING the Cubs bullpen has pitched so far this year. You might sense a pattern forming.
Cubs @ Braves, 4/5/10, bottom 2: Sean Marshall comes in and records two outs.
Cubs @ Braves, 4/5/10, bottom 3: Sean Marshall 1-2-3 inning.
Cubs @ Braves, 4/5/10, bottom 4: Sean Marshall 1-2-3 inning.
Cubs @ Braves, 4/5/10, bottom 5: James Russell allows a single, no runs.
Cubs @ Braves, 4/5/10, bottom 6: James Russell allows a single, no runs.
Cubs @ Braves, 4/5/10, bottom 7: Jeff Samardzija walks the bases loaded and is eventually charged with six runs, four earned, while recording a single out. Justin Berg gets the last two outs (while also giving up a single allowing his inherited runner to score). The Braves bat around in this inning and turn the game from 8-5 to 14-5.
Cubs @ Braves, 4/5/10, bottom 8: Berg's turn to walk the bases loaded while getting just one out and giving up two more runs for the 16-5 final. John Grabow has to get the last two outs.
Cubs @ Braves, 4/7/10, bottom 7: Sean Marshall 1-2-3 inning.
Cubs @ Braves, 4/7/10, bottom 8: With the Cubs up one and one out, John Grabow gives up a double followed by a home run to put the Braves up 3-2 (the score they win by). Esmailin Caridad gets the inning's last out.
Cubs @ Braves, 4/8/10, bottom 7: Sean Marshall gets two outs and Esmailin Caridad finishes the 1-2-3 inning.
Cubs @ Braves, 4/8/10, bottom 8: Caridad gets two outs but gives up a single. John Grabow comes in and immediately walks the tying run aboard. Carlos Marmol enters and ends the inning with a groundout.
Cubs @ Braves, 4/8/10, bottom 9: Marmol gives up a single and a walk but allows no runs to get the save, striking out two.
Cubs @ Reds, 4/9/10, bottom 7: Justin Berg 1-2-3 inning.
Cubs @ Reds, 4/9/10, bottom 8: Esmailin Caridad loads the bases with no outs thanks to two walks and a bunt single, then gives up a grand slam to someone called "Drew Stubbs." The Cubs go from up 3-1 to down 5-3. Caridad proceeds to record three straight outs, proving that the magic was in him all along!
Cubs @ Reds, 4/10/10, bottom 8: John Grabow gives up one single but is otherwise unscathed.
Cubs @ Reds, 4/10/10, bottom 9: Carlos Marmol 1-2-3 inning (strikes out the side) for the save.
Cubs @ Reds, 4/11/10, bottom 7: Tom Gorzelanny, previously cruising, loads the bases with one out and gets pulled in favor of Sean Marshall. A run scores on a weak infield single, but Marshall strikes out the next two to end the inning with the score tied at 1.
Cubs @ Reds, 4/11/10, bottom 8: John Grabow loads the bases with one out. Esmailin Caridad comes in and walks in the go-ahead run, then gives up a sac fly for good measure. James Russell enters to get the the final out.
Cubs v. Brewers, 4/12/10, top 7: Ryan Dempster leaves with one out and a man on third. James Russell strikes out two of the next three batters, though he does allow a single that scores the inherited runner.
Cubs v. Brewers, 4/12/10, top 8: Jeff Samardzija 1-2-3 inning (his first as a reliever since September 2008!).
Cubs v. Brewers, 4/12/10, top 9: Not Carlos Marmol's neatest finish - walk, strikeout, HBP, double play - but no runs and a game finished (four-run lead, no save).
Cubs v. Brewers, 4/14/10, top 7: With one out, one on and the Cubs down two, Justin Berg and James Russell record an out each to end the threat.
Cubs v. Brewers, 4/14/10, top 8: Jeff Gray (called up in place of the now-injured Caridad) makes his first and to date only appearance, going out, single, RBI triple, RBI triple, walk, double play.
Cubs v. Brewers, 4/14/10, top 9: After the Cubs miraculously score four runs to take the lead in the bottom of the eighth after being down to their last strike of the inning, Carlos Marmol strikes out the side for his third save.
Cubs v. Brewers, 4/15/10, top 6: Sean Marshall loads the bases with one out, but at least holds Milwaukee to a sac fly (though one that gives them the lead at the time).
