Lies, damn lies, and statistics

In what has to become a leading contender for Non-Story of the Year, Red Eye (that bastion of investigative journalism) reports that a recent survey shows the White Sox are just a few percentage points behind the Cubs in popularity, "popularity" being defined by how many people attend and/or watch the team's games. Red Eye wondered, "Is Chicago becoming a Sox town?" The answer, obviously, is no. Shouldn't the real story here be "How is it that a World Series champion is still less popular than its fifth-place rival?"

I would hope that the Sox got more popular after winning the World Series, because if they couldn't even do that, that would be pretty pathetic. But lost here is how the Sox were hovering in the high 30s to low 40s, a good 15-20 points behind the Cubs every single year. Even after winning the World Series, the Sox couldn't completely close the gap, and that's with, according to the data, 71% of announced Cubs fans saying that they watched at least one Sox game this year. You think that's going to happen when the Sox are sitting at home in October again?

Ken Williams appears to have started something of a renaissance, and good for him; if only Jim Hendry could say the same. But the Sox aren't going to win forever; their success of last year owed to a dominant pitching staff, most of which has already regressed to the mean, and while their offense is pretty impressive, its biggest booster this year is already in his late 30s. This isn't really the new Yankees (although, considering their recent propensity for signing aging guys to overly-long deals, maybe it is).

But all this really gets away from the point. Everyone in Chicago - Cubs and Sox fans alike - knows that this is really a Cubs town, at least baseball-wise. When (if) the Cubs win the World Series, the explosion will be ten times what it was in 2005. Bet on it. I imagine that's why the Sox fans are desperately trying to get their licks in now; when the Cubs are on top of the baseball world, there won't be more than a few thousand Sox fans. (The other thing is that while I think the bulk of Cubs fans want a World Series more than anything, I'm betting that the majority of Sox fans would trade their title if it meant the Bears could win the Super Bowl. That's the demographic that a lot of Sox fans are in - the working class South Siders who care more about football than anything. Yet another reason why the Sox only draw when bandwagon fans are flocking to the park; you can't go to a lot of Sox games if you're saving up for Bears tickets.)

So, good for the Sox, I suppose; enjoy it while you can. But remember: if you're one of the best teams in baseball, and you still can't top a lousy Cubs team in popularity... well, you're not more popular than the Cubs and you're never going to be. Sorry.