Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Hey nineteen, that's 'Retha Franklin

Needlessly in keeping with the Steely Dan lyric in the post title, the Cubs weren't getting much R-E-S-P-E-C-T from the Brewers following Tuesday night's 10-7 loss, the Cubs' third in four games to Milwaukee this year and particularly disappointing since it was a rare example of the Cubs actually getting to Ben Sheets a bit. But things turned around in a big way tonight, with Geovany Soto blasting two three-run homers and the Cubs scoring five runs or more in three separate innings - including six in the first that turned out to be all they needed - as they absolutely rolled to a 19-5 laugher over the Brewers.

Within a couple minutes of the opening pitch, it became clear to me - and I said this to my dad during the first inning, while the score was still 3-0 at most - that Suppan had absolutely nothing. His fastball was topping out at about 89 and he was nibbling like crazy. It was the kind of pitching performance, in other words, that used to give the Cubs absolute fits, as evidenced by his 8-2 win on April 2 or by his career 3.13 ERA against the Cubs, nearly a run and a half below his career total. But these are the new, patient Cubs, and a night after walking eight times in a loss, the Cubs walked nine times, though just one was off Suppan. The key, though, was getting into hitter's counts, making Suppan throw pitches, and waiting for the right pitch - and then thumping those right pitches, to the tune of 11 hits and 11 runs, eight earned, charged to Suppan in just 3.2 innings. Suppan averaged 3.83 pitches per batter faced, and against the Brewers' four relievers it was even better, as they combined to throw 4.67 pitches per batter. Patience at the plate does, indeed, pay off. As I said to my dad a little later in the game, this team is starting to remind me of those immensely successful late 90s Yankees teams (much though I hate to make the comparison), at least on offense - what made those teams devastating was a combination of patience at the plate (they led the AL in OBP in 1997 and 1998 and were second in 1999), good baserunning, timely power, and the fact that pretty much every spot in the lineup was capable of beating you in some way, usually with an obnoxious, back-breaking hit. It's still early, of course, but the Cubs have now drawn 130 walks in 27 games, nearly five walks a game. Sorry for all the italics, but I think they're merited. Five walks a game??? The 2007 Cubs, by comparison, drew 500 walks all year (15th in the NL), just over three a game, and the 2006 Cubs - as you might guess - drew just 395, dead last in the NL and under two and a half per game. You really almost have to try to walk so few times. The 2002 Cubs were the last Cubs team to finish higher than 14th in the NL in walks, and also the last to draw more than 500 (585, with 103 of those belonging to Sammy Sosa). The 2008 Cubs are on pace to draw 780 walks, the most of any Cubs team in the divisional era (1969-present), with only the 1975 and 2000 squads even coming within 150 of that mark. It's likely the Cubs will tail off this pace, of course; only four teams in the last decade in the NL have drawn 700 walks, and three of those made the playoffs. (The fourth was the 2004 Giants for whom Barry Bonds walked 232 times, 120 intentional. The Giants missed the playoffs, in part because he was the only full-time guy on the team who was really good at getting on base, but they did win 91 games in spite of a pitching staff whose 2-4 starters were Brett Tomko, Kirk Rueter, and Jerome Williams.) The point of all this: walks are good.

Of course it bears mentioning that Ryan Dempster and company were probably pretty thankful for the 19 runs of support, since the four Cubs pitchers threw an average of 4.35 pitchers per batter themselves, with Dempster walking five despite holding an enormous lead in every inning but one. I'll grant that the Brewers have good hitters and you can't consider a 6-0 lead totally safe when you just watched them score ten last night, but falling behind 2-0 and 3-1 on guys probably isn't the way to avoid having to throw them a ton of get-'em-over pitches. Dempster didn't do that, of course, allowing just four hits, but that's because he walked five. Probably not the sort of thing you can sustain over the course of an entire season. The Cubs are on pace to walk 576, about the same as last year's number, which isn't great; the NL leaders in 2007, San Diego, walked only 474.

So, clearly, still a lot of room for improvement. But with this team on pace to have three 30-homer guys (not including Soriano, who we know can hit them in bunches) and four 100-RBI guys, I'm pretty happy to have a pitching staff that, even when clearly not yet in top form in most cases (Zambrano and Marmol excepted), can at least keep us in games. As long as that improves over the summer, and I would hope it would, and as long as the offense doesn't tail off - and you'd think it would only improve in the warmer months as it has in the past - well, we could be in for a pretty good summer. As it is, the Cubs set a franchise record for wins before May 1 with 17, although it does help when you start playing on March 31.

No comments: