Here Comes Your 2009th Nervous Breakdown

Baseball season is finally back. The 2008 Cubs have faded in the rearview mirror, and it's time to see if the new iteration can improve on their result. Let's do a position-by-position look at the '09 Cubs compared to the 97-win squad of '08.

First Base
'08: Derrek Lee (.291/.361/.462, 20 HR, 90 RBI)
'09: Derrek Lee

Lee returns for his sixth season starting at first base for the Cubs, and with the exception of his lost 2006, they've all been at least pretty good. But 2005 looks more and more like a fluke year, and whether or not the wrist injury is responsible for his loss of power, the fact remains that Lee cannot be considered a 30-homer threat until/unless he actually does it again. It's not clear that Lee belongs in the 3-hole at this point of his career, but it seems like he's going to end up there. (Oddly, run simulators seem to suggest that it's beneficial not to put your best hitter in the third slot. So maybe this will work fine.)

Second Base
'08: Mark DeRosa (.285/.376/.481, 21 HR, 87 RBI)
'09: Mike Fontenot

That's right - last year the Cubs got more production from their second baseman than their first baseman. You could certainly argue that the Cubs sold high on DeRosa - he's even older than Lee and only just had his career year? - but it's hard to argue that they couldn't use numbers like that from the middle infield, and his all-purpose utility ways were certainly handy last year. With the potentially fragile Milton Bradley manning right field, maybe it wouldn't have been so bad to keep DeRosa. Fontenot hit in his PAs last year, putting up even higher slashes than DeRo did, and the fact that he's a lefty clearly helped, but a dropoff in production from this position seems inevitable.

Shortstop
'08: Ryan Theriot (.307/.387/.359, 73/58 BB/K, 22/13 SB/CS)
'09: Ryan Theriot

Riot's 2007 28/4 SB/CS ratio clearly made him think he could steal bases; last year took the wind out of those sails. If Theriot can maintain a .300 average and an OBP in the high .300s, that would probably be adequate, especially if he's asked to bat 8th instead of 2nd as he often was last year. Most fielding metrics find him below average at short, and he has less than no power, so he'd better get on base.

Third Base
'08: Aramis Ramirez (.289/.380/.518, 27 HR, 111 RBI)
'09: Aramis Ramirez

Ramirez's 2008 was a little weird - on the one hand, he marked a career high in walks and OBP, but on the other, his slugging was its lowest in five full seasons with the Cubs. Assuming health, 25-30 homers and 100 RBI or more seem likely, especially hitting in the fifth spot, a prime RBI position if Lee and Bradley get on base like they're supposed to. Overall, Rami has been one of the most consistent Cubs of the last few years, and he'll need to maintain that production for this team to win.

Left Field
'08: Alfonso Soriano (.280/.344/.532, 29 HR, 75 RBI)
'09: Alfonso Soriano

As always, the key to Soriano will be his health. Last year he smacked 29 homers despite playing in just 109 games, which equals 43 over a full season. Another broken hand seems unlikely (knock on wood), but we could certainly see more of the nagging injuries that limited him to 135 games in 2007, especially since he's only getting older (and really, who knows if he's only 33?). Anything less than 30 home runs out of Soriano this year is probably a bad sign.

Center Field
'08: Jim Edmonds (.256/.369/.568, 19 HR and 49 RBI in 298 PAs) and Reed Johnson (.303/.358/.420, 6 HR and 50 RBI in 374 PAs)
'09: Reed Johnson and Kosuke Fukudome

The relatively unexpected power surge that Edmonds delivered to this position isn't likely to repeat, since neither Johnson nor Fukudome is a high-power guy. For that matter, what to expect out of Fukudome is entirely unclear; watching him bat in the second half of last year was pretty depressing given how great he looked the first couple of months. Like most Cubs fans, I still desperately want the guy to hit, and at least he can take a walk now and again (leading the team last year with 81), but the days of thinking he could pop 20 homers out of Wrigley and go for a .400 OBP like last year's PECOTA projected are long gone. (For the record, this year's PECOTA pegs Kosuke at .386, which still seems awfully optimistic. But hey, Hideki Matsui improved in his second year in America.)

Right Field
'08: Kosuke Fukudome (.257/.359/.379, 10 HR, 58 RBI, 81/104 BB/K)
'09: Milton Bradley

Since Fukudome turned out not to be the world-beating left-handed right fielder the Cubs wanted after the '07 season, they went after another one in Bradley - and arguably took at least as big of a gamble. For all Fukudome's lack of production post-June, at least he could run out there every day and played above-average defense. Just what Bradley is going to turn in in those departments is really anyone's guess. He had a great season last year, leading the AL in on-base percentage (.436!) and OPS (.999), but he also played just 20 games in the field (and just 126 overall). In fact, just once in his career has he been an everyday outfielder and played more or less a full season - 2004, when his OPS was a mere .786. His career stats are much higher in the AL - not having to field probably helped. And ironically, Bradley is actually a switch-hitter who hits better against lefties while batting RH than against righties while batting LH. Eesh. Still, I would hope the Cubs at least did their research on the injury front, and Bradley tore up the spring, hitting .460/.526/.800 (!!!) in 50 at-bats. Yes, that's just spring, but it's a good start.

