Sunday, June 04, 2006

I'll take two

Phil Nevin's first Cub home run. An Aramis grand slam. Five solid innings from Rusch. Novoa throwing three scoreless and hitting an RBI double (!). And a series won in St. Louis (a place the Cubs struggled mightily over much of the last decade). Even if they don't win the third game - we'll see how Maddux looks and if he's rebounded from May, and it'll help if Pujols continues to be out - you have to consider this series a success. Although it's worth noting that the Cubs needed a lot of help to win these games. They had a ton of hits in both games, but the real breakthroughs in both came thanks to errors. Sure, you need some luck along the way too, but if Gold Glover Rolen doesn't make one each day, we could conceivably be staring at a three-game losing sweep tomorrow. A bit too close for comfort, don't you think?

I love that Jones is over .300 now. The right-field bleachers should make a big "Sorry we booed you like crazy" sign for the next home game. And why has Jones been so much the object of derision with leadoff savior Pierre hitting around 40 points worse than Corey Patterson? Pierre does have 17 stolen bases - putting him on pace for more than 50. He'd be the first Cub since Eric Young stole 54 in 2000 to even top 40, and in fact just the second in 20 years to do so - Ryne Sandberg stole 54 in 1985 (and a 40-year-old Davey Lopes stole 47 in just 99 games that same year - Pierre would be the first Cubs OF since Lopes to top 40). History indicates that Baker teams don't do much running, but it may just be that he hasn't really had the personnel for it. On the other hand, the current team has a pretty decent amount of speed and yet only Pierre has as many as ten attempts (and only two other guys have more than four).

Really, I'd be happy if they just keep winning. Rebound a little bit before Lee and Prior come back, then hopefully rebound a lot at that point. There's no way this team shouldn't be better than last year's sub-.500 squad. Two out of every three games the rest of the way would get them to around 93 wins, which would be good enough for the playoffs, I would expect. Of course, that's probably a little unrealistic ("a little"). Even Houston only got to 89 last year from the 20-32 spot. But you know what they say - you gotta believe.

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