Sunday, May 24, 2009

Unwatchable, that's what they are

While it's still technically early, and while the 2007 Cubs dug themselves a much deeper early hole, the 2009 season seems to be slipping through our fingers before it could really even get going. The Cubs have followed a season-high five-game winning streak - which brought them to 21-14 and within spitting distance of first place - by losing seven in a row, including a six-game road trip on which they were swept by both St. Louis (somewhat understandable) and San Diego (somewhat unforgivable). Why? Well, it's pretty simple: this team has forgotten how to hit.

The streak has included the Cubs being outscored 28-10. Worse yet, half of those runs came in the first game of the streak, a 6-5 loss to Houston at Wrigley last Sunday. In the six games since, the Cubs have been outscored 22-5. 22 runs in 6 games really isn't that terrible. In fact, in the middle five games of the streak, the Cubs pitchers had an ERA of just 3.15 - but the Cubs only scored three runs in the entire five games in support. As a result, Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster, and Randy Wells were all saddled with losses despite seven-inning quality starts during that stretch.

During the seven games, the Cubs have just 41 hits in 226 at-bats, a team batting average of .181. Take away their 11-hit "barrage" against Houston, and the six road losses featured just 30 hits in 187 at-bats, a team BA of .160. "But Flax," you might say, "batting average doesn't tell you the whole story!" True. The Cubs have walked 10 times in the six games, itself not a huge number - and when I tell you that six of those came in one game, suddenly things look even worse. Three of the six games featured no walks at all. Worse still, the Cubs aren't even putting the ball in play, striking out 56 times in the seven games. That's a strikeout every four at-bats, nearly one per inning.

Who's to blame? It's not any one player, but I'd say the bulk of the fault lies squarely with the table-setters, Soriano and Theriot. In the six road games, Derrek Lee is hitting .368 (7-for-19) with a .400 OBP. Do you know how many RBI he has? One. And it was a solo home run. The problem is that Soriano and Theriot, at the top of the order, have gone a combined 4-for-45 in the past six games (.089), and neither has walked once. Soriano has struck out nine times in 21 at-bats.

Still, nobody's hitting. In the same six games, here's how everyone else is doing: Fukudome .125 (though he's also taken four walks and a hit-by-pitch for a .333 OBP), Bradley .158, Soto .188, Fontenot .235, Miles .100, Scales .100 (though his OBP is .357 because of three walks and an HBP), Hoffpauir .143 (with seven strikeouts in 14 at-bats). In a six-game span, only one guy has more than four hits (Lee with seven), only two guys have reached base more than five times (Lee 8 and Fukudome 7), and only two guys (Scales and Fukudome) have taken more than one walk. Meanwhile, four guys have struck out at least five times (Soriano 9, Hoffpauir 7, Fukudome 6, Soto 5). It's ugly.

What now? The Cubs are severely limited as far as possible changes they can make to the team - I don't know that there's anyone like a Jim Edmonds last year who could possibly be brought in. People are talking about Jake Fox, who's tearing up the PCL - but it's still the PCL. Fox is apparently a guy who either homers or strikes out, and we've already got Soriano and Hoffpauir, plus Fox can't really play anywhere but first base with anything resembling acceptable defense. As far as outside help, who's there? And perhaps more to the point, who can be replaced? The outfield makes too much to be movable. The only real open space on the infield is second base, perhaps the shallowest position in the game from a hitting perspective. You're not going to fill that spot with anything better than what's already there. And the Cubs' options for trades are limited anyway given how thin the farm system is.

Of course, we should remember that a seven-game losing streak - while it sucks - is hardly cause to start talking about blowing up the team or anything. Lee's bat was cold for weeks without creating significant problems because the rest of the team was hitting better; it seems likely that a team full of professional hitters will be able to turn it around. Still, how much longer can we wait for them to do so? Even the 2007 Cubs never lost more than six in a row. We're not quite at the 2006 Cubs "7-22 in May" point... but even the 2006 Cubs topped out at eight straight losses. Should the Cubs somehow be swept at home by the Pirates - an unlikely occurrence, but at this point I'm ruling nothing out - that would be ten straight losses, the most since the 1997 Cubs lost fourteen straight to start the season (en route to a 68-94 finish). If that happens, I'm going to buy a Bears cap and devote the rest of my summer to miniature golf.

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