The Cubs just keep on giving us things to consider.
* Lee and Soto both hit home runs today in a 7-5 win over the Giants, which was good to see; Hill also put together a decent start, going five innings, allowing 2 ER on five hits and a walk, while striking out six. All three guys had been struggling, so it was good to see them do something for a change.
* New acquisition Reed Johnson started in center to get some at-bats with the team; he went 2-for-5 and scored two runs. If these trends continue... ayyyyyy.
* Michael Wuertz, subject of trade rumors that I think were just planted by Tigers beat writers, since trading him never made sense, had yet another scoreless inning. Spring ERA? 0.00. Carmen Pignatiello finally allowed a run; his spring ERA is 1.00.
* Matt Murton went 1-for-3 with a sac fly RBI; he also preserved a 4-4 tie in the seventh by throwing out Fred Lewis at home plate from left field. Soriano's not the only one with gifts.
* Hoffpauir, Patterson, and Fuld (along with Walrond and McGehee) were officially sent down. The roster on Cubs.com is currently listed at 29: 15 pitchers, two catchers, seven IFs and five OFs. This means four more guys have to get lost between now and opening day. The outfield - Soriano, Pie, Fukudome, Murton and Johnson - seems set, so who else is going?
Well, the current list of seven IFs is Lee, DeRosa, Theriot, Ramirez, Cedeno, Fontenot and Ward. If you have to cut one from that - and I think Lou wants 12 pitchers, so it's likely that someone will get cut - I'd say it's clearly Cedeno vs. Fontenot. Cedeno is probably stronger defensively, while Fontenot is probably stronger offensively and gives the Cubs another lefty bat on the bench. I really don't know what the Cubs should do with Cedeno; unless Theriot absolutely doesn't hit, he's blocked up here, but he tore up the PCL last year to such great effect that it's not clear more time in the minors is going to help him. It's no wonder he was supposed to be part of the now-dormant Brian Roberts deal. But between them I think I'd keep Fontenot for the time being.
As for the pitchers, the 15 left are the five starters (Zambrano, Lilly, Hill, Dempster, Marquis), the closer (Wood), and nine relievers going for what I think will be six spots (Lieber, Marmol, Howry, Marshall, Hart, Pignatiello, Wuertz, Lahey and Eyre). Eyre is apparently injured, so forget him for the time being. That leaves two more. I don't see how Lahey makes it; I assume the only reason he's still hanging in there is, as a Rule V draftee, the Cubs can't option him to the minors. That leaves one, and it's clearly between Hart and Pignatiello, and although Hart was great last year, he hasn't had all that good of a spring, whereas Pignatiello has. Pignatiello is also a lefty, and with Eyre injured the only other lefty in the pen would be Marshall, so he fills a need.
Makes sense to me. Thoughts? Would you send Pignatiello (or Marshall?) down so you could keep Cedeno up, or does 12 pitchers make the most sense right now?
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Trees to Lorax: "Shut up"
If you read Deadspin, you're probably familiar with the various season previews, usually given to fans of a team as a soapbox to say how they feel about the team for the upcoming year. Or, in this case, given to the most famous magazine editor willing to call himself a Cubs fan. Complete idiocy or subtle sabotage by Cardinals fan Will Leitch? You be the judge.
FRAUD MARKER #1
Believes the 1908 World Series was held at Wrigley Field, which was not built until 1914. (At which time it was called Weeghman Park, anyway.)
FRAUD MARKER #2
Believes the Cubs' last title was won over the Pirates, who finished third in the NL (that's right, same league as the Cubs!) in 1908. When I first read this I thought it was a joke, but I don't think I can extend that kind of benefit of the doubt.
FRAUD MARKER #3
Thinking Hideki Matsui played on a Yankees team that won a World Series. His first year in New York was 2003. Not even close. This isn't Cubs-related, but it does tell you something about how much of a baseball fan the guy is. And even if he wasn't sure, it would have taken, what, ten seconds to look that up?
FRAUD MARKER #4
Thinking Sean Marshall is a viable candidate for the rotation, and apparently having no idea that Ryan Dempster was in the mix. Unless this article was written two months ago, what serious Cubs fan has an excuse for having no clue as to what the starting rotation will look like, especially when it was just announced?
FRAUD MARKER #5
Ditto for the whole "Howry/Marmol as two-headed closer" thing. Have you been in a cave since February 1?
FRAUD MARKER #6
Thinking Fukudome is a 40-45 HR threat. I'm hopeful for the guy, but nobody is projecting he's going to have that kind of power. Maybe if you just heard that the Cubs were getting some Japanese guy and read nothing about him, you could make that kind of leap in your mind.
FRAUD MARKER #7
Thinking that Soto was "landed ... this off-season." Uh, did you watch the playoffs last year? When he was our starting fucking catcher?
FRAUD MARKER #8
Thinking that Felix Pie is "finally making his big league debut." I'll cut him some slack here; maybe he just doesn't know what "debut" means. Pie didn't play a ton last year, but he did appear in 87 games, which is more than half a season.
FRAUD MARKER #9
Generally sounding like a shit-eating 22-year-old who just graduated from Notre Dame and is on his third Old Style in the top of the second. All that was missing was his failure to work in some sort of "Cardinals suck, Sox swallow" joke.
God. And see, this is the kind of person that the media allows to be the face of Cubs fans. No wonder everyone pictures us as drunken, overgrown frat boys who are more interested in getting a sunburn than watching a baseball game. Ugh.
FRAUD MARKER #1
Believes the 1908 World Series was held at Wrigley Field, which was not built until 1914. (At which time it was called Weeghman Park, anyway.)
FRAUD MARKER #2
Believes the Cubs' last title was won over the Pirates, who finished third in the NL (that's right, same league as the Cubs!) in 1908. When I first read this I thought it was a joke, but I don't think I can extend that kind of benefit of the doubt.
FRAUD MARKER #3
Thinking Hideki Matsui played on a Yankees team that won a World Series. His first year in New York was 2003. Not even close. This isn't Cubs-related, but it does tell you something about how much of a baseball fan the guy is. And even if he wasn't sure, it would have taken, what, ten seconds to look that up?
FRAUD MARKER #4
Thinking Sean Marshall is a viable candidate for the rotation, and apparently having no idea that Ryan Dempster was in the mix. Unless this article was written two months ago, what serious Cubs fan has an excuse for having no clue as to what the starting rotation will look like, especially when it was just announced?
