I know what I said about recapping series, but fuck it - it's not every day I get to sit and watch a Cubs game at all, let alone one won with a walk-off homer in extras.
I had been out and got in front of a TV in the top of the 7th just after Cotts walked two guys on eight pitches and was yanked for Marmol. (Jesus Christ, by the way. Are the Cubs ever going to have a lefty specialist who actually gets lefties out when called upon? Looking through their history, they basically haven't had a consistently good lefty reliever since Randy Myers, and since he was the closer that doesn't exactly count.) Marmol did a great job cleaning up the mess in the 7th, but somehow fell apart in the 8th against a significantly less dangerous part of the order, blowing the save, and requiring Kevin Gregg's services an inning early.
I have to say I liked what Lou did here, whether it was intentional or not. At this point, Marmol is clearly your best bullpen pitcher and Gregg - for all his early tribulations - is pretty clearly #2. Bill James' concept of the "bullpen ace" recommends using your best guy in whatever situation deems it necessary rather than saving him to "close" a game that may never get to that point if you don't put the best guy in now, and Lou worked that well, bringing in Marmol an inning earlier than he clearly would have liked to put out Cotts' fire, and then bringing in Gregg to put out Marmol's. I was more shocked that Gregg not only proceeded to go two innings (I guess his knee was okay because it was warmer today?), but to look pretty darn good doing it, striking out the first two men he faced in the 8th and mowing down the 2-3-4 in the top of the 9th.
Aside from the obvious, there was no more exciting play in the game than Soriano's assist to double Duncan off second to end the top of the 10th - he really whipped that thing out of his glove, although it wasn't exactly great baserunning on Duncan's part. But that one roused me as much as anything before the homer. And actually, the bullpen did a pretty decent job after Marmol - neither Gregg, nor Heilman, nor Guzman gave up a hit. I think we'd all like to see some more of that.
As for A-Ram... well, what can you say? He did it again.
The Cubs certainly haven't lacked for drama this season, have they? So far their seven wins include three in which they scored the winning run in their last at-bats (they also have two losses in which the opposing team did the same). Maybe this is part of a plan to make sure they don't fall apart in the playoffs again - play a game with playoff-like intensity every goddamn day, just to get acclimated to it. Come October, it'll be just like any other game! Or maybe everyone playing and watching will be dead of stress-induced heart attacks. Man, this team.
Saturday, April 18, 2009
FU-KU-DO-ME
At the risk of "talking during the no-hitter," as it were, remember how crazy we went for Kosuke Fukudome in the first months of the '08 season? Especially right at the start when he came flying out of the gate. Fukudome's stats through the first ten games of 2008:
.333/.447/.487, .934 OPS, 3 2B, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 8/7 BB/K
(And that's bearing in mind that in games 9 and 10 he went a combined o-for-8.)
Of course, we all know what happened next. Over the course of the year, Fukudome's numbers kept dropping; in the second half he went just .217/.314/.326, and in the final two months he hit under .200, getting so bad that he only started 9 games in September.
Coming into this season I said the following:
"[W]hat to expect out of Fukudome is entirely unclear; watching him bat in the second half of last year was pretty depressing given how great he looked the first couple of months. Like most Cubs fans, I still desperately want the guy to hit, and at least he can take a walk now and again (leading the team last year with 81), but the days of thinking he could pop 20 homers out of Wrigley and go for a .400 OBP like last year's PECOTA projected are long gone. (For the record, this year's PECOTA pegs Kosuke at .386, which still seems awfully optimistic. But hey, Hideki Matsui improved in his second year in America.)"
Well, Fukudome may yet turn out to just be a first-half player. There aren't too many of those in the majors that I'm aware of - Alex Rodriguez, despite his reputation, has virtually identical career numbers before and after the break, and while Dave Winfield (once pejoratively described as "Mr. May" by George Steinbrenner) does have better career first half stats, they're nothing along the lines of Fukudome's 2008 dropoff. But the guy has only been in the majors for one year. While a quick check of my copy of BP '09 reveals that the Japanese season is not shorter than the US version - Fukudome had 578 PAs in 2006, compared to 590 with the Cubs last year - it's clearly less strenuous. Every game is indoors in nearly identical stadia, the degree of travel is significantly less (Japan quite obviously has nothing like flying to the West Coast and back within a week), and of course the level of competition isn't exactly identical.
My speculation has been that Fukudome's initial success had to do with him not being a known quantity - you see guys come up and rake all the time because pitchers don't necessarily know how to pitch them yet. Eventually the league caught up with Fukudome, and he had trouble making adjustments, instead overdramatizing his infamous bailout swing and turning into a corkscrew as a result. Come the offseason, it was up to Fukudome to make his own adjustments or risk becoming one of MLB's most expensive pine jockeys.
Well, it's early. But given that pitchers supposedly know how to pitch Fukudome now, maybe he's actually figured it out? Sure, he could just be a first-half guy, but on the other hand, maybe he'll be more adjusted to the rigors of MLB this year and be able to maintain his form. He probably won't do what he's doing in the first ten games all season - small sample sizes and all that. But given the bang with which he exploded onto the scene last year, would you believe his first ten games this year aren't just better, but significantly better?
.371/.477/.771, 1.249 OPS, 5 2B, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 8/6 BB/K
Yeah, he won't do that all year. A .771 slugging percentage would be the seventh-greatest year of all time, trailing only three seasons of Bonds and three seasons of Ruth. More likely than not he won't even turn in a .300/.400/.500, and he probably isn't going to hit 48 home runs and knock in 144. Ten days of stats really doesn't tell you much of anything, all told. (Milton Bradley probably won't hit .056 all year, either.)
But with that said, I think - I hope - that his start to this year being even faster than his start to last year says something about the steps forward he's taken as a player. Because if he falls off the table again, Jim Edmonds and Mark DeRosa won't be there with surprising seasons to pick up the slack, and even if Bradley can stay healthy he'll probably only give you what we were hoping from Kosuke in '08 in the first place. This team needs a .300/.400/.450-like line from Kosuke, with 15-20 homers and maybe 70-80 driven in. Only time will tell if he truly has the ability or if he just really loves hitting in April.
.333/.447/.487, .934 OPS, 3 2B, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 8/7 BB/K
(And that's bearing in mind that in games 9 and 10 he went a combined o-for-8.)
Of course, we all know what happened next. Over the course of the year, Fukudome's numbers kept dropping; in the second half he went just .217/.314/.326, and in the final two months he hit under .200, getting so bad that he only started 9 games in September.
Coming into this season I said the following:
"[W]hat to expect out of Fukudome is entirely unclear; watching him bat in the second half of last year was pretty depressing given how great he looked the first couple of months. Like most Cubs fans, I still desperately want the guy to hit, and at least he can take a walk now and again (leading the team last year with 81), but the days of thinking he could pop 20 homers out of Wrigley and go for a .400 OBP like last year's PECOTA projected are long gone. (For the record, this year's PECOTA pegs Kosuke at .386, which still seems awfully optimistic. But hey, Hideki Matsui improved in his second year in America.)"
Well, Fukudome may yet turn out to just be a first-half player. There aren't too many of those in the majors that I'm aware of - Alex Rodriguez, despite his reputation, has virtually identical career numbers before and after the break, and while Dave Winfield (once pejoratively described as "Mr. May" by George Steinbrenner) does have better career first half stats, they're nothing along the lines of Fukudome's 2008 dropoff. But the guy has only been in the majors for one year. While a quick check of my copy of BP '09 reveals that the Japanese season is not shorter than the US version - Fukudome had 578 PAs in 2006, compared to 590 with the Cubs last year - it's clearly less strenuous. Every game is indoors in nearly identical stadia, the degree of travel is significantly less (Japan quite obviously has nothing like flying to the West Coast and back within a week), and of course the level of competition isn't exactly identical.
My speculation has been that Fukudome's initial success had to do with him not being a known quantity - you see guys come up and rake all the time because pitchers don't necessarily know how to pitch them yet. Eventually the league caught up with Fukudome, and he had trouble making adjustments, instead overdramatizing his infamous bailout swing and turning into a corkscrew as a result. Come the offseason, it was up to Fukudome to make his own adjustments or risk becoming one of MLB's most expensive pine jockeys.
Well, it's early. But given that pitchers supposedly know how to pitch Fukudome now, maybe he's actually figured it out? Sure, he could just be a first-half guy, but on the other hand, maybe he'll be more adjusted to the rigors of MLB this year and be able to maintain his form. He probably won't do what he's doing in the first ten games all season - small sample sizes and all that. But given the bang with which he exploded onto the scene last year, would you believe his first ten games this year aren't just better, but significantly better?
.371/.477/.771, 1.249 OPS, 5 2B, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 8/6 BB/K
Yeah, he won't do that all year. A .771 slugging percentage would be the seventh-greatest year of all time, trailing only three seasons of Bonds and three seasons of Ruth. More likely than not he won't even turn in a .300/.400/.500, and he probably isn't going to hit 48 home runs and knock in 144. Ten days of stats really doesn't tell you much of anything, all told. (Milton Bradley probably won't hit .056 all year, either.)
But with that said, I think - I hope - that his start to this year being even faster than his start to last year says something about the steps forward he's taken as a player. Because if he falls off the table again, Jim Edmonds and Mark DeRosa won't be there with surprising seasons to pick up the slack, and even if Bradley can stay healthy he'll probably only give you what we were hoping from Kosuke in '08 in the first place. This team needs a .300/.400/.450-like line from Kosuke, with 15-20 homers and maybe 70-80 driven in. Only time will tell if he truly has the ability or if he just really loves hitting in April.
Monday, April 13, 2009
Walk the (first base) line
In today's home opener, which the Cubs won 4-0 - more on that after the series concludes - the Cubs drew nine walks from Rockies pitching (six from starter Ubaldo Jimenez) and also took a hit by pitch (Reed Johnson, natch). This made ten free passes for the Cubs, just hours after receiving twelve (ten walks and two HBPs) from the Brewers in an 8-5 win. All told, the Cubs reached base 17 times against the Brewers and 19 times against the Rockies while failing to reach double digits in hits in either game. Recording nine or more walks and nine or fewer hits in consecutive games has only been accomplished 41 times since 1954 by any team; the last and only other Cubs team in that span to do it was the 1974 edition, which won at the Mets 5-4 on 9/15/74 in a game in which they had eight hits but eleven walks (plus an HBP), then won at the Phillies 4-2 two days later, a game in which they walked nine times but had just four hits.
Only once before in Cubs (post-1954) history had they recorded consecutive games with at least 17 times on base but single-digit hits. In 1980, the Cubs visited the Giants in August. On August 1, they had 8 hits, 8 walks, and a hit batsman, and won 5-3. The next day they had 9 hits and 9 walks but lost 8-5, with Dick Tidrow blowing a 5-4 lead by allowing four runs in the bottom of the 7th. Of course, those Cubs lost 98 games, so let's not read too much into this stat either way.
One more walk by the Cubs in today's game would have admitted them to an even more exclusive club of just nine teams (since 1954) with consecutive games featuring double-digit bases on balls but single-digit hits. (Somewhat amazingly, of the nine teams, just two won both games while three lost both.) Last team to do it: the 2002 Phillies, who lost a game 5-3 despite 10 walks and 8 hits (0-for-7 with RISP will do that to you), then won the next day 10-8 with the same walk and hit totals. (This time they went 3-for-14 with RISP, but more crucially, Expos starter Bartolo Colon walked five men in one inning - one intentionally - including three in a row to start the inning and then later one with the bases loaded to give the Phillies three runs in the inning - on one hit.)
Only once before in Cubs (post-1954) history had they recorded consecutive games with at least 17 times on base but single-digit hits. In 1980, the Cubs visited the Giants in August. On August 1, they had 8 hits, 8 walks, and a hit batsman, and won 5-3. The next day they had 9 hits and 9 walks but lost 8-5, with Dick Tidrow blowing a 5-4 lead by allowing four runs in the bottom of the 7th. Of course, those Cubs lost 98 games, so let's not read too much into this stat either way.
One more walk by the Cubs in today's game would have admitted them to an even more exclusive club of just nine teams (since 1954) with consecutive games featuring double-digit bases on balls but single-digit hits. (Somewhat amazingly, of the nine teams, just two won both games while three lost both.) Last team to do it: the 2002 Phillies, who lost a game 5-3 despite 10 walks and 8 hits (0-for-7 with RISP will do that to you), then won the next day 10-8 with the same walk and hit totals. (This time they went 3-for-14 with RISP, but more crucially, Expos starter Bartolo Colon walked five men in one inning - one intentionally - including three in a row to start the inning and then later one with the bases loaded to give the Phillies three runs in the inning - on one hit.)
