Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Beat the Mets, beat the Mets

Step right up and sweep the Mets
Start Cedeno, start Pie
Guaranteed to have a heck of a day


Yeah, I know - it was only two games, and it's still just April, and we didn't face Santana. But that was two big wins over the presumptive NL champions (if you listen to sportswriters), and both times it was good pitching combined with timely hitting. Zambrano was strong on Monday, and while the five-run eighth was a gift from Jose Reyes, the Cubs were still able to exploit it. Lilly was as good as he's been all year on Tuesday, though that's kind of praising with faint damn. He did walk four, and had similar problems to what he'd been having - after cruising through three (and one trip around the Mets' lineup), he labored through the fourth and sixth, loading the bases with one out both times and somewhat miraculously giving up just a single run. Howry and Marmol slammed the door in the seventh and eighth, and while Hart was a bit of an adventure in the ninth, he didn't give up a run and it was 8-1 at that point anyway.

Is there anything to complain about from this two-game set? Outscoring the Mets 15-2? Pie going 3-for-6 in the two games including his home run to put Monday's game away? Cedeno going 3-for-9 with seven RBI and a grand slam? The team taking eight walks on Tuesday? About the only dull spot was Soto's 0-for-4 on Monday, and after coming in as a late pinch-hitter in Tuesday's game he reached in both plate appearances and he's still hitting .317.

Everyone is hitting, in fact, especially if Pie is legitimately finding it. Every Cub with 50 plate appearances who isn't currently on the DL has an OBP of .400 or better. Read that again. Every last one, with the inactive Soriano being the only exception. Seven of the top 23 OBP guys in the NL, with 50 or more PAs, are Cubs.

I mean, look. This probably won't keep up. I doubt seven Cubs regulars will finish the season with OBPs of .400 or better. Frankly, I'd be reasonably shocked if more than two Cubs regulars - specifically Fukudome and Lee - finished the season with OBPs of .400 or better. But you've gotta love it while it's happening.

Am I a little nervous that they might be peaking too early, à la the Brewers last year? Eh, maybe a little, but the Brewers' biggest problem was and continues to be their bullpen, and the Cubs' bullpen is a lot better than Milwaukee's. Like, by several miles. And it's not like I'd rather they got off to a slow start, especially when all the chasing they did clearly seemed to have gassed them by the end of last year. I'd much rather the Cubs be the team with an eight-game lead in June; I've got more confidence in them to hold it, as strange as it sounds to say that. And yes, I know that the Cubs are off to their best 20-game start since 1975, and more importantly I know that that team wasn't very good and eventually finished fifth. I don't think lack of talent is an issue with the current edition. Hell, if Cedeno, Johnson and Pie all keep hitting, surplus of talent is going to be an issue. What does Lou - a noted sucker for the hot hand - do when every last hand is hot?

And here's a thought question: what happens if Soriano comes back and doesn't start hitting within a few days? What if that coincides with the team's hot streak petering out? Surely you can't justify benching Soriano, but could you hit him fifth? Sixth?

(Just for fun, the 20-game starts of the Cubs' playoff teams of my lifetime:
1984: 12-8
1989: 10-10
1998: 12-8
2003: 13-7
2007: 7-13

Man, that last one sticks out like a sore thumb, doesn't it? I think we're all pretty glad they've gotten off to such a hot start this year. Here's to following a 7-1 homestand with a strong road trip.)

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