FRAUD MARKER #5
Ditto for the whole "Howry/Marmol as two-headed closer" thing. Have you been in a cave since February 1?
FRAUD MARKER #6
Thinking Fukudome is a 40-45 HR threat. I'm hopeful for the guy, but nobody is projecting he's going to have that kind of power. Maybe if you just heard that the Cubs were getting some Japanese guy and read nothing about him, you could make that kind of leap in your mind.
FRAUD MARKER #7
Thinking that Soto was "landed ... this off-season." Uh, did you watch the playoffs last year? When he was our starting fucking catcher?
FRAUD MARKER #8
Thinking that Felix Pie is "finally making his big league debut." I'll cut him some slack here; maybe he just doesn't know what "debut" means. Pie didn't play a ton last year, but he did appear in 87 games, which is more than half a season.
FRAUD MARKER #9
Generally sounding like a shit-eating 22-year-old who just graduated from Notre Dame and is on his third Old Style in the top of the second. All that was missing was his failure to work in some sort of "Cardinals suck, Sox swallow" joke.
God. And see, this is the kind of person that the media allows to be the face of Cubs fans. No wonder everyone pictures us as drunken, overgrown frat boys who are more interested in getting a sunburn than watching a baseball game. Ugh.
Monday, March 24, 2008
The rotation is set. For now.
So the big announcement came today, and it was a little bit of a surprise, at least to me. The rotation will look like so:
1. Zambrano
2. Lilly
3. Dempster
4. Hill
5. Marquis
Not that order of rotation matters so much, but I was a little surprised Dempster was named the third starter, although I assume it's because he breaks up Hill and Lilly, the two lefties in the rotation. My question would be, why exactly did Dempster make it over Lieber? Your spring stats:
Dempster: 5.23 ERA, 11 BB (plus 2 HBP), 18 K, 2 HR allowed
Lieber: 2.50 ERA, 3 BB, 15 K, 1 HR allowed
By all reasonable standards, Lieber was better. I assume the thinking runs mostly along the lines that Dempster gave up the closer job to compete for the rotation, and now the closer job is no longer available. And Dempster's been a Cub longer than Lieber (kinda), and anyway Lieber will still fill a valuable role as the Glendon Rusch-like spot starter/long man out of the pen (hopefully in a way that resembles 2004 Glendon Rusch and not 2005 or - ugh - 2006 Glendon Rusch). At any rate, should Dempster bomb out of the gate, I don't doubt Lou will be ready with Lieber. Eyre's elbow injury also gives Marshall a chance to make the team, and he's another guy who could potentially make a spot start or go three innings in one day.
Going back to the lineup for a minute, I have a question. Why does everyone seem to be talking about Felix Pie in a "He can't do it, we know he can't do it, we'd better find another OF for the exact moment he can't do it" kind of way? I don't know if you've looked at the spring numbers, but Pie has been one of the best hitters on the team, with a .340 average and an OPS of .952. Small sample size? Absolutely. But only two at-bats smaller than that of Micah Hoffpauir, who's being talked about like the next Mickey Mantle after hitting .382 with an OPS of 1.004 so far in camp. And yeah, that's really good. But if we take those numbers at face value from a career minor leaguer (please note that Hoffpauir is more than two years older than I am and has a career minors OPS of a mere .790), why not assume that Pie, who only just turned 23, is likely to be figuring things out when he hits .340 in spring? Maybe it's because Hoffpauir is blocked by Lee, and so we don't really have to worry about being wrong - he's almost certainly starting the season at Iowa no matter what. Pie, on the other hand, is the starting CF. We've got more to lose if we're wrong about him.
I've heard talk that Reed Johnson might be picked up as a backup CF option to Pie, if he clears waivers. For those of you who have no idea who he is - and rightly so - here's the book, briefly:
Johnson: 31 years old; can play all three OF slots at least serviceably; had an OBP of .390 for Toronto in 2006. Then sucked (and was injured) in 2007.
This could possibly continue the Cubs trend of signing outfielders a year or two after they've stopped being good, hoping they'll go back to being good, only they get even worse (see: Pierre, Juan; Monroe, Craig). It also, according to ESPN.com, "could free them to trade Matt Murton in the next few days."
ARRRRGH NO NO NO
God. Okay, fine, Murton can't play center. But why would you trade away 40-50 points of OBP for a backup plan? I've said it before and I'll say it again - if Pie can't hack it, move Fukudome to center and put Murton in right. That's probably well over 700 points of OBP in two-thirds of the outfield. And if Pie works out just fine, Murton can hit against lefties off the bench. He kills lefties. You do not just trade a guy who kills lefties because you want a slightly stouter defensive backup center fielder. Jesus Christ. Is this really that hard?
1. Zambrano
2. Lilly
3. Dempster
4. Hill
5. Marquis
Not that order of rotation matters so much, but I was a little surprised Dempster was named the third starter, although I assume it's because he breaks up Hill and Lilly, the two lefties in the rotation. My question would be, why exactly did Dempster make it over Lieber? Your spring stats:
Dempster: 5.23 ERA, 11 BB (plus 2 HBP), 18 K, 2 HR allowed
Lieber: 2.50 ERA, 3 BB, 15 K, 1 HR allowed
By all reasonable standards, Lieber was better. I assume the thinking runs mostly along the lines that Dempster gave up the closer job to compete for the rotation, and now the closer job is no longer available. And Dempster's been a Cub longer than Lieber (kinda), and anyway Lieber will still fill a valuable role as the Glendon Rusch-like spot starter/long man out of the pen (hopefully in a way that resembles 2004 Glendon Rusch and not 2005 or - ugh - 2006 Glendon Rusch). At any rate, should Dempster bomb out of the gate, I don't doubt Lou will be ready with Lieber. Eyre's elbow injury also gives Marshall a chance to make the team, and he's another guy who could potentially make a spot start or go three innings in one day.
Going back to the lineup for a minute, I have a question. Why does everyone seem to be talking about Felix Pie in a "He can't do it, we know he can't do it, we'd better find another OF for the exact moment he can't do it" kind of way? I don't know if you've looked at the spring numbers, but Pie has been one of the best hitters on the team, with a .340 average and an OPS of .952. Small sample size? Absolutely. But only two at-bats smaller than that of Micah Hoffpauir, who's being talked about like the next Mickey Mantle after hitting .382 with an OPS of 1.004 so far in camp. And yeah, that's really good. But if we take those numbers at face value from a career minor leaguer (please note that Hoffpauir is more than two years older than I am and has a career minors OPS of a mere .790), why not assume that Pie, who only just turned 23, is likely to be figuring things out when he hits .340 in spring? Maybe it's because Hoffpauir is blocked by Lee, and so we don't really have to worry about being wrong - he's almost certainly starting the season at Iowa no matter what. Pie, on the other hand, is the starting CF. We've got more to lose if we're wrong about him.