Sunday, April 12, 2009
Series recap: Cubs at Brewers, April 10-12, 2009
Just win series.
That is the goal. But did we need to get this nerve-wracking this early in the year? Look, I'm ultimately not worried about the Brewers - their lineup is basically the same as last year's but their pitching, as far as I can tell, is significantly worse. But I'd still rather not give games to them in April or any other time.
April 10: Brewers 4, Cubs 3
Saw: None (at work), but was on phone and IM with my dad (who was watching) for most of game and was following on Gamecast
Blech. I may have overreacted a little; at first I thought this loss was more brutal than any of last year's, ignoring all the times Wood gave up three runs in the bottom of the ninth to blow a two-run lead. But it certainly wasn't pleasant. Milton Bradley's first Cub hit being a home run? Nice. Harden striking out ten Brewers in six innings and looking like his exhibition game at Yankee Stadium was, well, just that? Nicer. Koyie Hill homering to give the Cubs the lead in the sixth? Nicest. The Cubs bullpen? Least nice. Some of this I blame Lou for - it shouldn't have taken three pitchers to get out of the seventh and three more to get out of the eighth. Using two lefty specialists against the Brewers seemed particularly unnecessary - the Brewers hit righties so poorly they need Craig Counsell in there to break up their lineup. Really, you had to bring in Cotts just to face Craig Counsell? (And then he hits him and you've burned a pitcher.) Possibly not the best use of resources. And then Gregg adds a horrible ninth to his two appearances in the Astros series in which he got one shaky save and then was on the mound at the time of the ten-inning loss's completion. Good start to the closer tenure there.
April 11: Cubs 6, Brewers 5
Saw: Very little. We were in Culver's and the game was on TV in the background for Milwaukee's two runs in the seventh, but I missed everything else.
Not Z's best outing although it was a "quality start." I did manage to see the walk-happy bullpen show up again in the seventh - given how bad the Brewers' team OBP was last year, I don't know how you walk the bases loaded, even if it is Braun and Fielder and clearly you're terrified to pitch to them. And why even bring in Cotts when he's just going to walk a guy? Heilman sure looked good after giving up the go-ahead runs, though, huh? Reminds me of that game against the Rockies in 2007 when Howry gave up the go-ahead home run and then (after nearly being attacked Randy Myers-style) immediately settled down and worked quickly out of the inning. Soriano - well, what can you say? I just hope he keeps sockin' 'em out.
April 12: Cubs 8, Brewers 5
Saw: Bottom first, top second, bottom sixth through end of game
We went for dinner in the middle of the game, so I missed the ridiculous fourth inning, featuring five walks and a hit by pitch, and four runs scoring despite just one hit. Talk about being handed a game, although if not for Reed Johnson's heroics in the bottom of the fifth - which I didn't see live but which were replayed multiple times later in the game - it would have been handed right back. Truly, "P Fielder hit sacrifice fly to right," as the play-by-play on ESPN.com lists it, doesn't exactly do the encounter justice. Johnson may never be mistaken for an in-their-prime Ken Griffey Jr. or Andruw Jones, but he has made some epic catches for the Cubs since being signed just before the start of '08. Anyway, the Brewers issued 10 walks to the Cubs all told, six by Suppan, the starter, in just 3.2 innings. Just for good measure, they hit two more guys, for a total of twelve free passes. Total Cub hits in the game: five. Now that is called handing over a game. Man. But how about that team OBP for the Cubs!
Bad news: gee, Milton Bradley got injured. On the bright side, Kosuke is hitting .409, and if Bradley hadn't left the game, Johnson doesn't make that catch on Fielder. (I guess Fukudome might have, but hey. It worked out for now.) How about that middle of the Cubs order, huh? Lee hitting .080 and Bradley hitting .059? Heck of a start. (Although Lee did have 2 RBI with a sac fly and bases-loaded walk.)
As for Gregg... the less said, the better. He only looks worse in comparison with Marmol when Marmol blows away the side in the 8th and then Gregg seems like he's going to roll only to give up a two-out homer to make it 8-5, followed by a double and a walk before managing to strike out Fielder as the tying run. Frankly, I'm not sad to see Marmol remain in a setup role - people complain about the firmness of the closer's role when the team's best reliever - say, K-Rod in New York - is locked into "ninth inning with a lead" scenarios and only rarely pitches in any others, rather than being able to throw him into any late-game spot, including in the 7th or 8th, where a big out is needed. Keeping Marmol out of the designated closer spot allows him to do things like he did on Friday, coming into the game in the 7th with two on and one out (he's certainly the guy you want to see there because he gives up so few hits and even so few balls in play). You certainly wouldn't want to see Gregg in that spot, which is what would happen much more frequently were Marmol locked into the ninth. Really, while Gregg's ninth inning struggles have made the early part of the year a lot more heart-stopping than it really ought to be, it's better he's there - because the closer virtually always comes in with no one on base, it's an easier job and better suited for someone who isn't a shutdown reliever with a huge strikeout total and extremely low WHIP the way the Marmot is. It's understandable that Marmol wants the "closer" title - those guys make more money. (As it is, Gregg makes $4.2 million while Marmol makes $575,000.) But if Marmol keeps doing what he's doing, I foresee a nice payday for him down the line whether he gets the "closer" mantle or not. And if I were the Cubs, I'd tell him that (a) we still consider him the likeliest future closer but (b) honestly, we're using him right now in the way we feel gives him the most value. People love saves, but no one is going to miss a reliever who strikes out 114 guys in 87.1 innings.
Home opener! Bring on the Rockies.
That is the goal. But did we need to get this nerve-wracking this early in the year? Look, I'm ultimately not worried about the Brewers - their lineup is basically the same as last year's but their pitching, as far as I can tell, is significantly worse. But I'd still rather not give games to them in April or any other time.
