Lies, damn lies, and statistics

In what has to become a leading contender for Non-Story of the Year, Red Eye (that bastion of investigative journalism) reports that a recent survey shows the White Sox are just a few percentage points behind the Cubs in popularity, "popularity" being defined by how many people attend and/or watch the team's games. Red Eye wondered, "Is Chicago becoming a Sox town?" The answer, obviously, is no. Shouldn't the real story here be "How is it that a World Series champion is still less popular than its fifth-place rival?"

I would hope that the Sox got more popular after winning the World Series, because if they couldn't even do that, that would be pretty pathetic. But lost here is how the Sox were hovering in the high 30s to low 40s, a good 15-20 points behind the Cubs every single year. Even after winning the World Series, the Sox couldn't completely close the gap, and that's with, according to the data, 71% of announced Cubs fans saying that they watched at least one Sox game this year. You think that's going to happen when the Sox are sitting at home in October again?

Ken Williams appears to have started something of a renaissance, and good for him; if only Jim Hendry could say the same. But the Sox aren't going to win forever; their success of last year owed to a dominant pitching staff, most of which has already regressed to the mean, and while their offense is pretty impressive, its biggest booster this year is already in his late 30s. This isn't really the new Yankees (although, considering their recent propensity for signing aging guys to overly-long deals, maybe it is).

But all this really gets away from the point. Everyone in Chicago - Cubs and Sox fans alike - knows that this is really a Cubs town, at least baseball-wise. When (if) the Cubs win the World Series, the explosion will be ten times what it was in 2005. Bet on it. I imagine that's why the Sox fans are desperately trying to get their licks in now; when the Cubs are on top of the baseball world, there won't be more than a few thousand Sox fans. (The other thing is that while I think the bulk of Cubs fans want a World Series more than anything, I'm betting that the majority of Sox fans would trade their title if it meant the Bears could win the Super Bowl. That's the demographic that a lot of Sox fans are in - the working class South Siders who care more about football than anything. Yet another reason why the Sox only draw when bandwagon fans are flocking to the park; you can't go to a lot of Sox games if you're saving up for Bears tickets.)

So, good for the Sox, I suppose; enjoy it while you can. But remember: if you're one of the best teams in baseball, and you still can't top a lousy Cubs team in popularity... well, you're not more popular than the Cubs and you're never going to be. Sorry.

Goodbye again

Most of the talking heads are raving about what a great deal this was for the Cubs - they get rid of a future Hall of Famer, but nonetheless a future Hall of Famer who was having a great deal of trouble getting people out over the last two months, and they upgrade their middling infield defense at the same time. And I guess from that standpoint it does make sense.

Except that the Cubs aren't going anywhere this season, and Cesar Izturis - a pretty good fielder with the bat of Bucky Dent - isn't doing anything to change that, even if he doubled and scored in his first at-bat as a Cub. The infield may indeed have needed upgrading, but Greg Maddux isn't just a spare part, even at his age. The Cubs made a terrible mistake letting him go once. Obviously it's pretty much impossible for the same thing to happen again, short of the Dodgers winning the World Series this year (and even then, it's not like keeping Maddux would have made the Cubs this year's world champs), but from a fan's perspective, I still think it was a mistake. The pundits kept saying how the Cubs owed it to Maddux to trade him to a contender. Why? The guy has a ring, and future HOFers retire without championships all the time. There was no reason Maddux had to leave Chicago, and after all the heartache caused by his initial departure and subsequent success, there was going to be something cleansing about him finishing his career at Wrigley Field. And now that won't happen. Sure, he's going into the Hall with an A on his cap no matter what else happens, but we could have had him retire as a Cub, the same way he started. It was going to work. And then it didn't.

I suppose I should really blame the team for being so bad that Maddux - and, oh yeah, Todd Walker - "had" to be dealt. There needs to be an overhaul of that pitching staff in the offseason - one columnist suggested the Cubs go after Barry Zito, and that probably wouldn't be the worst idea since they need an impact pitcher of some sort to go along with Zambrano, and it might as well be a lefthander - and the addition of another bat to the lineup before this team can prepare for possible contention in 2007. For all the griping about injuries and bad luck, when you look at this year's team, does it really seem like a pennant winner on paper? Probably not. But only a handful of changes are really required to make that leap, as long as everyone currently there stays healthy. (Snicker.)

Wait till next year.