I've heard talk that Reed Johnson might be picked up as a backup CF option to Pie, if he clears waivers. For those of you who have no idea who he is - and rightly so - here's the book, briefly:
Johnson: 31 years old; can play all three OF slots at least serviceably; had an OBP of .390 for Toronto in 2006. Then sucked (and was injured) in 2007.
This could possibly continue the Cubs trend of signing outfielders a year or two after they've stopped being good, hoping they'll go back to being good, only they get even worse (see: Pierre, Juan; Monroe, Craig). It also, according to ESPN.com, "could free them to trade Matt Murton in the next few days."
ARRRRGH NO NO NO
God. Okay, fine, Murton can't play center. But why would you trade away 40-50 points of OBP for a backup plan? I've said it before and I'll say it again - if Pie can't hack it, move Fukudome to center and put Murton in right. That's probably well over 700 points of OBP in two-thirds of the outfield. And if Pie works out just fine, Murton can hit against lefties off the bench. He kills lefties. You do not just trade a guy who kills lefties because you want a slightly stouter defensive backup center fielder. Jesus Christ. Is this really that hard?
Sunday, March 23, 2008
A pressing question
I have a very serious question for all Cubs fans, and it regards prospective trades. Here it is:
Why does Jim Hendry hate Mark DeRosa?
DeRosa was basically a below-average offensive player for the bulk of his career, until 2006, when he had a decent season (108 OPS+) with Texas. Hendry signed him to shore up what seemed at the time to be a gaping need, second base; DeRosa responded by going .293/.371/.420, not huge numbers but pretty strong for a guy who never had a ton of power, and more than 30 points above his career OBP. He also played right field when called upon to do so and in general was a good soldier.
Now, I'm not in the clubhouse. So maybe he's a dick or something. But with all that in mind, why does Hendry seem so insistent on booting DeRo to the bench? The Brian Roberts trade was one thing. Roberts' OBP last year was .377; in 2005 it was .387. He's two-plus years younger than DeRosa; he also steals bases (50 last year), which DeRosa does not, and he's a better fielder, although perhaps not by a ton. He also gives the Cubs an obvious leadoff man, which currently they lack (unless Ryan Theriot can get his OBP back up to 2006 levels). So that, at least, I understand.
But now, apparently, there's talk of trading for Felipe Lopez. What? Hey, you know why Felipe Lopez is on the trading block? Because he sucks fucking ass. Here's Felipe Lopez's stats from last year: .245/.308/.352. Are you fucking kidding me? He would immediately become the worst infielder on the team. I'm not sure what Jim's attachment is to Hispanic infielders who don't hit well, but why not just stick Ronny Cedeno out there if that's the case? I thought when we got rid of Cesar Izturis that those days were over.
I mean, if you're going to trade for Lopez, at least tell me that you're during it as insurance, just in case DeRosa's heart isn't fine, and not because you're actually looking to hand Lopez a starting job. And please don't tell me you'd trade more than a single B-grade prospect for him. Hendry has made two of the biggest steals in recent trading history in his acquisitions of Lee and Ramirez; let's not give away all that good will by making idiotic moves right when we need you the most, Jim.
I guess I'm worried about panic setting in. This team was built to win now, and everyone knows it, and any suggestion that it's not going to happen seems to be leading Hendry and Piniella to want to change whatever they can. For his part, at least Piniella said that he plans on keeping the lineup how it is right now:
1. Theriot
2. Soriano
3. Lee
4. Ramirez
5. Fukudome
6. DeRosa
7. Soto
8. Pie
9. P
I will continue my objection to trading for someone to possibly replace Pie in center. Put Fukudome in center and Murton in right. Okay, it's probably a slight defensive liability, but Murton gets on base, man. And as I've said several times in recent posts, Byrd and Crisp do not. Are a few balls that get cut off before reaching the gap worth 40 points of OBP?
The rotation is expected to be announced tomorrow. Marquis had another good outing today - though he had a rough first inning (having started with a 6-0 lead), he settled down after that and ended up allowing just the three runs (which came on a single home run in the first) on four hits, with five Ks in 4.1 innings. Afterwards, Piniella said that Marquis hasn't done anything this spring to suggest he wouldn't be in the rotation. To me, that points to Dempster being the odd man out - he's done a fine job, but as I said last post, his ERA is the highest of those three guys competing for the two spots, plus Dempster has bullpen experience. The question, of course, is what good a non-closing Dempster is in the bullpen; we saw how rough he could be in non-save situations, so do you trust him as a 2-3 inning guy every fourth or fifth day?
I'll have another post after we learn the rotation. Baseball is a week away, guys.
Why does Jim Hendry hate Mark DeRosa?
DeRosa was basically a below-average offensive player for the bulk of his career, until 2006, when he had a decent season (108 OPS+) with Texas. Hendry signed him to shore up what seemed at the time to be a gaping need, second base; DeRosa responded by going .293/.371/.420, not huge numbers but pretty strong for a guy who never had a ton of power, and more than 30 points above his career OBP. He also played right field when called upon to do so and in general was a good soldier.
Now, I'm not in the clubhouse. So maybe he's a dick or something. But with all that in mind, why does Hendry seem so insistent on booting DeRo to the bench? The Brian Roberts trade was one thing. Roberts' OBP last year was .377; in 2005 it was .387. He's two-plus years younger than DeRosa; he also steals bases (50 last year), which DeRosa does not, and he's a better fielder, although perhaps not by a ton. He also gives the Cubs an obvious leadoff man, which currently they lack (unless Ryan Theriot can get his OBP back up to 2006 levels). So that, at least, I understand.
But now, apparently, there's talk of trading for Felipe Lopez. What? Hey, you know why Felipe Lopez is on the trading block? Because he sucks fucking ass. Here's Felipe Lopez's stats from last year: .245/.308/.352. Are you fucking kidding me? He would immediately become the worst infielder on the team. I'm not sure what Jim's attachment is to Hispanic infielders who don't hit well, but why not just stick Ronny Cedeno out there if that's the case? I thought when we got rid of Cesar Izturis that those days were over.
I mean, if you're going to trade for Lopez, at least tell me that you're during it as insurance, just in case DeRosa's heart isn't fine, and not because you're actually looking to hand Lopez a starting job. And please don't tell me you'd trade more than a single B-grade prospect for him. Hendry has made two of the biggest steals in recent trading history in his acquisitions of Lee and Ramirez; let's not give away all that good will by making idiotic moves right when we need you the most, Jim.
I guess I'm worried about panic setting in. This team was built to win now, and everyone knows it, and any suggestion that it's not going to happen seems to be leading Hendry and Piniella to want to change whatever they can. For his part, at least Piniella said that he plans on keeping the lineup how it is right now:
1. Theriot
2. Soriano
3. Lee
4. Ramirez
5. Fukudome
6. DeRosa
7. Soto
8. Pie
9. P
I will continue my objection to trading for someone to possibly replace Pie in center. Put Fukudome in center and Murton in right. Okay, it's probably a slight defensive liability, but Murton gets on base, man. And as I've said several times in recent posts, Byrd and Crisp do not. Are a few balls that get cut off before reaching the gap worth 40 points of OBP?
The rotation is expected to be announced tomorrow. Marquis had another good outing today - though he had a rough first inning (having started with a 6-0 lead), he settled down after that and ended up allowing just the three runs (which came on a single home run in the first) on four hits, with five Ks in 4.1 innings. Afterwards, Piniella said that Marquis hasn't done anything this spring to suggest he wouldn't be in the rotation. To me, that points to Dempster being the odd man out - he's done a fine job, but as I said last post, his ERA is the highest of those three guys competing for the two spots, plus Dempster has bullpen experience. The question, of course, is what good a non-closing Dempster is in the bullpen; we saw how rough he could be in non-save situations, so do you trust him as a 2-3 inning guy every fourth or fifth day?
I'll have another post after we learn the rotation. Baseball is a week away, guys.
Thursday, March 20, 2008
Making a mountain out of a mole Hill
I know, I know - it's spring training. But just when I think I have a handle on what the Cubs are going to do, or should do, a guy looks better or worse and makes me rethink everything, which makes me wonder how Lou is going to handle this.
* Murton was 2-for-4 with two doubles and two runs scored against the Rockies today; he's hitting .354 in the spring and I think he has to go north and stay with the team. Why would you get rid of this guy when he's proven he can hit and get on base? Okay, he's not a great defender in right and he probably can't play center, which means you probably can't start him unless Fukudome moves to center. And either way he's not a huge power guy, which is what you'd to get from a corner OF (not that Fukudome is expected to be a huge power guy either, of course, and at least Murton's hitting right now). But the main point is, why would you trade this guy for Marlon Byrd, which is apparently what the Cubs wanted to do a couple months ago? Marlon Byrd? He doesn't have any power either and doesn't get on base like Murton (.334 career, although .355 last year). Yes, he can play center, but he plays it below-average according to the fielding stats (although we all know that fielding stats aren't necessarily the most reliable things on earth). Murton's stats are slightly above average, and he's been worth 6.2 wins over replacement the last two years, while Byrd has been worth just 3.9. And Murton hits lefties, which is what you supposedly want, Hendry! In fact, he kills them - .326 with a .909 OPS career. What is the problem here?
* I'm starting to think that the rotation issue is going to be resolved by Rich Hill pitching his way right out of it. Hill started today, and the good news is he only allowed one hit. The bad news is he walked six in one and a third, allowing two ER (three total). His spring ERA is now 7.11, which would probably get him a nice sponsorship deal if he worked for the White Sox. I'm not sure what to do with Hill right now - by most accounts he hasn't looked very good, and I hope it doesn't have anything to do with doubling his workload from 99 innings in 2006 to 195 last year. He was a solid #3 last year, going 11-8 with a 3.92 ERA (119 ERA+), and you hate to lose a lefty from your rotation. But with Lieber, Dempster and Marquis all pitching great right now, and with the expectations high around here, can we possibly afford to let Hill pitch his way out of this with the big club?
* Meanwhile, Neal Cotts, who has seemed to pitch himself off the team several times this spring, went two innings today, giving up a hit and two walks but allowing no runs. He even got the win! Kerry Wood also returned from back spasms to throw an inning; he allowed two hits and a run, but he did strike out two. Michael Wuertz continues to look like the best guy in the pen, striking out two and allowing no hits in 1.1 innings. In 8.0 spring innings, Wuertz has allowed five hits, struck out 13, and has an ERA of triple bagels. Wuertz has always been kind of overlooked - his career ERA+ is 127, and his K/9 is nearly 10. Let's hope he keeps this up. Marmol's been looking a little shaky, which means we need a shutdown guy in the middle. Although even if Marmol were looking great, who doesn't want more shutdown guys in the middle?
(I just looked and Marmol's spring ERA is 2.08. Maybe not that shaky. Although he's walked six in 8.2 innings, so.)
* Marquis is apparently being dangled as trade bait. Which I understand - but his spring ERA is 1.93! Okay, so he'll probably turn into a pumpkin sometime around July 1 - last year his first half ERA was 3.67 and his second half ERA was 5.73 - but he eats innings (200+ in two of the last four years) and is capable of winning 15 games (he did it in 2004), and yes, I know wins are a bad way to judge a pitcher but the point is that he's had decent years. He's only 29. He's lighting it up this spring and he says he wants to be a Cub. I know anyone who falls out with Piniella tends to be gone the next day, although if you really look at Marquis' comments they don't seem unfair, and he's certainly heeded Lou's advice of letting his pitching make the case for his inclusion in the rotation. And need I remind anyone that he threw our only complete game shutout - only complete game, period - last year?
If I were making the rotation right now, I think I'd go Zambrano, Lilly, Lieber, Marquis, Hill, in that order, with Dempster as maybe long-man/spot-starter and Marshall, sorry, probably at Iowa. Dempster has looked great at times, but his ERA is 4.50, so he has had some blow-up moments. Yes, Lilly and Hill both have worse ERAs this spring, but with all due respect, they were both starters last year, which means they have less to prove. If I'm Lou, I clap Dempster on the back, congratulate him on a pretty good spring, and tell him that he's first into the rotation if anyone goes down, but right now we like him better as a guy who maybe goes 2-3 innings or helps break up the rotation on occasion if there are a lot of games in a row.