Cubs v. Brewers, 4/15/10, top 7: With the game tied again, Jeff Samardzija gets two quick outs, then gives up a walk, a stolen base and the go-ahead single before ending the inning.
Cubs v. Brewers, 4/15/10, top 8: Samardzija allows a home run to make it 7-5 Brewers but at least gets out of the inning with nothing more than a walk after that.
Cubs v. Brewers, 4/15/10, top 9: The Brewers score another run off John Grabow without ever getting the ball out of the infield - infield single, sac bunt (man reaches on a Grabow error), groundout, groundout, run-scoring infield single, HBP, fielder's choice to end the inning.
So let's do a quick count:
Innings in which the bullpen got at least one out: 28
Innings in which the bullpen did not allow a man they faced to reach: 10 (36%)
Innings, of those, pitched exclusively by Sean Marshall or Carlos Marmol: 6 (60%)
Innings in which the bullpen allowed at least one run to score (including inherited runners): 12 (43%)
Losses, of the Cubs' five, which the bullpen was directly responsible for: 4 (80%)
To sum things up, if the Cubs had a better bullpen they could be like 7-2 and in first place right now, they will allow someone to at least reach base nearly two-thirds of the time, and they are closing on allowing runs in half the innings they pitch.
In fact, of the 49 runs the Cubs have allowed in nine games, 22 - 45% of the total runs allowed! - have been charged to the bullpen. What percentage of the Cubs' innings has the bullpen pitched? Well, it's not 45%, I can tell you that. It is, in fact, 35%. 45% of the runs in 35% of the innings.
Of course, you don't need me, or all this, to tell you the bullpen sucks. So, what's to be done?
1. Can we please end the Jeff Samardzija thing already?
I get it. They spent a lot of money to tempt him away from football and so felt like they had to rush him to the pros, and now they feel like they have to keep him. But the bare fact is this: since the start of the 2009 season, he has given up 35 earned runs in 38 innings. He isn't good right now and I think it's pretty clear that he isn't learning how to pitch on the big club. I know it's hard because he's making $3 million - an obscene amount for someone so unaccomplished; Carlos Marmol is making $2.125 million this year, by comparison - on top of the huge signing bonus he got. But he SUCKS. Is this about trying to be right, Hendry, or is it about trying to win ball games? Oh, yeah.
2. John Grabow: mistake.
If there's one thing Jim Hendry likes it's pitching well for the Cubs for a month. Besides Samardzija's apparently unrepeatable 2008, there was Grabow coming from Pittsburgh in an attempt to shore up the bullpen last year. It didn't really work, but Grabow pitched well enough (3.24 ERA in 25 innings) and hey, he's a lefty. So Hendry signed him for two years, $7.5 million. John Grabow, who might pitch like 80 innings, makes more than the starting shortstop, the two second basemen combined... he makes nearly two million more than Sean Marshall, who is also a lefty and is a much better pitcher. Next year he'll make almost five million dollars, which will make him one of the highest paid non-closer relief pitchers in baseball. Oh, and he's already lost the Cubs two games this season and only once in six appearances has he simply recorded the outs he was tasked with and allowed nothing more. Hey, I'm left-handed - can I have a couple million to be bad at pitching?
Of course, that doesn't really answer the question of what's to be done. The sad answer is "nothing, because he was signed to a ridiculously expensive contract relative to his role and no one is going to want him unless the Cubs eat a bunch of the money and I think we've seen them make enough trades like that recently."
3. Call up Andrew Cashner.
The guy's already been to college - how much more seasoning could he need? I'm going to say without hesitating that he's better than Jeff Samardzija right now. He's got 20 Ks in just 10.1 minor league innings this year. Yes, his ERA is 4.35, but he also won't be starting in the pros - give him the 8th inning, right now, and see what he can do. I mean, why wouldn't you? Right now the bullpen is costing you games left and right. This could very well be the last year in this window for the Cubs - if indeed the window is still open at all - so you might as well take a couple risks to try and improve the team.
If I'm Lou Piniella, I'm pretty frustrated right now. It must be awful to be in a close game and have to pull your starter, knowing that half the time, whoever you call from the pen is going to give up some runs. (Take away Marmol's four game-finishing innings, all ninth innings with the Cubs ahead, and the bullpen allowed runs in 12 of 24 innings in which it appeared. Boom, 50%.) So what do you think, Jim? Can we take a chance on getting Lou some help in the pen? And I don't mean doing something stupid like trading Jose Ceda for Kevin Gregg.
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