Bench
'08: Mike Fontenot, Ronny Cedeno, Henry Blanco, Felix Pie, Daryle Ward, Micah Hoffpauir
'09: Koyie Hill, Aaron Miles, Micah Hoffpauir, Joey Gathright

Not the most intimidating bench. Hoffpauir flashes power in spring and the minors, but he's been mired behind Derrek Lee at first and can't really play anywhere else (to paraphrase Christina Kahrl at Baseball Prospectus, he plays the outfield corners in the sense that he's happy to run out there if you give him a glove), which means he's likely relegated to pinch-hit duties for most of the year, especially if Lee plays 155 games again. Miles is clearly a downgrade from DeRosa from a hitting standpoint, but he can also play anywhere; expect him to log a lot of games in right and left if Soriano and Bradley have years anywhere similar to last from an injury standpoint. A team with DeRosa hitting 21 homers could survive such outages; Miles' career high is 6, accomplished at Coors Field in 2004. On the bright side, he hit .317 last year for St. Louis and can switch-hit. Hill should be a similar non-factor on offense to Blanco, though he had a monster spring; the real loss in Hank White's departure is his veteran presence and defense, though Soto should have the latter covered anyway. As for Gathright, it's unclear why he was considered an upgrade over Felix Pie, who at least had the redeeming quality of still having potential. Gathright basically looks like a Juan Pierre clone on paper, although possibly even less talented, and we all remember how that turned out. I suppose if Pie wasn't going to play regularly anyway then it's probably a wash as to who sat on the bench between him and Gathright, but it struck me as an odd move even at the time.

Starting Pitching
'08: Carlos Zambrano (14-6, 3.91), Ryan Dempster (17-6, 2.96), Ted Lilly (17-9, 4.09), Jason Marquis (11-9, 4.53), Rich Harden (5-1, 1.77)
'09: Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly, Rich Harden, Sean Marshall

Zambrano lowered both his walks (which had been soaring) and strikeouts last year by largely pitching to contact, which unfortunately led to some ugly games, especially late in the year. It's also been speculated for some time that Zambrano has had lingering arm issues that would eventually blow up completely. He seems healthy this spring, but let's see how he looks in Houston. Dempster seems ripe for a regression, so let's just hope he doesn't fall back to the pack too much. Lilly probably will be what he will be - 15 wins, era around 4, bunch of home runs allowed - while Harden is something of an enigma even if he can stay healthy. Marshall should be an upgrade over Marquis, but just how much of an upgrade remains to be seen.

Relief Pitching
'08: Carlos Marmol, Bob Howry, Michael Wuertz, Neal Cotts, Sean Marshall, Jon Lieber, Jeff Samardzija, Kevin Hart, Chad Gaudin, Scott Eyre
'09: Carlos Marmol, Aaron Heilman, Neal Cotts, Angel Guzman, David Patton, Luis Vizcaino

Marmol's mediocre spring leaves him stuck in the 8th-inning role for now, which apparently disappointed him, hopefully not so much that he'll struggle. Heilman had a great spring; so did Patton, strangely, seeing as he's never pitched above Class A before. The rest of the pen is just "who had the least awful spring" - Cotts, Vizcaino and Guzman all had ERAs over 5, but had the good fortune not to pitch quite as badly as Chad Gaudin (released after signing a $2 million contract to avoid arbitration), Kevin Hart or Jeff Samardzija (both of whom had options and so headed back to Iowa). I imagine the hook will be quick if the middle relief struggles, though - with a couple years at most left in the win-the-World-Series window, the Cubs can't afford to turn into the Mets. Relief pitching was mostly a strength last year; it needs to be again.

Closer
'08: Kerry Wood (5-4, 3.26 ERA, 34 SV, 6 BS)
'09: Kevin Gregg

The sabermetric community frowned on the Gregg trade (he was acquired for Jose Ceda, a flamethrowing prospect who some said was a better pitcher than Gregg right now), but so far it seems all right - in the spring, Gregg made 11 appearances and didn't yield a single earned run. Of course, it's the spring - how often do the best players come up late in games? It's more likely that Gregg fattened his line on guys who will be in AA tomorrow if they aren't already. He'll probably be an adequate closer - 30 saves, 3.50 ERA - but this was probably a step down. Of course, if Gregg struggles, at least Marmol's there to step in.

All told, I'm definitely not without my worries for this year's team. Last year's team really seemed like it should have won it all - 97 regular season wins, career years from Dempster and DeRosa, a killer one-two punch at the end of games reminiscent of Rivera-to-Wetteland on the '96 Yankees. This year's team probably won't win 97 games, doesn't have that same one-two punch unless Gregg proves us all wrong, and looking at the roster I just don't see how anyone is likely to outperform last year's counterpart at their position significantly, unless it's Bradley. After all the talk of not repeating last year's embarrassing NLDS departure, did this team really even improve, in the final analysis?

It seems like the Cubs are primed to make the playoffs again. Milwaukee has taken two steps backwards, St. Louis hasn't really upgraded after overachieving last year (although a healthy Chris Carpenter would make a big difference for them), the Reds still seem too young to me, and Pittsburgh and Houston have been predicted by everyone to be awful. I still hate being the favorite, though. We've reached a point in the last decade where it's suddenly become a disappointment if the Cubs don't make the playoffs - or don't make the LCS or World Series - rather than a pleasant surprise when they do. And while no one wants to go through life rooting for a team that can only be counted on to make "pleasant surprise" playoff appearances, I'm not sure I'm a fan of being in the position of just coasting through the summer waiting for the playoffs to start. Which is ironic since I hate watching the Cubs lose, and any team that wins most of its games comfortably is clearly going to be a playoff lock.

I don't know. Much like last year, I'm looking forward to the season, but I'm also dreading it. Does that make sense?