I still can't believe I feel like I'm worried about the Cubs having too many good players, although I've probably got the rose-colored glasses on a bit. After all, it's easy to look at any bad spring and say "Well, it's just spring training," while simultaneously looking at the good springs and touting them as proof that these guys are ready to rock the house come March 31. I just hope that whoever is on the 25-man come March 31 is ready to rock the house; I'm not prepared for the season to start with a loss to fucking Milwaukee.
* Murton was 2-for-4 with two doubles and two runs scored against the Rockies today; he's hitting .354 in the spring and I think he has to go north and stay with the team. Why would you get rid of this guy when he's proven he can hit and get on base? Okay, he's not a great defender in right and he probably can't play center, which means you probably can't start him unless Fukudome moves to center. And either way he's not a huge power guy, which is what you'd to get from a corner OF (not that Fukudome is expected to be a huge power guy either, of course, and at least Murton's hitting right now). But the main point is, why would you trade this guy for Marlon Byrd, which is apparently what the Cubs wanted to do a couple months ago? Marlon Byrd? He doesn't have any power either and doesn't get on base like Murton (.334 career, although .355 last year). Yes, he can play center, but he plays it below-average according to the fielding stats (although we all know that fielding stats aren't necessarily the most reliable things on earth). Murton's stats are slightly above average, and he's been worth 6.2 wins over replacement the last two years, while Byrd has been worth just 3.9. And Murton hits lefties, which is what you supposedly want, Hendry! In fact, he kills them - .326 with a .909 OPS career. What is the problem here?
* I'm starting to think that the rotation issue is going to be resolved by Rich Hill pitching his way right out of it. Hill started today, and the good news is he only allowed one hit. The bad news is he walked six in one and a third, allowing two ER (three total). His spring ERA is now 7.11, which would probably get him a nice sponsorship deal if he worked for the White Sox. I'm not sure what to do with Hill right now - by most accounts he hasn't looked very good, and I hope it doesn't have anything to do with doubling his workload from 99 innings in 2006 to 195 last year. He was a solid #3 last year, going 11-8 with a 3.92 ERA (119 ERA+), and you hate to lose a lefty from your rotation. But with Lieber, Dempster and Marquis all pitching great right now, and with the expectations high around here, can we possibly afford to let Hill pitch his way out of this with the big club?
* Meanwhile, Neal Cotts, who has seemed to pitch himself off the team several times this spring, went two innings today, giving up a hit and two walks but allowing no runs. He even got the win! Kerry Wood also returned from back spasms to throw an inning; he allowed two hits and a run, but he did strike out two. Michael Wuertz continues to look like the best guy in the pen, striking out two and allowing no hits in 1.1 innings. In 8.0 spring innings, Wuertz has allowed five hits, struck out 13, and has an ERA of triple bagels. Wuertz has always been kind of overlooked - his career ERA+ is 127, and his K/9 is nearly 10. Let's hope he keeps this up. Marmol's been looking a little shaky, which means we need a shutdown guy in the middle. Although even if Marmol were looking great, who doesn't want more shutdown guys in the middle?
(I just looked and Marmol's spring ERA is 2.08. Maybe not that shaky. Although he's walked six in 8.2 innings, so.)
* Marquis is apparently being dangled as trade bait. Which I understand - but his spring ERA is 1.93! Okay, so he'll probably turn into a pumpkin sometime around July 1 - last year his first half ERA was 3.67 and his second half ERA was 5.73 - but he eats innings (200+ in two of the last four years) and is capable of winning 15 games (he did it in 2004), and yes, I know wins are a bad way to judge a pitcher but the point is that he's had decent years. He's only 29. He's lighting it up this spring and he says he wants to be a Cub. I know anyone who falls out with Piniella tends to be gone the next day, although if you really look at Marquis' comments they don't seem unfair, and he's certainly heeded Lou's advice of letting his pitching make the case for his inclusion in the rotation. And need I remind anyone that he threw our only complete game shutout - only complete game, period - last year?
If I were making the rotation right now, I think I'd go Zambrano, Lilly, Lieber, Marquis, Hill, in that order, with Dempster as maybe long-man/spot-starter and Marshall, sorry, probably at Iowa. Dempster has looked great at times, but his ERA is 4.50, so he has had some blow-up moments. Yes, Lilly and Hill both have worse ERAs this spring, but with all due respect, they were both starters last year, which means they have less to prove. If I'm Lou, I clap Dempster on the back, congratulate him on a pretty good spring, and tell him that he's first into the rotation if anyone goes down, but right now we like him better as a guy who maybe goes 2-3 innings or helps break up the rotation on occasion if there are a lot of games in a row.
I still can't believe I feel like I'm worried about the Cubs having too many good players, although I've probably got the rose-colored glasses on a bit. After all, it's easy to look at any bad spring and say "Well, it's just spring training," while simultaneously looking at the good springs and touting them as proof that these guys are ready to rock the house come March 31. I just hope that whoever is on the 25-man come March 31 is ready to rock the house; I'm not prepared for the season to start with a loss to fucking Milwaukee.
Monday, March 17, 2008
Two weeks and counting
It's hard to believe that the new baseball season is only 14 days away. Possibly as hard as it is to believe that the Cubs actually seem to have too many decent starting pitchers. With that in mind, a few things to look at as the season approaches.
Item #1: Who's Going North
The Cubs will meet Milwaukee on March 31 with a 25-man roster. Assuming it's 13 position players and 12 pitchers, here's who I think we're looking at:
Infield: Lee, DeRosa, Theriot, Ramirez
Outfield: Soriano, Pie, Fukudome
Catchers: Soto, Blanco
Reserves: Ward, Fontenot, Murton, Fuld
Starters: Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster, Lieber, Hill, Marquis
Relievers: Wood, Wuertz, Hart, Marmol, Howry, Eyre
It wasn't exactly an easy pick, as I'm sure it won't be for Lou. Other possibilities include Hoffpauir, Cedeno, and Patterson, but I think all three start the year at Iowa (ditto for Koyie Hill, who will probably only get called up if there's an injury). As for pitchers, I'm not entirely sure how the starter logjam gets resolved without a trade, and I suppose Hart might start the year in the minors, though he looked pretty good last year and so far this spring. It's hard to believe Marshall will have to start the year in AAA, but unless Marquis gets moved I don't think Marshall's spring performances have been compelling enough. It's weird to think that the Cubs have too many good players, although it's possible that I like a lot of these guys more than is rational.
