Reaction time?

On Sunday, as the trade of C.C. Sabathia to Milwaukee was becoming official, Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus included this quote from someone in baseball in his article:

“The Cubs will react quickly to any deals in their division.”

Now, I don't know how true that is. But it seems reasonable to assume, doesn't it? Milwaukee made the Sabathia trade because they figure this is their year to try and contend - Sheets is likely gone next season and Fielder may not be around much longer either - but the thing is, the Cubs had already earmarked 2008 as "the year" to go for it, and their relatively hot first half, even with the recent stumble, has only encouraged things further. The Brewers, however, seem to be rebounding after a slow start, and while their bullpen is still extremely questionable, Sabathia certainly plugs one of their holes and potentially gives them one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball, one that could be particularly dangerous in any playoff series.

So Milwaukee has punched first. The question is, does Jim Hendry have a counterpunch in him? As good as the Cubs have been, they've been unable to shake St. Louis and Milwaukee so far, which isn't exactly an encouraging trend - while I hesitate to be too negative, one does have to wonder if the Cubs are actually going to win 96-97 games as they're ticketed to do based on current win percentages. And while the Cubs do have sizable statistical advantages over Milwaukee right now, their edge in pitching is actually fairly slim and could be largely erased by Sabathia and their edge in hitting has a lot to do with Milwaukee's slow start - and despite the fact that Milwaukee started slow, they now sit just 3.5 games back (possibly 3 after they host the Rockies tonight). The chance to take a 2005-White-Sox-like lead (10 games as early as June 22, 15 games on August 1), insurmountable even with late-season doldrums, has probably come and gone, and while the advantage the Central currently has over the rest of the NL likely means that the wild card will come from within, you'd hate to have to rely on that, especially since it would remove home-field in the playoffs.

I'm certainly not conceding the division to Milwaukee (though many Milwaukee fans certainly seem happy to assume a division title); that would be ridiculous before Sabathia even throws a pitch - and maybe after, since he only affects a game once every five days - and I think the Cubs are still more talented top to bottom. But the Brewers just got a lot scarier in the rear-view mirror, especially given that we finish the season with six games against Milwaukee in the final two weeks, including a season-ending series at Miller Park (where, of course, the Brewers are 28-13, the second-best mark in the NL behind the Cubs).

Anyway. The general assumption is that the Cubs are looking to add another starting pitcher, and presumably a #3 starter or better. Here's a list of the names being kicked around:

Rich Harden
Pros: 5-1 record, 92 Ks in 77 IP, 2.34 ERA (some of that due to a home park that strongly favors pitchers, but his road ERA of 3.38 is still quite respectable), frequently said to have ace stuff. Reports have Hendry working this angle quite hard at the moment.
Cons: When he's said to have ace stuff, it's usually followed by "...if he could stay healthy." Threw just 72.1 innings combined in 2006 and 2007; has a pretty substantial injury history. In spite of this, Billy Beane is said to want a comparable package to what he got from Arizona for Dan Haren last winter - which was fully six prospects, including two guys who are currently starters for Oakland and a blue-chipper they think of as their CF of the future. The Cubs probably don't have the pieces to put together that kind of haul, but then if Beane wants six players for a guy who still needs to prove he can pitch a full season, I'd run as fast as possible in the opposite direction.

Randy Wolf
Pros: Once upon a time, Randy Wolf was a pretty decent third starter. In 2002, he threw more than 210 innings, had an ERA+ of 121, and as many strikeouts as hits allowed. He's still capable of putting up pretty good ERA numbers, provided you play in Petco Park.
Cons: If you don't play in Petco Park, Wolf is a fourth starter at best, and the Cubs need someone elite, not someone who isn't even league average. Wolf's road ERA this year is 6.66, which should be a dead giveaway. He'd probably be cheap, but why give away anything for him when you could get the exact same results, or significantly better, by continuing to start Sean Marshall or even Sean Gallagher? This would be another Steve Trachsel deal, if you ask me.

A.J. Burnett
Pros: Apparently, Burnett would welcome a trade to the Cubs, and when he's on he can be very good, putting up an ERA+ of 115 or better in four of his six full seasons in the pros. He also strikes out nearly a batter an inning, a valuable asset on a Cubs staff that increasingly finds itself pitching to contact.
Cons: This year, his ERA+ is 82. He may not be fully healthy (like Harden, there's some injury history there). There's also some risk that he would be a rental player if good, but a liability if bad (he can opt out of his contract at the end of the year, but presumably wouldn't do so if he sucked, leaving the Cubs on the hook for two more years at $12 million per), but then again if you're the Cubs and trying desperately to win in '08, it might be worth the risk.

Erik Bedard
Pros: Has ace-like stuff. Last year in Baltimore, went 13-5 with a 3.16 ERA (146 ERA+) and 221 Ks in 182 innings.
Cons: Attitude seems questionable. Might be injured at the moment. Hardly setting the world on fire this year, though who knows how much of that is mental, due to Seattle's struggles. Mariners might not be willing to give him up for anything but a big package, given how much their previous regime spent to bring him in.

I'm not sure which of that list I want the Cubs to go for, though I can tell you for sure that they'd better stay the hell away from Wolf. As for the other three, I do have to wonder if the Cubs have the players to make a decent package - Josh Vitters, last year's #1 pick, is still extremely raw in the low minors, but of course he's not even 19 yet; Pie's value has dipped significantly; Hill is probably untradeable at this point; and while the Iowa Cubs have played awfully well this year, a lot of their value is tied up in older guys who may or may not be valuable trading chips. (Is Jason Dubois, at 29, suddenly a valuable commodity because he hits a lot of home runs at Iowa? Doubtful.)

So we'll see. I wouldn't mind seeing Hendry stand pat for the moment - let's not forget that this team doesn't have Alfonso Soriano and their history shows they play a lot better relative to .500 with him than without him. Obviously you can't wait too long to make a move, but let's make sure we know what we've got first, and not do anything out of panic.