April 10: Brewers 4, Cubs 3
Saw: None (at work), but was on phone and IM with my dad (who was watching) for most of game and was following on Gamecast
Blech. I may have overreacted a little; at first I thought this loss was more brutal than any of last year's, ignoring all the times Wood gave up three runs in the bottom of the ninth to blow a two-run lead. But it certainly wasn't pleasant. Milton Bradley's first Cub hit being a home run? Nice. Harden striking out ten Brewers in six innings and looking like his exhibition game at Yankee Stadium was, well, just that? Nicer. Koyie Hill homering to give the Cubs the lead in the sixth? Nicest. The Cubs bullpen? Least nice. Some of this I blame Lou for - it shouldn't have taken three pitchers to get out of the seventh and three more to get out of the eighth. Using two lefty specialists against the Brewers seemed particularly unnecessary - the Brewers hit righties so poorly they need Craig Counsell in there to break up their lineup. Really, you had to bring in Cotts just to face Craig Counsell? (And then he hits him and you've burned a pitcher.) Possibly not the best use of resources. And then Gregg adds a horrible ninth to his two appearances in the Astros series in which he got one shaky save and then was on the mound at the time of the ten-inning loss's completion. Good start to the closer tenure there.
April 11: Cubs 6, Brewers 5
Saw: Very little. We were in Culver's and the game was on TV in the background for Milwaukee's two runs in the seventh, but I missed everything else.
Not Z's best outing although it was a "quality start." I did manage to see the walk-happy bullpen show up again in the seventh - given how bad the Brewers' team OBP was last year, I don't know how you walk the bases loaded, even if it is Braun and Fielder and clearly you're terrified to pitch to them. And why even bring in Cotts when he's just going to walk a guy? Heilman sure looked good after giving up the go-ahead runs, though, huh? Reminds me of that game against the Rockies in 2007 when Howry gave up the go-ahead home run and then (after nearly being attacked Randy Myers-style) immediately settled down and worked quickly out of the inning. Soriano - well, what can you say? I just hope he keeps sockin' 'em out.
April 12: Cubs 8, Brewers 5
Saw: Bottom first, top second, bottom sixth through end of game
We went for dinner in the middle of the game, so I missed the ridiculous fourth inning, featuring five walks and a hit by pitch, and four runs scoring despite just one hit. Talk about being handed a game, although if not for Reed Johnson's heroics in the bottom of the fifth - which I didn't see live but which were replayed multiple times later in the game - it would have been handed right back. Truly, "P Fielder hit sacrifice fly to right," as the play-by-play on ESPN.com lists it, doesn't exactly do the encounter justice. Johnson may never be mistaken for an in-their-prime Ken Griffey Jr. or Andruw Jones, but he has made some epic catches for the Cubs since being signed just before the start of '08. Anyway, the Brewers issued 10 walks to the Cubs all told, six by Suppan, the starter, in just 3.2 innings. Just for good measure, they hit two more guys, for a total of twelve free passes. Total Cub hits in the game: five. Now that is called handing over a game. Man. But how about that team OBP for the Cubs!
Bad news: gee, Milton Bradley got injured. On the bright side, Kosuke is hitting .409, and if Bradley hadn't left the game, Johnson doesn't make that catch on Fielder. (I guess Fukudome might have, but hey. It worked out for now.) How about that middle of the Cubs order, huh? Lee hitting .080 and Bradley hitting .059? Heck of a start. (Although Lee did have 2 RBI with a sac fly and bases-loaded walk.)
As for Gregg... the less said, the better. He only looks worse in comparison with Marmol when Marmol blows away the side in the 8th and then Gregg seems like he's going to roll only to give up a two-out homer to make it 8-5, followed by a double and a walk before managing to strike out Fielder as the tying run. Frankly, I'm not sad to see Marmol remain in a setup role - people complain about the firmness of the closer's role when the team's best reliever - say, K-Rod in New York - is locked into "ninth inning with a lead" scenarios and only rarely pitches in any others, rather than being able to throw him into any late-game spot, including in the 7th or 8th, where a big out is needed. Keeping Marmol out of the designated closer spot allows him to do things like he did on Friday, coming into the game in the 7th with two on and one out (he's certainly the guy you want to see there because he gives up so few hits and even so few balls in play). You certainly wouldn't want to see Gregg in that spot, which is what would happen much more frequently were Marmol locked into the ninth. Really, while Gregg's ninth inning struggles have made the early part of the year a lot more heart-stopping than it really ought to be, it's better he's there - because the closer virtually always comes in with no one on base, it's an easier job and better suited for someone who isn't a shutdown reliever with a huge strikeout total and extremely low WHIP the way the Marmot is. It's understandable that Marmol wants the "closer" title - those guys make more money. (As it is, Gregg makes $4.2 million while Marmol makes $575,000.) But if Marmol keeps doing what he's doing, I foresee a nice payday for him down the line whether he gets the "closer" mantle or not. And if I were the Cubs, I'd tell him that (a) we still consider him the likeliest future closer but (b) honestly, we're using him right now in the way we feel gives him the most value. People love saves, but no one is going to miss a reliever who strikes out 114 guys in 87.1 innings.
Home opener! Bring on the Rockies.
Wednesday, April 08, 2009
Series recap: Cubs at Astros, April 6-8, 2009
Here's something I'm going to try this year - a recap following each series. We'll see how this goes since I don't always get a chance to watch the games and really, what are you getting out of a recap by someone who didn't see the game that you're not getting from anywhere else? Anyway.
April 6: Cubs 4, Astros 2
Saw: 9th inning (plus heard 8th on WGN)
Didn't see much of this one; I was still at work when it started and didn't get to a TV until the ninth inning. The bottom of the inning was plenty nerve-wracking, but hey, I saw the win. The box score shows Zambrano pitched fairly well in earning his first-ever Opening Day win (although he actually pitched better last year in a no-decision, statistically), and you have to like Soriano starting the year with a home run considering the notoriously slow power start to his Cubs career (not hitting his first home run until May 1, 2007) and his awful start last year (hitting below .200 as late as May 9).
April 7: Astros 3, Cubs 2 (10)
Saw: Inning three through end of game
Wandy Rodriguez isn't exactly Sandy Koufax, but he pitches well at home - in 2008, his ERA there was just 2.99. The Cubs struggled against him in this one, managing just four hits (though they also drew three walks); Soriano struck out three times and was so happy to see LaTroy Hawkins in the 8th that he hit a moon shot off him that nearly left the stadium entirely, tying the game at 2. Dempster pitched all right, getting a quality start, but the bullpen was up and down. Guzman looked pretty good, but Heilman, Cotts and Gregg all had one issue or another. When the first two reached against Cotts in the 10th, it was pretty clearly over. Gregg, as I predicted, has underwhelmed so far. On the other hand, Wood underwhelmed to start last year (having a horrid outing on Opening Day), so we should probably reserve judgment for now.
April 8: Cubs 11, Astros 6
Saw: Bottom third through bottom fifth, and the last two outs
By the time I got home, it was already 8-2. The home run that made it 8-4 was a typical Lilly home run, the hanger at about 85 (if even) that I feel like I could hit out half the time. Russ Ortiz didn't throw a single pitch above the knees, I think, which of course meant he racked up a big run of strikeouts while the Astros started to chip at the 8-0 lead the Cubs had built off Brian Moehler. The Cubs finally picked up on "he's not actually throwing strikes" in the fifth, loading the bases on three walks and chasing Ortiz. Ramirez then doubled off the scoreboard to score two more (actually bouncing a tile out of the hand-operated scoreboard). Fontenot ended the inning, but with the lead back to 10-4, I decided to watch my DVR'ed Lost episode. I got back just in time to see the last couple outs. Not the most impressive game for Cubs pitching - five homers? I ask you - but hey, a win is a win, and 11 runs is pretty nice. Also, Fukudome was 4-for-5 with a walk and a home run. Is this his early season form again, or might he actually be back on the ball this year? Well, ask again in a couple months.
First opening-season series win since 2003 at the Mets (when the two winning pitchers were Wood and Prior). Heck, I'll take it.
April 6: Cubs 4, Astros 2
Saw: 9th inning (plus heard 8th on WGN)
Didn't see much of this one; I was still at work when it started and didn't get to a TV until the ninth inning. The bottom of the inning was plenty nerve-wracking, but hey, I saw the win. The box score shows Zambrano pitched fairly well in earning his first-ever Opening Day win (although he actually pitched better last year in a no-decision, statistically), and you have to like Soriano starting the year with a home run considering the notoriously slow power start to his Cubs career (not hitting his first home run until May 1, 2007) and his awful start last year (hitting below .200 as late as May 9).
April 7: Astros 3, Cubs 2 (10)
Saw: Inning three through end of game
Wandy Rodriguez isn't exactly Sandy Koufax, but he pitches well at home - in 2008, his ERA there was just 2.99. The Cubs struggled against him in this one, managing just four hits (though they also drew three walks); Soriano struck out three times and was so happy to see LaTroy Hawkins in the 8th that he hit a moon shot off him that nearly left the stadium entirely, tying the game at 2. Dempster pitched all right, getting a quality start, but the bullpen was up and down. Guzman looked pretty good, but Heilman, Cotts and Gregg all had one issue or another. When the first two reached against Cotts in the 10th, it was pretty clearly over. Gregg, as I predicted, has underwhelmed so far. On the other hand, Wood underwhelmed to start last year (having a horrid outing on Opening Day), so we should probably reserve judgment for now.
April 8: Cubs 11, Astros 6
Saw: Bottom third through bottom fifth, and the last two outs
By the time I got home, it was already 8-2. The home run that made it 8-4 was a typical Lilly home run, the hanger at about 85 (if even) that I feel like I could hit out half the time. Russ Ortiz didn't throw a single pitch above the knees, I think, which of course meant he racked up a big run of strikeouts while the Astros started to chip at the 8-0 lead the Cubs had built off Brian Moehler. The Cubs finally picked up on "he's not actually throwing strikes" in the fifth, loading the bases on three walks and chasing Ortiz. Ramirez then doubled off the scoreboard to score two more (actually bouncing a tile out of the hand-operated scoreboard). Fontenot ended the inning, but with the lead back to 10-4, I decided to watch my DVR'ed Lost episode. I got back just in time to see the last couple outs. Not the most impressive game for Cubs pitching - five homers? I ask you - but hey, a win is a win, and 11 runs is pretty nice. Also, Fukudome was 4-for-5 with a walk and a home run. Is this his early season form again, or might he actually be back on the ball this year? Well, ask again in a couple months.
First opening-season series win since 2003 at the Mets (when the two winning pitchers were Wood and Prior). Heck, I'll take it.
Sunday, April 05, 2009
Here Comes Your 2009th Nervous Breakdown
Baseball season is finally back. The 2008 Cubs have faded in the rearview mirror, and it's time to see if the new iteration can improve on their result. Let's do a position-by-position look at the '09 Cubs compared to the 97-win squad of '08.
First Base
'08: Derrek Lee (.291/.361/.462, 20 HR, 90 RBI)
'09: Derrek Lee
Lee returns for his sixth season starting at first base for the Cubs, and with the exception of his lost 2006, they've all been at least pretty good. But 2005 looks more and more like a fluke year, and whether or not the wrist injury is responsible for his loss of power, the fact remains that Lee cannot be considered a 30-homer threat until/unless he actually does it again. It's not clear that Lee belongs in the 3-hole at this point of his career, but it seems like he's going to end up there. (Oddly, run simulators seem to suggest that it's beneficial not to put your best hitter in the third slot. So maybe this will work fine.)
Second Base
'08: Mark DeRosa (.285/.376/.481, 21 HR, 87 RBI)
'09: Mike Fontenot
That's right - last year the Cubs got more production from their second baseman than their first baseman. You could certainly argue that the Cubs sold high on DeRosa - he's even older than Lee and only just had his career year? - but it's hard to argue that they couldn't use numbers like that from the middle infield, and his all-purpose utility ways were certainly handy last year. With the potentially fragile Milton Bradley manning right field, maybe it wouldn't have been so bad to keep DeRosa. Fontenot hit in his PAs last year, putting up even higher slashes than DeRo did, and the fact that he's a lefty clearly helped, but a dropoff in production from this position seems inevitable.
Shortstop
'08: Ryan Theriot (.307/.387/.359, 73/58 BB/K, 22/13 SB/CS)
'09: Ryan Theriot
Riot's 2007 28/4 SB/CS ratio clearly made him think he could steal bases; last year took the wind out of those sails. If Theriot can maintain a .300 average and an OBP in the high .300s, that would probably be adequate, especially if he's asked to bat 8th instead of 2nd as he often was last year. Most fielding metrics find him below average at short, and he has less than no power, so he'd better get on base.
Third Base
'08: Aramis Ramirez (.289/.380/.518, 27 HR, 111 RBI)
'09: Aramis Ramirez
Ramirez's 2008 was a little weird - on the one hand, he marked a career high in walks and OBP, but on the other, his slugging was its lowest in five full seasons with the Cubs. Assuming health, 25-30 homers and 100 RBI or more seem likely, especially hitting in the fifth spot, a prime RBI position if Lee and Bradley get on base like they're supposed to. Overall, Rami has been one of the most consistent Cubs of the last few years, and he'll need to maintain that production for this team to win.
Left Field
'08: Alfonso Soriano (.280/.344/.532, 29 HR, 75 RBI)
'09: Alfonso Soriano
As always, the key to Soriano will be his health. Last year he smacked 29 homers despite playing in just 109 games, which equals 43 over a full season. Another broken hand seems unlikely (knock on wood), but we could certainly see more of the nagging injuries that limited him to 135 games in 2007, especially since he's only getting older (and really, who knows if he's only 33?). Anything less than 30 home runs out of Soriano this year is probably a bad sign.
Center Field
'08: Jim Edmonds (.256/.369/.568, 19 HR and 49 RBI in 298 PAs) and Reed Johnson (.303/.358/.420, 6 HR and 50 RBI in 374 PAs)
'09: Reed Johnson and Kosuke Fukudome
The relatively unexpected power surge that Edmonds delivered to this position isn't likely to repeat, since neither Johnson nor Fukudome is a high-power guy. For that matter, what to expect out of Fukudome is entirely unclear; watching him bat in the second half of last year was pretty depressing given how great he looked the first couple of months. Like most Cubs fans, I still desperately want the guy to hit, and at least he can take a walk now and again (leading the team last year with 81), but the days of thinking he could pop 20 homers out of Wrigley and go for a .400 OBP like last year's PECOTA projected are long gone. (For the record, this year's PECOTA pegs Kosuke at .386, which still seems awfully optimistic. But hey, Hideki Matsui improved in his second year in America.)
Right Field
'08: Kosuke Fukudome (.257/.359/.379, 10 HR, 58 RBI, 81/104 BB/K)
'09: Milton Bradley
Since Fukudome turned out not to be the world-beating left-handed right fielder the Cubs wanted after the '07 season, they went after another one in Bradley - and arguably took at least as big of a gamble. For all Fukudome's lack of production post-June, at least he could run out there every day and played above-average defense. Just what Bradley is going to turn in in those departments is really anyone's guess. He had a great season last year, leading the AL in on-base percentage (.436!) and OPS (.999), but he also played just 20 games in the field (and just 126 overall). In fact, just once in his career has he been an everyday outfielder and played more or less a full season - 2004, when his OPS was a mere .786. His career stats are much higher in the AL - not having to field probably helped. And ironically, Bradley is actually a switch-hitter who hits better against lefties while batting RH than against righties while batting LH. Eesh. Still, I would hope the Cubs at least did their research on the injury front, and Bradley tore up the spring, hitting .460/.526/.800 (!!!) in 50 at-bats. Yes, that's just spring, but it's a good start.
Bench
'08: Mike Fontenot, Ronny Cedeno, Henry Blanco, Felix Pie, Daryle Ward, Micah Hoffpauir
'09: Koyie Hill, Aaron Miles, Micah Hoffpauir, Joey Gathright
Not the most intimidating bench. Hoffpauir flashes power in spring and the minors, but he's been mired behind Derrek Lee at first and can't really play anywhere else (to paraphrase Christina Kahrl at Baseball Prospectus, he plays the outfield corners in the sense that he's happy to run out there if you give him a glove), which means he's likely relegated to pinch-hit duties for most of the year, especially if Lee plays 155 games again. Miles is clearly a downgrade from DeRosa from a hitting standpoint, but he can also play anywhere; expect him to log a lot of games in right and left if Soriano and Bradley have years anywhere similar to last from an injury standpoint. A team with DeRosa hitting 21 homers could survive such outages; Miles' career high is 6, accomplished at Coors Field in 2004. On the bright side, he hit .317 last year for St. Louis and can switch-hit. Hill should be a similar non-factor on offense to Blanco, though he had a monster spring; the real loss in Hank White's departure is his veteran presence and defense, though Soto should have the latter covered anyway. As for Gathright, it's unclear why he was considered an upgrade over Felix Pie, who at least had the redeeming quality of still having potential. Gathright basically looks like a Juan Pierre clone on paper, although possibly even less talented, and we all remember how that turned out. I suppose if Pie wasn't going to play regularly anyway then it's probably a wash as to who sat on the bench between him and Gathright, but it struck me as an odd move even at the time.
Starting Pitching
'08: Carlos Zambrano (14-6, 3.91), Ryan Dempster (17-6, 2.96), Ted Lilly (17-9, 4.09), Jason Marquis (11-9, 4.53), Rich Harden (5-1, 1.77)
'09: Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly, Rich Harden, Sean Marshall
Zambrano lowered both his walks (which had been soaring) and strikeouts last year by largely pitching to contact, which unfortunately led to some ugly games, especially late in the year. It's also been speculated for some time that Zambrano has had lingering arm issues that would eventually blow up completely. He seems healthy this spring, but let's see how he looks in Houston. Dempster seems ripe for a regression, so let's just hope he doesn't fall back to the pack too much. Lilly probably will be what he will be - 15 wins, era around 4, bunch of home runs allowed - while Harden is something of an enigma even if he can stay healthy. Marshall should be an upgrade over Marquis, but just how much of an upgrade remains to be seen.
Relief Pitching
'08: Carlos Marmol, Bob Howry, Michael Wuertz, Neal Cotts, Sean Marshall, Jon Lieber, Jeff Samardzija, Kevin Hart, Chad Gaudin, Scott Eyre
'09: Carlos Marmol, Aaron Heilman, Neal Cotts, Angel Guzman, David Patton, Luis Vizcaino
Marmol's mediocre spring leaves him stuck in the 8th-inning role for now, which apparently disappointed him, hopefully not so much that he'll struggle. Heilman had a great spring; so did Patton, strangely, seeing as he's never pitched above Class A before. The rest of the pen is just "who had the least awful spring" - Cotts, Vizcaino and Guzman all had ERAs over 5, but had the good fortune not to pitch quite as badly as Chad Gaudin (released after signing a $2 million contract to avoid arbitration), Kevin Hart or Jeff Samardzija (both of whom had options and so headed back to Iowa). I imagine the hook will be quick if the middle relief struggles, though - with a couple years at most left in the win-the-World-Series window, the Cubs can't afford to turn into the Mets. Relief pitching was mostly a strength last year; it needs to be again.
Closer
'08: Kerry Wood (5-4, 3.26 ERA, 34 SV, 6 BS)
'09: Kevin Gregg
The sabermetric community frowned on the Gregg trade (he was acquired for Jose Ceda, a flamethrowing prospect who some said was a better pitcher than Gregg right now), but so far it seems all right - in the spring, Gregg made 11 appearances and didn't yield a single earned run. Of course, it's the spring - how often do the best players come up late in games? It's more likely that Gregg fattened his line on guys who will be in AA tomorrow if they aren't already. He'll probably be an adequate closer - 30 saves, 3.50 ERA - but this was probably a step down. Of course, if Gregg struggles, at least Marmol's there to step in.
All told, I'm definitely not without my worries for this year's team. Last year's team really seemed like it should have won it all - 97 regular season wins, career years from Dempster and DeRosa, a killer one-two punch at the end of games reminiscent of Rivera-to-Wetteland on the '96 Yankees. This year's team probably won't win 97 games, doesn't have that same one-two punch unless Gregg proves us all wrong, and looking at the roster I just don't see how anyone is likely to outperform last year's counterpart at their position significantly, unless it's Bradley. After all the talk of not repeating last year's embarrassing NLDS departure, did this team really even improve, in the final analysis?
It seems like the Cubs are primed to make the playoffs again. Milwaukee has taken two steps backwards, St. Louis hasn't really upgraded after overachieving last year (although a healthy Chris Carpenter would make a big difference for them), the Reds still seem too young to me, and Pittsburgh and Houston have been predicted by everyone to be awful. I still hate being the favorite, though. We've reached a point in the last decade where it's suddenly become a disappointment if the Cubs don't make the playoffs - or don't make the LCS or World Series - rather than a pleasant surprise when they do. And while no one wants to go through life rooting for a team that can only be counted on to make "pleasant surprise" playoff appearances, I'm not sure I'm a fan of being in the position of just coasting through the summer waiting for the playoffs to start. Which is ironic since I hate watching the Cubs lose, and any team that wins most of its games comfortably is clearly going to be a playoff lock.
I don't know. Much like last year, I'm looking forward to the season, but I'm also dreading it. Does that make sense?
First Base
'08: Derrek Lee (.291/.361/.462, 20 HR, 90 RBI)
'09: Derrek Lee
Lee returns for his sixth season starting at first base for the Cubs, and with the exception of his lost 2006, they've all been at least pretty good. But 2005 looks more and more like a fluke year, and whether or not the wrist injury is responsible for his loss of power, the fact remains that Lee cannot be considered a 30-homer threat until/unless he actually does it again. It's not clear that Lee belongs in the 3-hole at this point of his career, but it seems like he's going to end up there. (Oddly, run simulators seem to suggest that it's beneficial not to put your best hitter in the third slot. So maybe this will work fine.)
Second Base
'08: Mark DeRosa (.285/.376/.481, 21 HR, 87 RBI)
'09: Mike Fontenot
That's right - last year the Cubs got more production from their second baseman than their first baseman. You could certainly argue that the Cubs sold high on DeRosa - he's even older than Lee and only just had his career year? - but it's hard to argue that they couldn't use numbers like that from the middle infield, and his all-purpose utility ways were certainly handy last year. With the potentially fragile Milton Bradley manning right field, maybe it wouldn't have been so bad to keep DeRosa. Fontenot hit in his PAs last year, putting up even higher slashes than DeRo did, and the fact that he's a lefty clearly helped, but a dropoff in production from this position seems inevitable.
Shortstop
'08: Ryan Theriot (.307/.387/.359, 73/58 BB/K, 22/13 SB/CS)
'09: Ryan Theriot
Riot's 2007 28/4 SB/CS ratio clearly made him think he could steal bases; last year took the wind out of those sails. If Theriot can maintain a .300 average and an OBP in the high .300s, that would probably be adequate, especially if he's asked to bat 8th instead of 2nd as he often was last year. Most fielding metrics find him below average at short, and he has less than no power, so he'd better get on base.
Third Base
'08: Aramis Ramirez (.289/.380/.518, 27 HR, 111 RBI)
'09: Aramis Ramirez
Ramirez's 2008 was a little weird - on the one hand, he marked a career high in walks and OBP, but on the other, his slugging was its lowest in five full seasons with the Cubs. Assuming health, 25-30 homers and 100 RBI or more seem likely, especially hitting in the fifth spot, a prime RBI position if Lee and Bradley get on base like they're supposed to. Overall, Rami has been one of the most consistent Cubs of the last few years, and he'll need to maintain that production for this team to win.
Left Field
'08: Alfonso Soriano (.280/.344/.532, 29 HR, 75 RBI)
'09: Alfonso Soriano
As always, the key to Soriano will be his health. Last year he smacked 29 homers despite playing in just 109 games, which equals 43 over a full season. Another broken hand seems unlikely (knock on wood), but we could certainly see more of the nagging injuries that limited him to 135 games in 2007, especially since he's only getting older (and really, who knows if he's only 33?). Anything less than 30 home runs out of Soriano this year is probably a bad sign.
Center Field
'08: Jim Edmonds (.256/.369/.568, 19 HR and 49 RBI in 298 PAs) and Reed Johnson (.303/.358/.420, 6 HR and 50 RBI in 374 PAs)
'09: Reed Johnson and Kosuke Fukudome
The relatively unexpected power surge that Edmonds delivered to this position isn't likely to repeat, since neither Johnson nor Fukudome is a high-power guy. For that matter, what to expect out of Fukudome is entirely unclear; watching him bat in the second half of last year was pretty depressing given how great he looked the first couple of months. Like most Cubs fans, I still desperately want the guy to hit, and at least he can take a walk now and again (leading the team last year with 81), but the days of thinking he could pop 20 homers out of Wrigley and go for a .400 OBP like last year's PECOTA projected are long gone. (For the record, this year's PECOTA pegs Kosuke at .386, which still seems awfully optimistic. But hey, Hideki Matsui improved in his second year in America.)