We should also note that the potential addition of Brian Roberts changes the list quite a bit (in particular, it probably relegates Fontenot to Iowa, which might not be the worst thing ever), as would the addition of that center fielder Hendry wants, be it Coco Crisp, Marlon Byrd, or whomever. (I think Fuld would be the casualty here, unless Murton were traded.)
Personally I don't want Crisp or Byrd. Why do we need them? Fukudome and Soriano are both capable of playing center - even if the latter clearly doesn't like it - and Murton can play the corners (though he's had some fielding struggles when stuck in right). More importantly, Murton's career OBP is .365, which is pretty dang respectable. Crisp's is .329; Byrd's is .334. You know what this team doesn't need? More assholes who can't get on base. Why not just see what Pie can do rather than hitting the panic button and jerking him around like last year? This team oughta have enough bats that you can bury Pie in the 8th hole if he's not hitting and he's a good defender. And if it's really that bad stick Fukudome in center and Murton in right.
Item #2: Opening Day Batting Order
Here's what I think it will be:
1. Soriano
2. Theriot
3. Lee
4. Ramirez
5. Fukudome
6. DeRosa
7. Soto
8. Pie
9. Pitcher
Here's what I would like it to be:
1. Theriot
2. Fukudome
3. Lee
4. Ramirez
5. Soriano
6. DeRosa
7. Soto
8. Pie
9. Pitcher
I realize that Theriot at the top of the order looks a little silly when his OBP was .326 last year. But it was .412 in 53 games in 2006; now that he's used to playing a full season, maybe he can turn it back up. He's hit all right in spring training, although he needs to take more walks. At any rate, it's good to have speed at the top of the order and Soriano isn't running much these days. That 2-through-5 would be great as long as Lee and Fukudome start hitting (I hope to crap that the Wrigley fans don't boo Fukudome if he starts slowly), and 6-7-8 actually has a lot of potential if DeRo keeps hitting for us, Soto lives up to his potential from last year, and Pie lives up to his potential in general. Really, if everyone does what they're capable of doing this is easily the best lineup in the NL Central and probably not worse than third in the league. That's a pretty big "if" though, as evidenced by the general lack of home runs last season despite three guys who are capable of going for 40.
It should again of course be noted that things will be a bit different if Roberts comes aboard. To wit:
1. Roberts
2. Soriano
3. Lee
4. Ramirez
5. Fukudome
6. Soto
7. Pie
8. Theriot
9. Pitcher
Yeah, I would move Soriano back up to second if we actually had a reliable leadoff guy who could steal bases. Soriano needs to be in a place where he can drive in runs; otherwise, his low OBP and high SLG are kinda being wasted. The only universe in which it makes sense to hit Soriano leadoff is one in which he's convinced himself that he has to hit leadoff and won't produce anywhere else. I think the experiment with moving him last year was abandoned too quickly; how much was 40 total PAs going to tell us? On the other hand, the pressure to win this year is probably even greater than it was last year, so if Soriano is moved and struggles early, there's going to be a clamor to hit him leadoff again. I think only the presence of Roberts - a natural leadoff hitter convincingly better-suited for that spot than Soriano (unlike Theriot, who was even worse at getting on base last year than Fonzie was) - might keep Soriano from spending the bulk of the year hitting leadoff. I suppose if he hits 46 home runs again it might not matter, but just think what those 46 home runs might do if more came with men on base.
Item #3: Johnny, Are You Worried Yet?
I'm certainly not ready to hand the Cubs the World Series, no matter how symmetrical, nor even the NL. I think we're definitely the favorites for the division, particularly since we underachieved last year and should field a stronger lineup this year, but I'm still looking at the Brewers with some trepidation. The rest of the division, maybe not so much - the Pirates look awful, the Cardinals seem ready to collapse, I have no idea who's going to get the ball to Jose Valverde in Houston, and the Reds are probably a year away, although with Dusty at the helm trying to get Adam Dunn to strike out 300 times, one wonders if they'll ever get there. The rest of the league is less of a layup; the whole East is kind of scary with the possible exception of Washington (Florida wouldn't be scary if they didn't have our number for some reason) and we struggled against the West last year. But with a little seasoning, I think we'd be a tougher out in the playoffs than last year.
I always hate to get ahead of myself with the Cubs. It never seems to turn out well. But I like rooting for this team a lot right now. Hopefully I'll like it even more in five months.
Item #1: Who's Going North
The Cubs will meet Milwaukee on March 31 with a 25-man roster. Assuming it's 13 position players and 12 pitchers, here's who I think we're looking at:
Infield: Lee, DeRosa, Theriot, Ramirez
Outfield: Soriano, Pie, Fukudome
Catchers: Soto, Blanco
Reserves: Ward, Fontenot, Murton, Fuld
Starters: Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster, Lieber, Hill, Marquis
Relievers: Wood, Wuertz, Hart, Marmol, Howry, Eyre
It wasn't exactly an easy pick, as I'm sure it won't be for Lou. Other possibilities include Hoffpauir, Cedeno, and Patterson, but I think all three start the year at Iowa (ditto for Koyie Hill, who will probably only get called up if there's an injury). As for pitchers, I'm not entirely sure how the starter logjam gets resolved without a trade, and I suppose Hart might start the year in the minors, though he looked pretty good last year and so far this spring. It's hard to believe Marshall will have to start the year in AAA, but unless Marquis gets moved I don't think Marshall's spring performances have been compelling enough. It's weird to think that the Cubs have too many good players, although it's possible that I like a lot of these guys more than is rational.
We should also note that the potential addition of Brian Roberts changes the list quite a bit (in particular, it probably relegates Fontenot to Iowa, which might not be the worst thing ever), as would the addition of that center fielder Hendry wants, be it Coco Crisp, Marlon Byrd, or whomever. (I think Fuld would be the casualty here, unless Murton were traded.)
Personally I don't want Crisp or Byrd. Why do we need them? Fukudome and Soriano are both capable of playing center - even if the latter clearly doesn't like it - and Murton can play the corners (though he's had some fielding struggles when stuck in right). More importantly, Murton's career OBP is .365, which is pretty dang respectable. Crisp's is .329; Byrd's is .334. You know what this team doesn't need? More assholes who can't get on base. Why not just see what Pie can do rather than hitting the panic button and jerking him around like last year? This team oughta have enough bats that you can bury Pie in the 8th hole if he's not hitting and he's a good defender. And if it's really that bad stick Fukudome in center and Murton in right.
Item #2: Opening Day Batting Order
Here's what I think it will be:
1. Soriano
2. Theriot
3. Lee
4. Ramirez
5. Fukudome
6. DeRosa
7. Soto
8. Pie
9. Pitcher
Here's what I would like it to be:
1. Theriot
2. Fukudome
3. Lee
4. Ramirez
5. Soriano
6. DeRosa
7. Soto
8. Pie
9. Pitcher
I realize that Theriot at the top of the order looks a little silly when his OBP was .326 last year. But it was .412 in 53 games in 2006; now that he's used to playing a full season, maybe he can turn it back up. He's hit all right in spring training, although he needs to take more walks. At any rate, it's good to have speed at the top of the order and Soriano isn't running much these days. That 2-through-5 would be great as long as Lee and Fukudome start hitting (I hope to crap that the Wrigley fans don't boo Fukudome if he starts slowly), and 6-7-8 actually has a lot of potential if DeRo keeps hitting for us, Soto lives up to his potential from last year, and Pie lives up to his potential in general. Really, if everyone does what they're capable of doing this is easily the best lineup in the NL Central and probably not worse than third in the league. That's a pretty big "if" though, as evidenced by the general lack of home runs last season despite three guys who are capable of going for 40.
It should again of course be noted that things will be a bit different if Roberts comes aboard. To wit:
1. Roberts
2. Soriano
3. Lee
4. Ramirez
5. Fukudome
6. Soto
7. Pie
8. Theriot
9. Pitcher
Yeah, I would move Soriano back up to second if we actually had a reliable leadoff guy who could steal bases. Soriano needs to be in a place where he can drive in runs; otherwise, his low OBP and high SLG are kinda being wasted. The only universe in which it makes sense to hit Soriano leadoff is one in which he's convinced himself that he has to hit leadoff and won't produce anywhere else. I think the experiment with moving him last year was abandoned too quickly; how much was 40 total PAs going to tell us? On the other hand, the pressure to win this year is probably even greater than it was last year, so if Soriano is moved and struggles early, there's going to be a clamor to hit him leadoff again. I think only the presence of Roberts - a natural leadoff hitter convincingly better-suited for that spot than Soriano (unlike Theriot, who was even worse at getting on base last year than Fonzie was) - might keep Soriano from spending the bulk of the year hitting leadoff. I suppose if he hits 46 home runs again it might not matter, but just think what those 46 home runs might do if more came with men on base.
Item #3: Johnny, Are You Worried Yet?
I'm certainly not ready to hand the Cubs the World Series, no matter how symmetrical, nor even the NL. I think we're definitely the favorites for the division, particularly since we underachieved last year and should field a stronger lineup this year, but I'm still looking at the Brewers with some trepidation. The rest of the division, maybe not so much - the Pirates look awful, the Cardinals seem ready to collapse, I have no idea who's going to get the ball to Jose Valverde in Houston, and the Reds are probably a year away, although with Dusty at the helm trying to get Adam Dunn to strike out 300 times, one wonders if they'll ever get there. The rest of the league is less of a layup; the whole East is kind of scary with the possible exception of Washington (Florida wouldn't be scary if they didn't have our number for some reason) and we struggled against the West last year. But with a little seasoning, I think we'd be a tougher out in the playoffs than last year.
I always hate to get ahead of myself with the Cubs. It never seems to turn out well. But I like rooting for this team a lot right now. Hopefully I'll like it even more in five months.
Friday, December 14, 2007
The offseason so far
A division winner that loses in the first round of the playoff should always be looking to make some changes in the offseason, especially when you're the Cubs and you limped to an 85-win division title in baseball's worst division despite a historic spending spree in the 2006 offseason. There's still quite a ways to go in the 2007 offseason, of course, but it looks like the Cubs' biggest move has probably already been made, so let's look back and take stock on what's gone on so far.
November 3: Cubs exercise 2008 mutual option on Daryle Ward, decline options on Cliff Floyd and Steve Trachsel.
Good moves all around. Ward proved to be a surprisingly valuable bat off the bench in 2007, with a .436 OBP in 110 at-bats. He should continue to be a solid PH bat plus occasional fill-in for Derrek Lee or perhaps in right field. Floyd never lived up to expectations; due to injuries he racked up a mere 282 at-bats, and while his OBP was a pretty decent .373, he never really flashed the power you want out of a corner OF bat. Trachsel was a panic trade to begin with and probably has no business playing baseball ever again.
November 12: Cubs trade Jacque Jones to Detroit for Omar Infante and cash.
Despite spending a lot of early 2007 suffering through a logjam in the infield, the Cubs finally dumped Jones - whom they were prepared to give away for zero cents on the dollar in July - but received Infante in return, an average infield glove with a career OBP under .300. Shows you how much we wanted to show Jones the door, doesn't it?
November 13: Cubs trade Craig Monroe to Minnesota for PTBNL.
Even though the 2007 season ended with a second-half charge and playoff berth, little to none of that can be attributed to Hendry's in-season moves. Monroe was one of those guys who just didn't work out; he hit .204 as a Cub, showing none of the hits-lefties-well pop for which he was acquired but all of the getting-on-base problems he'd already displayed in Detroit, leading the Tigers to push him out the door. Good riddance.
November 26: Cubs sign Kerry Wood to one-year contract.
Wood apparently had better offers elsewhere but chose to stay in Chicago, which in my opinion is the difference between him and Mark Prior (about whom more anon). The one-year deal is nice for both sides; it keeps the Cubs from over-committing to Wood, while it lets Wood show he can stay healthy for a full season (if he can), which I'm not sure has ever happened. Hopefully he's a decent bullpen arm and possibly even challenges for the closer's job.
December 4: Cubs trade Omar Infante and Will Ohman to Atlanta for Jose Ascanio.
I hope Infante hadn't spent much time house-hunting. In effect, the Cubs rid themselves of the two most hated players on the roster - Jacque Jones and Ohman - for a single 22-year-old relief pitcher who sucked in 16 innings for the Braves last year and who's probably headed for Iowa anyway. Really it was just a matter of addition by subtraction. Ohman had been a career Cub (he made his first big league appearance in 2000!) despite never being very good - even his sub-3.00 ERA in 2005 really doesn't tell you the full story, and seeing him come into the game never failed to give me the shakes. Good luck, Atlanta.
December 6: Cubs acquire Tim Lahey from Tampa Bay for cash.
Whatever. Lahey was picked from Minnesota in the Rule V draft and the Cubs bought him off Tampa. He had a solid if unspectacular AA campaign at New Britain last year. Wa-hoo.