Right Field
'08: Kosuke Fukudome (.257/.359/.379, 10 HR, 58 RBI, 81/104 BB/K)
'09: Milton Bradley
Since Fukudome turned out not to be the world-beating left-handed right fielder the Cubs wanted after the '07 season, they went after another one in Bradley - and arguably took at least as big of a gamble. For all Fukudome's lack of production post-June, at least he could run out there every day and played above-average defense. Just what Bradley is going to turn in in those departments is really anyone's guess. He had a great season last year, leading the AL in on-base percentage (.436!) and OPS (.999), but he also played just 20 games in the field (and just 126 overall). In fact, just once in his career has he been an everyday outfielder and played more or less a full season - 2004, when his OPS was a mere .786. His career stats are much higher in the AL - not having to field probably helped. And ironically, Bradley is actually a switch-hitter who hits better against lefties while batting RH than against righties while batting LH. Eesh. Still, I would hope the Cubs at least did their research on the injury front, and Bradley tore up the spring, hitting .460/.526/.800 (!!!) in 50 at-bats. Yes, that's just spring, but it's a good start.
Bench
'08: Mike Fontenot, Ronny Cedeno, Henry Blanco, Felix Pie, Daryle Ward, Micah Hoffpauir
'09: Koyie Hill, Aaron Miles, Micah Hoffpauir, Joey Gathright
Not the most intimidating bench. Hoffpauir flashes power in spring and the minors, but he's been mired behind Derrek Lee at first and can't really play anywhere else (to paraphrase Christina Kahrl at Baseball Prospectus, he plays the outfield corners in the sense that he's happy to run out there if you give him a glove), which means he's likely relegated to pinch-hit duties for most of the year, especially if Lee plays 155 games again. Miles is clearly a downgrade from DeRosa from a hitting standpoint, but he can also play anywhere; expect him to log a lot of games in right and left if Soriano and Bradley have years anywhere similar to last from an injury standpoint. A team with DeRosa hitting 21 homers could survive such outages; Miles' career high is 6, accomplished at Coors Field in 2004. On the bright side, he hit .317 last year for St. Louis and can switch-hit. Hill should be a similar non-factor on offense to Blanco, though he had a monster spring; the real loss in Hank White's departure is his veteran presence and defense, though Soto should have the latter covered anyway. As for Gathright, it's unclear why he was considered an upgrade over Felix Pie, who at least had the redeeming quality of still having potential. Gathright basically looks like a Juan Pierre clone on paper, although possibly even less talented, and we all remember how that turned out. I suppose if Pie wasn't going to play regularly anyway then it's probably a wash as to who sat on the bench between him and Gathright, but it struck me as an odd move even at the time.
Starting Pitching
'08: Carlos Zambrano (14-6, 3.91), Ryan Dempster (17-6, 2.96), Ted Lilly (17-9, 4.09), Jason Marquis (11-9, 4.53), Rich Harden (5-1, 1.77)
'09: Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly, Rich Harden, Sean Marshall
Zambrano lowered both his walks (which had been soaring) and strikeouts last year by largely pitching to contact, which unfortunately led to some ugly games, especially late in the year. It's also been speculated for some time that Zambrano has had lingering arm issues that would eventually blow up completely. He seems healthy this spring, but let's see how he looks in Houston. Dempster seems ripe for a regression, so let's just hope he doesn't fall back to the pack too much. Lilly probably will be what he will be - 15 wins, era around 4, bunch of home runs allowed - while Harden is something of an enigma even if he can stay healthy. Marshall should be an upgrade over Marquis, but just how much of an upgrade remains to be seen.
Relief Pitching
'08: Carlos Marmol, Bob Howry, Michael Wuertz, Neal Cotts, Sean Marshall, Jon Lieber, Jeff Samardzija, Kevin Hart, Chad Gaudin, Scott Eyre
'09: Carlos Marmol, Aaron Heilman, Neal Cotts, Angel Guzman, David Patton, Luis Vizcaino
Marmol's mediocre spring leaves him stuck in the 8th-inning role for now, which apparently disappointed him, hopefully not so much that he'll struggle. Heilman had a great spring; so did Patton, strangely, seeing as he's never pitched above Class A before. The rest of the pen is just "who had the least awful spring" - Cotts, Vizcaino and Guzman all had ERAs over 5, but had the good fortune not to pitch quite as badly as Chad Gaudin (released after signing a $2 million contract to avoid arbitration), Kevin Hart or Jeff Samardzija (both of whom had options and so headed back to Iowa). I imagine the hook will be quick if the middle relief struggles, though - with a couple years at most left in the win-the-World-Series window, the Cubs can't afford to turn into the Mets. Relief pitching was mostly a strength last year; it needs to be again.
Closer
'08: Kerry Wood (5-4, 3.26 ERA, 34 SV, 6 BS)
'09: Kevin Gregg
The sabermetric community frowned on the Gregg trade (he was acquired for Jose Ceda, a flamethrowing prospect who some said was a better pitcher than Gregg right now), but so far it seems all right - in the spring, Gregg made 11 appearances and didn't yield a single earned run. Of course, it's the spring - how often do the best players come up late in games? It's more likely that Gregg fattened his line on guys who will be in AA tomorrow if they aren't already. He'll probably be an adequate closer - 30 saves, 3.50 ERA - but this was probably a step down. Of course, if Gregg struggles, at least Marmol's there to step in.
All told, I'm definitely not without my worries for this year's team. Last year's team really seemed like it should have won it all - 97 regular season wins, career years from Dempster and DeRosa, a killer one-two punch at the end of games reminiscent of Rivera-to-Wetteland on the '96 Yankees. This year's team probably won't win 97 games, doesn't have that same one-two punch unless Gregg proves us all wrong, and looking at the roster I just don't see how anyone is likely to outperform last year's counterpart at their position significantly, unless it's Bradley. After all the talk of not repeating last year's embarrassing NLDS departure, did this team really even improve, in the final analysis?
It seems like the Cubs are primed to make the playoffs again. Milwaukee has taken two steps backwards, St. Louis hasn't really upgraded after overachieving last year (although a healthy Chris Carpenter would make a big difference for them), the Reds still seem too young to me, and Pittsburgh and Houston have been predicted by everyone to be awful. I still hate being the favorite, though. We've reached a point in the last decade where it's suddenly become a disappointment if the Cubs don't make the playoffs - or don't make the LCS or World Series - rather than a pleasant surprise when they do. And while no one wants to go through life rooting for a team that can only be counted on to make "pleasant surprise" playoff appearances, I'm not sure I'm a fan of being in the position of just coasting through the summer waiting for the playoffs to start. Which is ironic since I hate watching the Cubs lose, and any team that wins most of its games comfortably is clearly going to be a playoff lock.
I don't know. Much like last year, I'm looking forward to the season, but I'm also dreading it. Does that make sense?
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