December 12: Cubs non-tender Mark Prior.
Prior made more than $3.5 million last year to do absolutely nothing, and a similar amount in 2006 to do practically nothing. For more than $7 million in the last two years, the Cubs got one win, six losses, and a 7.21 ERA out of Prior, and due to arbitration rules would have been forced to offer him a deal worth no less than $2.9 million or so for 2007, despite not knowing when he would be major-league ready or even if he would be major-league ready. Reportedly the Cubs offered to non-tender him, then offer a lower-paying deal with lots of performance incentives, which Prior wasn't too keen on.
Which kind of pisses me off. Here's a guy who the Cubs stuck by, letting him take his time with injuries, paying him millions for a lost 2007 season, and all they ask him is to take less up-front money in 2008, and make his money on the field. And guess what? He didn't want to do that. Frankly, this baffles me, because I'm not sure who's going to sign Prior to a contract of more than a year and more than maybe $1.5 million. Even the optimistic forecast says he won't be back until May, and it remains to be seen whether he can regain his 2005 form (11-7, 3.67), let alone his 2003 form (18-6, 2.43). I wasn't sitting at the table during the negotiations, but unless the Cubs suggested he play for free, walking away from the Cubs at this point in Prior's career just seems petty and selfish on his part. I wanted the Cubs to give him one more shot in 2008 because I was afraid he'd figure it out with some other team, but really, why should the Cubs pay him for another season that might end up being lost? It's time to do what columnists have been suggesting for years now and just move on. Thanks for 2003, Mark - except the last inning of it - and I'm sorry what Dusty Baker did to your arm, but don't let the Under Armour doors hit you on the way out.
December ?? - Cubs sign Kosuke Fukudome.
This one's not official pending a physical, but PECOTA projects a .401 OBP for him in 2008. Finally, a guy who can fucking get on base.
November 3: Cubs exercise 2008 mutual option on Daryle Ward, decline options on Cliff Floyd and Steve Trachsel.
Good moves all around. Ward proved to be a surprisingly valuable bat off the bench in 2007, with a .436 OBP in 110 at-bats. He should continue to be a solid PH bat plus occasional fill-in for Derrek Lee or perhaps in right field. Floyd never lived up to expectations; due to injuries he racked up a mere 282 at-bats, and while his OBP was a pretty decent .373, he never really flashed the power you want out of a corner OF bat. Trachsel was a panic trade to begin with and probably has no business playing baseball ever again.
November 12: Cubs trade Jacque Jones to Detroit for Omar Infante and cash.
Despite spending a lot of early 2007 suffering through a logjam in the infield, the Cubs finally dumped Jones - whom they were prepared to give away for zero cents on the dollar in July - but received Infante in return, an average infield glove with a career OBP under .300. Shows you how much we wanted to show Jones the door, doesn't it?
November 13: Cubs trade Craig Monroe to Minnesota for PTBNL.
Even though the 2007 season ended with a second-half charge and playoff berth, little to none of that can be attributed to Hendry's in-season moves. Monroe was one of those guys who just didn't work out; he hit .204 as a Cub, showing none of the hits-lefties-well pop for which he was acquired but all of the getting-on-base problems he'd already displayed in Detroit, leading the Tigers to push him out the door. Good riddance.
November 26: Cubs sign Kerry Wood to one-year contract.
Wood apparently had better offers elsewhere but chose to stay in Chicago, which in my opinion is the difference between him and Mark Prior (about whom more anon). The one-year deal is nice for both sides; it keeps the Cubs from over-committing to Wood, while it lets Wood show he can stay healthy for a full season (if he can), which I'm not sure has ever happened. Hopefully he's a decent bullpen arm and possibly even challenges for the closer's job.
December 4: Cubs trade Omar Infante and Will Ohman to Atlanta for Jose Ascanio.
I hope Infante hadn't spent much time house-hunting. In effect, the Cubs rid themselves of the two most hated players on the roster - Jacque Jones and Ohman - for a single 22-year-old relief pitcher who sucked in 16 innings for the Braves last year and who's probably headed for Iowa anyway. Really it was just a matter of addition by subtraction. Ohman had been a career Cub (he made his first big league appearance in 2000!) despite never being very good - even his sub-3.00 ERA in 2005 really doesn't tell you the full story, and seeing him come into the game never failed to give me the shakes. Good luck, Atlanta.
December 6: Cubs acquire Tim Lahey from Tampa Bay for cash.
Whatever. Lahey was picked from Minnesota in the Rule V draft and the Cubs bought him off Tampa. He had a solid if unspectacular AA campaign at New Britain last year. Wa-hoo.
December 12: Cubs non-tender Mark Prior.
Prior made more than $3.5 million last year to do absolutely nothing, and a similar amount in 2006 to do practically nothing. For more than $7 million in the last two years, the Cubs got one win, six losses, and a 7.21 ERA out of Prior, and due to arbitration rules would have been forced to offer him a deal worth no less than $2.9 million or so for 2007, despite not knowing when he would be major-league ready or even if he would be major-league ready. Reportedly the Cubs offered to non-tender him, then offer a lower-paying deal with lots of performance incentives, which Prior wasn't too keen on.
Which kind of pisses me off. Here's a guy who the Cubs stuck by, letting him take his time with injuries, paying him millions for a lost 2007 season, and all they ask him is to take less up-front money in 2008, and make his money on the field. And guess what? He didn't want to do that. Frankly, this baffles me, because I'm not sure who's going to sign Prior to a contract of more than a year and more than maybe $1.5 million. Even the optimistic forecast says he won't be back until May, and it remains to be seen whether he can regain his 2005 form (11-7, 3.67), let alone his 2003 form (18-6, 2.43). I wasn't sitting at the table during the negotiations, but unless the Cubs suggested he play for free, walking away from the Cubs at this point in Prior's career just seems petty and selfish on his part. I wanted the Cubs to give him one more shot in 2008 because I was afraid he'd figure it out with some other team, but really, why should the Cubs pay him for another season that might end up being lost? It's time to do what columnists have been suggesting for years now and just move on. Thanks for 2003, Mark - except the last inning of it - and I'm sorry what Dusty Baker did to your arm, but don't let the Under Armour doors hit you on the way out.
December ?? - Cubs sign Kosuke Fukudome.
This one's not official pending a physical, but PECOTA projects a .401 OBP for him in 2008. Finally, a guy who can fucking get on base.
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